2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Vosem]

There’s a lot of unwarranted assumptions in kwabbit’s response to mine. No, you cannot assume the crossover support she received against a nobody would hold up against a well-funded challenger in a high profile race. Second, there’s no precedence on the federal level of a Republican holding a seat that blue in the House. We’ve had Senate incumbents do welll in blue territory in the south, like Jonny Isakson. But it’s all against no names.

There are several Republicans in seats more Democratic than that one (...all in NY or CA, though, and none really polarized the way this seat is), and the seat suggested in this thread would've been notionally Republican in 2022, although because it wasn't strongly contested this statistic is questionably meaningful. (This is an argument Republican plaintiffs could use, incidentally: one could argue that African-Americans in northern Louisiana fail prong three of the Gingles test, of "voting sufficiently as a bloc to defeat the majority's preferred candidate", even if African-Americans usually pass it elsewhere, since majority-black seats can still elect Republicans under certain circumstances. This is also questionable in, for example, northeastern North Carolina.)

Republicans tended to perform well at open seats with similar demographic profiles in 2022, running like 4-6 points ahead of Biden's numbers depending on the seat in question. That wouldn't be enough to save Letlow, but it would be enough to make it a race, and there were no seats like this in 2022 which already had broadly popular Republican incumbents. (Because of Louisiana's unique electoral system, note that Letlow has had to appeal to black voters before, in R-on-R runoffs; black turnout for these is low but not nonexistent, and she actually did very well.) I would call such a seat as Likely D, but probably closer to Leans than Safe.

(Also, broadly post-2012 there has been a trend of African-American turnout falling as a percentage of white turnout, especially in rural areas, basically regardless of the national environment. This is a generational thing and I doubt it'll change in 2024, although a presidential environment means higher turnout broadly.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

Letlow is a generic Trumpy, pro-insurrection Republican backbencher with no crossover appeal.  The race would be Safe D even with a meh Democratic nominee.  Even if black turnout collapsed, she’d have no path to victory absent the Democrat having a bonafide Roy Moore-tier scandal.  No offense, but any suggestion otherwise is simply Republican wishcasting.  

There is no reason to think she’d have anything resembling crossover appeal, especially not with African-American voters.  If LA gets a second AA seat (and it likely will), then she’s gone and it won’t be very close either.  Probably not even a mildly competitive race tbh.

[Spectator]

There’s a lot of unwarranted assumptions in kwabbit’s response to mine. No, you cannot assume the crossover support she received against a nobody would hold up against a well-funded challenger in a high profile race. Second, there’s no precedence on the federal level of a Republican holding a seat that blue in the House. We’ve had Senate incumbents do welll in blue territory in the south, like Jonny Isakson. But it’s all against no names.

The only current-day equivalents are NY-04 Republican-held seats in California, which are both really an extremely different dynamic. Historically the only remotely close parallel would be Ann Northrup, who iirc did well in the Black community in Louisville, but that was almost 20 years ago, in a mostly white and much closer seat, and she lost.

I meant to say there’s no precedent of a Republican holding a seat that blue in the south.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

You're assuming that the dynamics of an uncompetitive safe-seat race would obtain in a scenario where LA-05 is top Democratic target -- that seems like an unlikely assumption to make!

I'm not deeply familiar with Letlow, so I suppose it's possible that she overperforms, maybe even by a lot, but the political context of a safe seat mid term election against noname opposition is radically different than what the new seat is likely to be, which is one of the most Biden-voting seats held by a Republican in the country.

Dynamics would be a lot different, but the Dems will have to completely clear the field or it will be hard to get above 50%. The jungle primary is a hindrance, as is Letlow's strength. I think the median scenario would probably be Biden winning the district 54-45, The D-R vote in the primary being 52-48 but where enough Dems run where it's really like 44 top D, 45 Letlow, etc. Then it goes to the runoff where Black turnout may drop further.

Also, Letlow did a lot better than Kennedy did in the Senate race against a different set of no-name candidates. I guess Gary Chambers is fine, but no one paid any attention to this race. I think she is genuinely strong; a telegenic single mother might be better suited to win over Black voters than a crotchety old racist White guy.

