2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Mr.Phips]

Important update: In a surprise move, the Louisiana House of Representatives just elected a new speaker with support from all 35 Democrats, both independents and a group of 23 renegade moderate Republicans.  This means de facto coalition control of the chamber for the next 4 years and therefore a stronger Dem hand in redistricting.  This also presumably ends any possibility of 2 Dems or Indies switching to create a Republican supermajority.

I wouldn't say moderate, maybe 'traditional' is a better word. Historically, the LA house elected the Governors nominee for speaker similar to a French style of politics. This was done even if the parties divided on control of the executive and the legislature. This tradition ended  in 2015 with the election of Barras. The people who backed Schexnayder have been described as those who have historically been able to work across factions in the past (who possess various ideologies), a term that should not be confused with moderates. His election should be seen as a slight return to the older traditions, not a total coup.

However, it is correct that the end conclusion that this makes LA increasingly likely to head into the 2021 with divided powers in regards to redistricting. More committee powers means less ability to ignore the dems. The situation also increases the chance a 'corrupt bargain' emerges where one side trades powers over one map for powers  over another - but this is in no way guaranteed.

State legislative Dems really let Jindal pick Republican Speakers both times.  Wow.

I could easily see an offer to let the incumbent Dems draw all of their own seats and maybe make some of the R seats not in the ruling coalition more competitiive or create new minority opportunity seats in exchange for supplying the veto override for the state senate's 5R/1D congressional map.  Remember, Dems have more to lose in the state legislature if it goes to court because the state supreme court (partisan elected R majority) draws the maps.  It's a very similar dynamic to VA 2011, where Dems knew they didn't have a prayer of holding the state senate on a court-drawn map.

I would expect VRA suits regarding the congressional map to continue either way.  It's conceivable a 5/1 NOLA-BR district map passed by veto override gets thrown out mid-decade like the VA maps, especially if Roberts or someone more liberal is still the SCOTUS swing vote. 

There are very few Dems left in the legislature who are not in safe districts.

[Mr.Phips]

My attempt at creating a state Senate fair map. I am almost completely sure I didn't include enough VRA districts but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interestingly my map ended with many competitive districts despite Louisiana being a very inelastic state



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f289c3a9-53e5-42c4-b1b1-26a0b68e92af

There should be 9 Safe D districts, 6 competitive districts and 24 Safe R districts.

Tipping point districts are district 7 (Trump+24, R+16; Located western Jefferson parish and northeastern St. Charles parish) and district 18 (covers south Baton Rouge and a tiny bit of Iberville parish)

After the veto session we just had, I’m wondering what’s the most Republican you can get the State House and State Senate… Republicans have a veto proof majority if they can keep all of their votes, but I wonder if new maps can stack it even further in our legislature, like 80-25 in the House and 30-9 in the Senate

They would have to start messing with black majority districts to get Democrats that low.

[Mr.Phips]

I can’t remember the answer, but do Republicans have veto override numbers on JBE? If not, I bet he could hold off for a competitive 2nd Dem district.

i kind of hope LA Republicans can trade a 4R-2D map for even bigger supermajorities in the legislature that would require more defections to derail Republican priorities. We had the veto session recently and R's didn't accomplish what they came there to do because some were claiming dubious travel restrictions due to curiously timed knee surgery, etc. as the Republican speaker of the state house publicly admitted he didn't want to do his job and whip votes. Those overrides failed by like one or two votes and JBE and the Democrats gloated.

You’d have to eliminate a handful of black influence and black majority districts in the House for that, which can’t happen due to the VRA.

[Mr.Phips]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

Strike it down and order a more compact black majority district to be drawn?