2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It occurs to me that Justice Thomas is basically a sure vote to strike the current version of LA-02 or a 2021 district resembling it if he gets the opportunity, so I do think there will be separate NOLA and BR districts one way or another.  The 5th circuit likely makes a sweeping ruling that the VRA does not apply to redistricting at all, this gets appealed to SCOTUS, and then Roberts and Kavanaugh narrow it.

However, if the end result is VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all and JBE's veto holds, LA gets a 4R/2D map, but AL/MS/SC/TN/MO would then all have free reign to draw a clean GOP sweep if they wanted to.  The total number of Dem districts in Texas and Florida could plausibly be cut in half if drawn aggressively using CVAP and state courts look the other way.  On the other hand, Maryland would easily be a Dem sweep and Virginia could draw a hard 8D/3R if they wanted too.

I also wonder if this would lead to a test case with a state legislature voting to elect its congressional delegation at large?  I think national Dems would push California, New York, and Illinois (CA and NY have commissions, but IDK could they just not give the commission anything to draw?) to try that in VRA doesn't apply to redistricting world.  The Texas and Georgia GOP could try the same, but I think they would decide it was unwise to do that after 2018.     

Only Alabama would be a sure goner, Mississippi is only a +15 Trump state and I doubt they would cut it up perfectly when you have parochial concerns.
TN is in a nice little corner and its super D so Cohen should be safe,
Lacy Clay is in a similar situation and Missouri needs atleast 1 D sink to avoid a dummymander
SC- i mean its Trump +15 and the R's just lost SC 1 so why would they want to risk a dummymander here especially when upstate won't represent low country.

Can't talk about Florida or Texas.

It looks really ugly, but you can draw a safe 9-0 R map in Tennessee.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do you compactly get two black seats in Louisiana?  When I try, I get a 44% black (but 60% minority) Biden +35 seat in New Orleans and a 42% black Biden +3 seat based in Baton Rouge (and taking in the black precincts of Lafayette).  I guess you need to snake it through my 37% black, Trump +18 Northeast Louisiana district, but would SCOTUS rule differently on that case if it's more of a snake than the Alabama one?

EDIT: Actually, my 37% black district was my Northwestern one.  I can get the BR seat up to 45% black and Biden +5 by going up the river and removing some white Republican parts of East Baton Rouge, but that's still not a safe seat.  And, I don't see SCOTUS going for a snake to Shreveport.