My point is that it's wildly speculative to assume that a Republican would win a highly Democratic, majority Black district in the most polarized region of the country, especially one which is likely to attract a high quality group of candidates.

I'm not counting Letlow out -- she can win if things go her way -- but the priors of anyone in analyzing this sort of district should rate her as an extreme underdog and the fact that people are saying otherwise kind of smells like cope to me.

This is especially true given that we don't even know what this district will look like. Redistricters, especially in Southern states, have a tendency to respond to court ordered VRA districts with higher than needed amount of packing, designed to make sure they comply with the ruling. They could decide to sabotage Graves instead, or draw a Shreveport-Baton Rouge district like Oryxslayer made before, which I believe would double-bunk Letlow and Johnson. All of these are possibilities, and we should wait before we assume that Julia Letlow is the next David Valadao or something.

I don’t think Letlow would win every configuration of such a district, in fact in the Biden +10 one we’re talking about she’d probably lose too. A Biden +10 district implies that it is not maximally Black and also doesn’t take in any EBR liberal Whites. This makes the district one with R favorable trends, one that is more racially polarized, and one that is more similar to Letlow’s current district. If the district is Biden +14 or more EBR centered then she’d lose.

The drawer of the map could definitely assume that the district must be drawn in a way that Letlow is guaranteed to lose. I’ve seen plenty of people argue that Valadao’s district is not Hispanic enough/not a functioning VRA district since he’s still winning. Or the district could be more compact and barely a majority, something like Biden +8. It’d be hard to argue that’s not VRA compliant even if Letlow squeaks it out.

Again, the jungle primary makes it nearly certain to go to a December runoff. The Democrats would have to clear the field completely to avoid that. Plenty of EBR legislators are lining up for this. I would be very surprised if there weren’t a few serious Dem candidates. Runoffs can vary a lot obviously. Black turnout could fall sharply in which case Letlow would be in a stronger position, or it could be strong a la GA 2021 and guarantee a loss for Letlow.


 

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

Letlow is a generic Trumpy, pro-insurrection Republican backbencher with no crossover appeal.  The race would be Safe D even with a meh Democratic nominee.  Even if black turnout collapsed, she’d have no path to victory absent the Democrat having a bonafide Roy Moore-tier scandal.  No offense, but any suggestion otherwise is simply Republican wishcasting.  

There is no reason to think she’d have anything resembling crossover appeal, especially not with African-American voters.  If LA gets a second AA seat (and it likely will), then she’s gone and it won’t be very close either.  Probably not even a mildly competitive race tbh.

The runoff is more of a factor than Letlow’s strength. Differential turnout is enough to impact the result in that if it’s a more conservative drawing of the district. There’s a lot of room between Biden +7 and Biden +15 and both could be realistically be drawn. My argument is moot if it’s close to the top end.

The district is racially polarized, but that doesn’t make it allergic to swings. Biden’s margin is ten points lower than Obamas in some of these districts. The area has a longer term R trend and it swung strongly in 2022. It is possible for runoff differential turnout to make it competitive if it’s Biden +10 in a high turnout environment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

Letlow is a generic Trumpy, pro-insurrection Republican backbencher with no crossover appeal.  The race would be Safe D even with a meh Democratic nominee.  Even if black turnout collapsed, she’d have no path to victory absent the Democrat having a bonafide Roy Moore-tier scandal.  No offense, but any suggestion otherwise is simply Republican wishcasting.  

There is no reason to think she’d have anything resembling crossover appeal, especially not with African-American voters.  If LA gets a second AA seat (and it likely will), then she’s gone and it won’t be very close either.  Probably not even a mildly competitive race tbh.

The runoff is more of a factor than Letlow’s strength. Differential turnout is enough to impact the result in that if it’s a more conservative drawing of the district. There’s a lot of room between Biden +7 and Biden +15 and both could be realistically be drawn. My argument is moot if it’s close to the top end.

The district is racially polarized, but that doesn’t make it allergic to swings. Biden’s margin is ten points lower than Obamas in some of these districts. The area has a longer term R trend and it swung strongly in 2022. It is possible for runoff differential turnout to make it competitive if it’s Biden +10 in a high turnout environment.

