2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[jimrtex]

My DRA transcription of the map. The Master explicitly went out of the way in his report to not cut VTDs, which is why the map is not zero'ed out like usual with congressional stuff. That said, it is a advisory plaintiff plan and not meant to be final. To this end there are some improvements to be made, like removing the Vernon cut and improving the EBR and Tangipahoa cuts. 

If you turn on the racial display, the splits of Ouachita, Rapides, and Lafayette parishes look like race sorting, with some rural territory included in Rapides and Lafayette to give the appearance of greater compactness. The split of Tangipahoa also appears to be a racial split.

Use of solid colors also hides what is happening around Lake Ponchartrain, including the split of Mandeville so as to provide the bridge connection back to Metairie, but there doesn't appear any way to drive from Slidell to Morgan City while staying in the district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know when we’ll have a final map. This might be one final small W for Dems this cycle but we’ll see if the map survives the decade

[Torie]

Anyone know when we’ll have a final map. This might be one final small W for Dems this cycle but we’ll see if the map survives the decade

https://lailluminator.com/2022/06/22/its-basically-a-race-3-courts-consider-future-of-louisianas-congressional-districts/

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know when we’ll have a final map. This might be one final small W for Dems this cycle but we’ll see if the map survives the decade

https://lailluminator.com/2022/06/22/its-basically-a-race-3-courts-consider-future-of-louisianas-congressional-districts/

Thanks.

Tomorrow will be a big day because it's the last day to stay the ruling by the SCOTUS (the stay has already failed the conservative 5th circuit court). Given how last minute they stayed the Alabama case, there's def a good chance we see a repeat here.

Really hoping they draw the and enact a better map ASAP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone know when we’ll have a final map. This might be one final small W for Dems this cycle but we’ll see if the map survives the decade

https://lailluminator.com/2022/06/22/its-basically-a-race-3-courts-consider-future-of-louisianas-congressional-districts/

Thanks.

Tomorrow will be a big day because it's the last day to stay the ruling by the SCOTUS (the stay has already failed the conservative 5th circuit court). Given how last minute they stayed the Alabama case, there's def a good chance we see a repeat here.

Really hoping they draw the and enact a better map ASAP.

So, no stay yet?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AmeetTheIndian/status/1541868057743728641

SCOTUS effectively wants to combine this with the Alabama case.

[I’m not Stu]

I was right about a 6-0 map being allowed.

[soundchaser]

Imagine holding out hope that the worst Supreme Court of the last century wouldn't issue a stay. Couldn't have been me.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[I’m not Stu]

Will it become legal to draw out Troy Carter?

[Torie]

This is no surprise, given the stay of the Alabama case, where I thought the case that the map passed violated section 2 of the VRA was much stronger. The conservative 5 or 6 clearly think a revision of the Gingles rule is in play.

[chalmetteowl]

Could there be an argument that any 50%+ BVAP LA-02 violates neutral redistricting principles given in a nonracially drawn compact and fair map, the New Orleans area would just get it's own dedicated seat rather than attaching black rurals to boost black population? Honestly for the GOP no matter what happens with VRA New Orleans is likely too hard to politically crack down the middle given balancing a bunch of Trump + 17 seats is bound to make someone upset.

That is another issue that is not entirely clear. Is a 50% BVAP CD but no more a safe harbor if sufficiently compact to trigger Gingles, or is one obligated to follow neutral redistricting principles that have a lower BVAP percentage, so long as it is black performing? The legal answer is probably the former safe harbor one, but I think there is some doubt. As a matter of policy, one should of course try to hew to neutral redistricting  as much as one can while preserving a minority performing CD that is Gingles protected. I think it is pretty clear at the moment that the compact standard for Gingles is looser than the one used for purposes of neutral redistricting principles. The issue is how much looser. One hopes SCOTUS will elaborate.

Exactly. I feel like there's ways to go about it that are better than others, and as tricky as it may be, I'd really be happy with the SCOTUS if they come up with some sort of purely mathematical benchmark even if it otherwise loosens things up a bit.

Also I'd argue the arbitrary strandard for 50% black districts by default violates fair redistricting principles cause ina truly natural map, you should have some 40% black seats and some 60% black seats; not just a bunch of 50% black seats and then a bunch of whiter seats.

Like I kinda feel like black communities should as much as possible be left whole, but aiming for a specific 50% standard doesn't make sense when some of those seats would've already been perfoming at 30% black and others would still be iffy at 50%.

Inherently too, just aiming for black functioning districts eliminates political competition in primaries as well. In fair maps, shouldn't all races ahve opportunities to expand or shrink their coalition if that makes sense rather then deadlock 2 black reps and 4 white representatives for example

As an intellectual [a masturbatory] exercise, I pretended as to dividing the real estate between LA-01 and LA-02, I would forget about everything except compactness, chops (parish and municipal), and beauty.

I came up with the below. Is LA-02 black performing? Yes, I think so to at least close to a reasonable doubt. Is LA-01 still rock solid Pub? Yes? Will it ever be drawn? No. Part of the reason is that some of the whites placed in LA-02 in this iteration are some of the most virulent racists in the US. It has issues as to soft COI issues as I refer to them, and I am a pretty hard liner when it comes to blowing off soft COI claims.  

Btw, LA has no land contiguity requirement for darn good reasons!  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bc9408f5-7d21-4cd6-bbe9-f4425e68ec06

That's also part of the problem too. There really can't be any rule between "racist" and "nonracist" whites for obvious reasons, though one can argue "racist" whites help make LA-02  amore reliable black functioning seat cause they most likely vote in the R primary.

