2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana  (Read 37078 times)
lfromnj
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« on: November 17, 2019, 05:34:18 PM »
« edited: November 17, 2019, 05:44:20 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

If I was JBE I would request the GOP a map like this


Why?
Its a compromise map first of all
2nd of all it includes his home parish so he could run here.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2019, 11:45:12 PM »

It occurs to me that Justice Thomas is basically a sure vote to strike the current version of LA-02 or a 2021 district resembling it if he gets the opportunity, so I do think there will be separate NOLA and BR districts one way or another.  The 5th circuit likely makes a sweeping ruling that the VRA does not apply to redistricting at all, this gets appealed to SCOTUS, and then Roberts and Kavanaugh narrow it.

However, if the end result is VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all and JBE's veto holds, LA gets a 4R/2D map, but AL/MS/SC/TN/MO would then all have free reign to draw a clean GOP sweep if they wanted to.  The total number of Dem districts in Texas and Florida could plausibly be cut in half if drawn aggressively using CVAP and state courts look the other way.  On the other hand, Maryland would easily be a Dem sweep and Virginia could draw a hard 8D/3R if they wanted too.

I also wonder if this would lead to a test case with a state legislature voting to elect its congressional delegation at large?  I think national Dems would push California, New York, and Illinois (CA and NY have commissions, but IDK could they just not give the commission anything to draw?) to try that in VRA doesn't apply to redistricting world.  The Texas and Georgia GOP could try the same, but I think they would decide it was unwise to do that after 2018.     

Only Alabama would be a sure goner, Mississippi is only a +15 Trump state and I doubt they would cut it up perfectly when you have parochial concerns.
TN is in a nice little corner and its super D so Cohen should be safe,
Lacy Clay is in a similar situation and Missouri needs atleast 1 D sink to avoid a dummymander
SC- i mean its Trump +15 and the R's just lost SC 1 so why would they want to risk a dummymander here especially when upstate won't represent low country.

Can't talk about Florida or Texas.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2019, 10:38:04 AM »



Wasserman's map as usual is rather simple and ignores the finer points like incumbent preferences.

Looks quite good, looking at it from a glance it looks like JBE's hometown of Amite is in that district, national D's may not like JBE in a Likely D district but JBE does deserve a future career and he probably does make the district Safe D even during R waves.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2019, 06:32:24 PM »

Note that 538's Atlas of Redistricting believes that the current map is a pro-Republican gerrymander, while a 4R-2D map (with no swing districts) would be the most pro-Democratic gerrymander, as well as the most proportionally partisan and the one with the most majority-minority districts (2). It also believes that it is possible to create two swing districts (one D-leaning and one R-leaning) by carving up New Orleans.
538s gerrymanders overall a pretty meh. Eg 7 4 Va

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lfromnj
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2020, 07:01:00 PM »

So is Richmond like Clay?
Will he pull a Clay and prevent a 2nd Likely R seat or something?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2020, 07:13:56 PM »



Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2020, 07:21:23 PM »



Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.
Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2020, 07:24:10 PM »



Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.
Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?
No AA seat. Is that a 6-0 map?

Oh my bad the green seat is Safe D. 50.5% black by 2018 pop and 63% D. Purple is Lean to Likely R at Trump +7.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2020, 07:26:09 PM »



Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.
Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?
No AA seat. Is that a 6-0 map?

Oh my bad the green seat is Safe D. 50.5% black by 2018 pop and 63% D. Purple is Lean to Likely R at Trump +7.
Would an AA candidate likely win the green one?

Do the math. 50.5% black and 63.5% D. The answer is yes.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 12:24:22 AM »



Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.
Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?
No AA seat. Is that a 6-0 map?

Oh my bad the green seat is Safe D. 50.5% black by 2018 pop and 63% D. Purple is Lean to Likely R at Trump +7.
Would an AA candidate likely win the green one?