Even in a runoff, it’d take a Roy Moore-tier scandal for her to win.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

Letlow is a generic Trumpy, pro-insurrection Republican backbencher with no crossover appeal.  The race would be Safe D even with a meh Democratic nominee.  Even if black turnout collapsed, she’d have no path to victory absent the Democrat having a bonafide Roy Moore-tier scandal.  No offense, but any suggestion otherwise is simply Republican wishcasting.  

There is no reason to think she’d have anything resembling crossover appeal, especially not with African-American voters.  If LA gets a second AA seat (and it likely will), then she’s gone and it won’t be very close either.  Probably not even a mildly competitive race tbh.

The runoff is more of a factor than Letlow’s strength. Differential turnout is enough to impact the result in that if it’s a more conservative drawing of the district. There’s a lot of room between Biden +7 and Biden +15 and both could be realistically be drawn. My argument is moot if it’s close to the top end.

The district is racially polarized, but that doesn’t make it allergic to swings. Biden’s margin is ten points lower than Obamas in some of these districts. The area has a longer term R trend and it swung strongly in 2022. It is possible for runoff differential turnout to make it competitive if it’s Biden +10 in a high turnout environment.

Even in a runoff, it’d take a Roy Moore-tier scandal for her to win.

Fair enough, what do you think the median outcome is in a Biden +10, 51% BVAP district for Biden vs. Trump 2024, the cumulative D vs. R in the jungle primary, and in the subsequent runoff if it’s necessary?

[Del Tachi]

I mean, the biggest indication of whether the new LA-05 is winnable for Letlow will be what she decides to do once the map is handed down.  If she runs, then it'd mean she figures she has a pretty good chance - and I'd trust her intuition over the armchair pundits of Atlas! 

As other posters have pointed out, Letlow does have a record of appealing to Black voters.  She's run >10% ahead of Trump/other Republicans across her current district, which includes multiple majority-Black counties. 

Most posters ITT are assuming the existance of a "well-funded" Democrat challenger who will instantly consolidate Black support across the new district.  But there's also the possibility that multiple Baton Rouge Democrats get in and all cannibalize each other in the jungle primary, while Letlow easily advances to the runoff with her reputation intact. 

[Skill and Chance]

A Biden +10 majority-black VAP district in the Deep South would be incredibly inelastic.  I'm not buying the argument that Letlow could win that.  This is not at all equivalent to Youngkin winning Virginia.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Based on 2022 results and the recent bipartisan efforts in the state to legislate on moral issues(porn verification, social media parental consent etc), I honestly expect Biden's margin in Louisiana to completely collapse. It won't likely be enough to save Letlow but I'd be wary of assuming Biden will hold up in this state(and the south in general)

[GALeftist]

Based on 2022 results and the recent bipartisan efforts in the state to legislate on moral issues(porn verification, social media parental consent etc), I honestly expect Biden's margin in Louisiana to completely collapse. It won't likely be enough to save Letlow but I'd be wary of assuming Biden will hold up in this state(and the south in general)

It's Louisiana. If the district is over 50% black (or includes New Orleans), the Democrat will win, simple as that. For the same reasons that Democrats from the Deep South can be idiosyncratic on some of these issues, it is unlikely that Democrats will collapse, particularly on the congressional level.

I do think my left-of-center friends should prepare for the possibility that a conservadem wins the new seat, but all the takes about a surprise R victory in the event of a second VRA district are doom/cope.

[Death of a Salesman]

Based on 2022 results and the recent bipartisan efforts in the state to legislate on moral issues(porn verification, social media parental consent etc), I honestly expect Biden's margin in Louisiana to completely collapse. It won't likely be enough to save Letlow but I'd be wary of assuming Biden will hold up in this state(and the south in general)

It's Louisiana. If the district is over 50% black (or includes New Orleans), the Democrat will win, simple as that. For the same reasons that Democrats from the Deep South can be idiosyncratic on some of these issues, it is unlikely that Democrats will collapse, particularly on the congressional level.

I do think my left-of-center friends should prepare for the possibility that a conservadem wins the new seat, but all the takes about a surprise R victory in the event of a second VRA district are doom/cope.

