2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[I’m not Stu]

Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.

Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

[I’m not Stu]

Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.

Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?

No AA seat? Is that a 6-0 map?

[I’m not Stu]

Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.

Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?

No AA seat. Is that a 6-0 map?

Oh my bad the green seat is Safe D. 50.5% black by 2018 pop and 63% D. Purple is Lean to Likely R at Trump +7.

Would an AA candidate likely win the green one?

[I’m not Stu]

Anyway heres my fair LA map, 1 Safe R, 1 Likely R and 4 Safe R. Baton Rouge district is Trump +7.3 and trending left but is still deep south.



Obviously crossed the lake and took in East Jefferson Parish which is quite different from West Jefferson Parish.

Fair map? That’s an illegal map.

How is it illegal?

No AA seat. Is that a 6-0 map?

Oh my bad the green seat is Safe D. 50.5% black by 2018 pop and 63% D. Purple is Lean to Likely R at Trump +7.

Would an AA candidate likely win the green one?

Do the math. 50.5% black and 63.5% D. The answer is yes.

I still think it might elect a white Democrat in a midterm.

[I’m not Stu]

My map has a high minority rights rating and proportionality rating. My VRA district is the most compact I was able to get with majority BCVAP.



Partisan composition.

[I’m not Stu]

My map has a high minority rights rating and proportionality rating. My VRA district is the most compact I was able to get with majority BCVAP.
Partisan composition.

Majority BVAP is not a legal requirement if a district is otherwise minority performing, and indeed could itself be illegal if deemed a gerrymandered CD which "minority packs," diluting minority influence in other districts to their detriment.

No. I got a high minority rights rating on DRA. That should be good. I made sure to do so. My VRA district is 51.1% BCVAP. My Baton Rouge district is more Democratic than any of the GOP districts on the current real map. I made Garret Graves' district significantly more Democratic. I wasn't able to draw two vaguely compact performing districts.

[I’m not Stu]

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA

Well here's the reason I ask:

It's ugly as sin but it sort of has to be if you want a 4-2 map. Blue is about 53% black 40% white by CVAP, Green is about 56% black 40% white. I wish I could have made the New Orleans seat from only Orleans and Jefferson parishes, but unfortunately I don't think the math works out for it to be black enough. Anyways obviously none of these districts are competitive, blue went for Clinton like 70-30, green like 65-30, and Trump clears 70 in all the other districts (excepts Higgins's, and then only barely). However, as you can see, Scalise and Higgins keep their districts pretty much intact, and Johnson and Abraham's districts are sorta similar, but Graves gets hacked apart, which is unfortunate when Abraham is retiring anyway.

(those faint lines are the current districts)

Here's the link (I think): https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae60bd2f-d8e3-4e5f-af55-64d8fcf31748

That isn't legal. The green district isn't compact enough. Louisiana had two majority-minority districts in the early 1990s, which were struck down in court for not being compact enough. I drew a 4-1-1 map with a swing district that narrowly voted for Clinton in 2016.

Updated map.



Partisan composition.

[I’m not Stu]

I updated my map. There two majority BCVAP districts. Unlike the early 1990s districts that were struck down my second majority-minority district is compact enough to be legal.

With parishes.



With numbers.



Partisan composition.

[I’m not Stu]

Am I the only one here who uses directional numbering of Louisiana?

[I’m not Stu]

I use directional numbering for all 50 states. Who might replace Julia Letlow on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: Troy Carter/Karen Carter Peterson
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: Clay Higgins
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson

[I’m not Stu]

I use directional numbering for all 50 states. Who might replace Julia Letlow on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: Troy Carter/Karen Carter Peterson
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: OPEN
LA-05: Clay Higgins
LA-06: Mike Johnson

If I had to guess, a Baton Rouge Democrat.

Maybe Sharon Weston Broome?

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

Is this what you had in mind?

No. Plaquemines and St. Bernard are still in LA-02 on your map. I would put them somewhere else. I didn't have in mind a three way split of EBR.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

Is this what you had in mind?

No. Plaquemines and St. Bernard are still in LA-02 on your map. I would put them somewhere else. I didn't have in mind a three way split of EBR.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
Duplicate this map and post in thread when you find a solution.

I don't know if that Baton Rouge-Shreveport district is compact enough to be legal.

[I’m not Stu]

Under the test created by Bartlett v. Strickland, a second majority-minority district is required in Louisiana.

[I’m not Stu]

The GOP doesn’t have a veto-proof majority in both houses. The current map faces a lawsuit.

[I’m not Stu]

I just updated my map to make it more compact and have fewer split parishes.

[I’m not Stu]

Proportionally partisan Louisiana (which will never happen, obviously)

LA04: Black belt areas

That LA-04 is illegal because it isn't reasonably compact.

[I’m not Stu]

LA-02 is large plurality BCVAP. LA-05 is majority BCVAP.

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: Clay Higgins
LA-05: Mike Johnson
LA-06: OPEN



Partisanship.

[I’m not Stu]

My take on what a realistic map drawn by the GOP could look like. JBE can veto maps. 5R-1D.

[I’m not Stu]

This is what a more fair GOP map might look like if JBE can veto a ridiculous map. Who might take LA-05 on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Clay Higgins
LA-04: Garret Graves
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson/Julia Letlow



Partisanship.

[I’m not Stu]

This is what a more fair GOP map might look like if JBE can veto a ridiculous map. Who might take LA-05 on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Clay Higgins
LA-04: Garret Graves
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson/Julia Letlow



Partisanship.

The 5th has a lot of territory currently in the 4th.

Yes, but I drew Mike Johnson (R-Bossier Parish) and Julia Letlow (R-Richland Parish) into the same district. Who might take the yellow district on my map?

[I’m not Stu]

I just updated my nonpartisan maps slightly.

[I’m not Stu]

4-2 map with 2020 data.

[I’m not Stu]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.