2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana  (Read 37080 times)
Alcibiades
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

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« on: December 18, 2020, 07:47:00 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?
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Alcibiades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2020, 10:45:00 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?
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Alcibiades
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Posts: 3,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2021, 11:40:42 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.

Are you saying this AR-02-esque seat will be centred around Baton Rouge?
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Alcibiades
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2021, 06:46:54 PM »

They would have to start messing with black majority districts to get Democrats that low.

i'm not sure if those are still required or what the minimum number of such Louisiana needs to have

Why would they not still be required?
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