Also just in general in the South, most "whites" are racist in the sense they don't share the same political interests as black folks. There are very few liberal whites in the South generally so no matter what a district will either be a black pack or include whites who vote opposite to how blacks vote.

there is no such thing as an R or D primary in LA. All candidates run in the open primary and if the winner gets 50% +1, they're elected. if no candidate does, there's a runoff between the top 2.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will it become legal to draw out Troy Carter?

Very unlikely in the sense there can be 0 functioning black districts in the state, however, LA-02 could be an illegal racial pack/sort. At the very least it’d likely be illegal to crack New Orleans black community which is enough to make any district lean D

Any even if VRA is completely gutted I doubt LA Rs would draw a 6-0 map as it’s not easy to balance partisanship of all 6 seats in a way that satisfies incumbents (which they had focused on in drawing their initial map)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Imagine holding out hope that the worst Supreme Court of the last century wouldn't issue a stay. Couldn't have been me.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I had no hope for this either.

The Supreme Court's motto might as well be:

"A gun in every holster! A child in every orphanage! A white person in every district!"

[I’m not Stu]

Imagine holding out hope that the worst Supreme Court of the last century wouldn't issue a stay. Couldn't have been me.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I had no hope for this either.

The Supreme Court's motto might as well be:

"A gun in every holster! A child in every orphanage! A white person Republican in every district!"

[jimrtex]

This is no surprise, given the stay of the Alabama case, where I thought the case that the map passed violated section 2 of the VRA was much stronger. The conservative 5 or 6 clearly think a revision of the Gingles rule is in play.

The Gingles condition is a compact minority, not a compact district encompassing dispersed minorities.

The plaintiffs were clearly race sorting in how they divided Ouachita, Rapides, East Baton Rouge, Tangipahoa, and Orleans parishes. They were also aiming for a specific target percentage.

Section 2 doesn't say anything about districts. It is about practices that have a discriminatory effect. Imagine that there was a law that voters had to be at least 5'8. That would have a discriminatory effect against women, Asian, and Hispanic voters.

The Gingles test came from conditions where there was a compact minority community and  at-large elections were used.

[Nyvin]

Does the Alabama case mean there will also be 2 black districts in LA?

[Oryxslayer]

The case here was successful for the plaintiffs, but was put on hold by the Supreme Court until they ruled on Milligan. That is over and the plaintiffs indirectly won.

This is map previously brought up in court:



However, the legislature may now move to get a map more favorable to their incumbents in place while comping with orders. Here are a few previously:

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/LouisianaGov/status/1666844330168930304?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

A lot of potential Section 2 remedial maps have the L-shaped LA-05 lock in LA-06 east of BR, which pushes Scalise out of St. Tammany. However, given the tenure of incumbents, especially Scalise, don't be surprised if the legislature preempts the court and goes for incumbent protection while making LA-05 safe Dem and majority Black.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do you compactly get two black seats in Louisiana?  When I try, I get a 44% black (but 60% minority) Biden +35 seat in New Orleans and a 42% black Biden +3 seat based in Baton Rouge (and taking in the black precincts of Lafayette).  I guess you need to snake it through my 37% black, Trump +18 Northeast Louisiana district, but would SCOTUS rule differently on that case if it's more of a snake than the Alabama one?

EDIT: Actually, my 37% black district was my Northwestern one.  I can get the BR seat up to 45% black and Biden +5 by going up the river and removing some white Republican parts of East Baton Rouge, but that's still not a safe seat.  And, I don't see SCOTUS going for a snake to Shreveport.

[Oryxslayer]

How do you compactly get two black seats in Louisiana?  When I try, I get a 44% black (but 60% minority) Biden +35 seat in New Orleans and a 42% black Biden +3 seat based in Baton Rouge (and taking in the black precincts of Lafayette).  I guess you need to snake it through my 37% black, Trump +18 Northeast Louisiana district, but would SCOTUS rule differently on that case if it's more of a snake than the Alabama one?

Literally every single map I have posted in my two posts is over 50% BVAP, including the one labeled Fairfax which was ordered by the lower federal court before the stay. And there are other options that are less favorable to incumbent: the Diagonal from BR to Shreveport, and supposedly the BR centered seat with arms to Lafayette and other smaller settlements also works but I havn't tested it cause of what it forces on LA-01.

[Stuart98]

There's no compact way to get the New Orleans seat to 50%, but you don't need to; even if it were down to 35% black it'd probably still reliably elect the black candidate of choice.

For the Baton Rouge, as long as it has most of BR plus the black parts of Alexandria, Lafayette, and Monroe, it should easily be majority black; you don't need to make it less compact by sending it into St. Helena or Tangipahoa, that just pushes it up to 55% black.

[soundchaser]

It'll be interesting to see how Republicans try to shore up Scalise if they have to shift District 2 as well. It seems somewhat counterintuitive to get him out of Jefferson entirely, but if that's the only way to keep him in St. Tammany it might be the wiser move on their part.

[Nyvin]

It's possible to draw the Baton Rouge district as 50% black without going up into northern Louisiana.  It just requires lots of little arms into counties to grab the black majority towns and cities.

Both the Baton Rouge and New Orleans districts are black majority in this -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8b6e650-2869-4e66-9380-bfdad37436b6

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[Oryxslayer]

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Yep, this is the central BR option I mentioned in my post above this one. There are fundamentally 3 ways to draw a second >50% BVAP seat: the Monroe-BR "L," the BR Blob as shown here, and the Diagonal from Shreveport to BR. You also can do the border snake that goes from BR to Monroe to Shreveport, but the plaintiffs and judge wouldn't accept that on neatness.

All are possible, but the "L" disrupts those with congressional tenure the least, so its the one I expect the GOP would prefer in potential settlement talks.