Do the math. 50.5% black and 63.5% D. The answer is yes.
I still think it might elect a white Democrat in a midterm.
No. African-Americans are monolitically Democratic, so even a 35-40% AA VAP district would probably be functional (AAs would make up 35-40% of the voting population but >60% of the Democrats, and could thus elect their candidate of choice).
In Louisiana, only 35% or 40% black would vote gop

well New Orleans + Jefferson is like 40% black and almost exactly 1 district and still about Safe D.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 12:36:47 AM »



Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.
Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?
No AA seat. Is that a 6-0 map?

Oh my bad the green seat is Safe D. 50.5% black by 2018 pop and 63% D. Purple is Lean to Likely R at Trump +7.
Would an AA candidate likely win the green one?

Do the math. 50.5% black and 63.5% D. The answer is yes.
I still think it might elect a white Democrat in a midterm.
No. African-Americans are monolitically Democratic, so even a 35-40% AA VAP district would probably be functional (AAs would make up 35-40% of the voting population but >60% of the Democrats, and could thus elect their candidate of choice).
In Louisiana, only 35% or 40% black would vote gop

well New Orleans + Jefferson is like 40% black and almost exactly 1 district and still about Safe D.
Better to go 50% to avoid litigation


Well the real reason you can't do a NO +Jefferson district is merely cause the eastern 2 counties wouldn't have road contiguity then. So I just decided to treat North and south Jefferson(river) as seperate counties.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2020, 10:38:29 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2020, 11:03:17 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2021, 11:09:21 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2021, 11:43:26 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.

Are you saying this AR-02-esque seat will be centred around Baton Rouge?

Yes if it goes to the courts.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2021, 10:39:33 AM »

Yeah sorry, I'm in the habit of drawing maps as if they were drawn by a commission--my map is probably not too realistic, thought I think it's decent?


Sure it's decent, but Livingston County is really the suburbs of Baton Rouge, rather than exurbs of NO.



I don't disagree, but IMO Houma in with St. Tammany is worse--putting one of the Florida parishes in with non-NOLA area Acadiana is bad CoI.

Look at my maps for an earlier version, just start with East/North Jefferson Parish(whiter side compared to mixed south/West side) and then go to St Tammany.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2021, 11:55:38 AM »

BTW didn't Louisiana just propose/pass an amendment to change the size (and by necessity change the districts) of the state supreme court from 7 to 9 justices?  I believe this was a bipartisan affair and one of the goals was to have 3 black-majority districts instead of the current 1? 

I think it failed in the house. Also I think 9 seats only gives 2 black majority really regarding an Orleans and Baton Rouge seat.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2021, 12:00:22 AM »

https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-census-2020-baton-rouge-redistricting-louisiana-supreme-court-d095ea2632e15a74f11bdb00764a6a8e



As of right now the most overpopulated is the Baton Rouge district at 850k while the Orleans district is 430k. Ideal is around 650k. Expanding New Orleans doesn't really hurt Democrats as it would still be Safe D while the Baton Rouge district losing 200k R areas would make it a lightly dem trending swing district. As far as I see county splits have been done in the New Orleans area. As Supreme court districts don't have strict standards for deviation I decided to treat East and West Jefferson Parish as separate Parish's and accept the extra deviation .
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2022, 09:22:01 PM »

Seems like all plans so far make a Baton-Rouge based swingy-Dem leaning seat. Are any of these plans actually official plans though proposed by the legistlature?

NAACP Plan3 is pretty ridiculous as it tries to connect Baton Rouge with Shreveport to create a Black Majority district

No, the legislature might either just decide it to offer a compromise Livingston BR seat or just send it through the courts and hope for least change.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2022, 01:58:40 PM »


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lfromnj
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2022, 08:01:46 PM »

https://archive.fo/nLyzF

On the black Democrat who supported the 5-1 plan.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2022, 02:41:37 PM »



SCOTUS effectively wants to combine this with the Alabama case.
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