There are large parts of this district where whites are more Republican than blacks are Democratic.

[Spectator]

Based on 2022 results and the recent bipartisan efforts in the state to legislate on moral issues(porn verification, social media parental consent etc), I honestly expect Biden's margin in Louisiana to completely collapse. It won't likely be enough to save Letlow but I'd be wary of assuming Biden will hold up in this state(and the south in general)

It's Louisiana. If the district is over 50% black (or includes New Orleans), the Democrat will win, simple as that. For the same reasons that Democrats from the Deep South can be idiosyncratic on some of these issues, it is unlikely that Democrats will collapse, particularly on the congressional level.

I do think my left-of-center friends should prepare for the possibility that a conservadem wins the new seat, but all the takes about a surprise R victory in the event of a second VRA district are doom/cope.

There are large parts of this district where whites are more Republican than blacks are Democratic.

Then it wouldn’t exactly function as a VRA seat, would it?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1694004357312765987?t=GILquR3Z8Xzs2FbFgOosXA&am...

Reminder that technically because the equivalent of Louisianas primaries are the same day as the general election,  stretching the case until Purcell isn't really a real option.

This as of yet does not involve a stay of the lower court. If the situation holds, the lower court will put in place a map, and the state would need a 5th ruling in their favor to overturn its actions. 

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1681027606362177536?t=5uOZ0TGvEj1rIksq73D3qQ&am...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1696662841200107857?t=1H8ajEhGg-fGc73Lcmhb3Q&am...

The previously described October situation remains in place,  for now. The trail court would put in place a new normal,  and the state would require the 5th circuit to overturn it,  not just rule against the plaintiffs. The emergency stay appeal is heard by a different 3, but these three expect to have it transferred.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1706293050949902419?t=JhNBXl2XX6XWcnbV_8MltQ&am...


Louisiana is having several different court hearings next week: this one potentially on the merits,  one in the lower court to implement a new map, one to potentially stay said lower court action.

[politicallefty]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

[Oryxslayer]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Wouldn't it be easier to draw out Garret Graves than Julia Letlow? Is seniority a factor in why Republicans don't seem willing to do that?

Re: the earlier discourse on Letlow's crossover appeal - keep in mind that she won big in 2021 on a low-turnout special election with a lot of sympathy vote (young widow with two young kids running for the seat her husband got elected to but died before he could take office from Covid). Not sure if that sympathy vote still could play a role in any future crossover support, but that and her public pro-vaccine stance likely helps with some Democrats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wouldn't it be easier to draw out Garret Graves than Julia Letlow? Is seniority a factor in why Republicans don't seem willing to do that?

Re: the earlier discourse on Letlow's crossover appeal - keep in mind that she won big in 2021 on a low-turnout special election with a lot of sympathy vote (young widow with two young kids running for the seat her husband got elected to but died before he could take office from Covid). Not sure if that sympathy vote still could play a role in any future crossover support, but that and her public pro-vaccine stance likely helps with some Democrats.

She has no crossover appeal

[politicallefty]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

[Aurelius2]

A Biden +10 majority-black VAP district in the Deep South would be incredibly inelastic.  I'm not buying the argument that Letlow could win that.  This is not at all equivalent to Youngkin winning Virginia.

Additionally, the sort of black candidates who get elected in these D+10-ish VRA districts tend to overperform with rural whites in their districts. Sanford Bishop is the most well-known example of this; I've also heard that this is true of Bennie Thompson, and was true of G. K. Butterfield when he was in office.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think it’s more likely Letlow runs against Mike Johnson in LA-04, assuming a lot of the northwestern parts of her current district are there. I think she has a solid chance at beating him, and Shreveport blacks could break for her over Johnson.

[Sol]

There are a lot of different ways to draw a second VRA district in Louisiana, so if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Johnson or Letlow instead. Do GOPers have a sense of who they'd want to keep?

[Atlas Force]

There are a lot of different ways to draw a second VRA district in Louisiana, so if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Johnson or Letlow instead. Do GOPers have a sense of who they'd want to keep?

"if LA Republicans want to keep Letlow they can sacrifice Letlow instead"

Did you mean to name somebody else?