2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana  (Read 37065 times)
Sol
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« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2020, 11:07:26 PM »

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA
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GALeftist
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« Reply #51 on: December 18, 2020, 01:11:24 AM »

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA


Well here's the reason I ask:



It's ugly as sin but it sort of has to be if you want a 4-2 map. Blue is about 53% black 40% white by CVAP, Green is about 56% black 40% white. I wish I could have made the New Orleans seat from only Orleans and Jefferson parishes, but unfortunately I don't think the math works out for it to be black enough. Anyways obviously none of these districts are competitive, blue went for Clinton like 70-30, green like 65-30, and Trump clears 70 in all the other districts (excepts Higgins's, and then only barely). However, as you can see, Scalise and Higgins keep their districts pretty much intact, and Johnson and Abraham's districts are sorta similar, but Graves gets hacked apart, which is unfortunate when Abraham is retiring anyway.

(those faint lines are the current districts)

Here's the link (I think): https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae60bd2f-d8e3-4e5f-af55-64d8fcf31748
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #52 on: December 18, 2020, 07:47:00 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #53 on: December 18, 2020, 10:38:29 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #54 on: December 18, 2020, 10:45:00 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #55 on: December 18, 2020, 11:03:17 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff
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GALeftist
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« Reply #56 on: December 18, 2020, 02:31:26 PM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #57 on: January 14, 2021, 11:07:56 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats. 

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps. 

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #58 on: January 14, 2021, 11:09:21 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #59 on: January 14, 2021, 11:40:42 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.

Are you saying this AR-02-esque seat will be centred around Baton Rouge?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #60 on: January 14, 2021, 11:43:26 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.

Are you saying this AR-02-esque seat will be centred around Baton Rouge?

Yes if it goes to the courts.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #61 on: January 16, 2021, 01:16:20 PM »

My take on a "bipartisan" map, where Rs cave to the Dem governor and give up a Safe R seat for a tossup; in exchange for some state legislature stuff (I imagine the more likely scenario is the opposite though?)



Seats 1, 3, 4 and 5 are all Safe R; and all incumbents have their home inside their district. District 2 is Safe D and 49.1% black by CVAP. It is not quite 50%; but it is more than enough to elect a black Democrat I imagine

Seat 6 is the interesting one; being Trump+1 and R+2 it is a pure tossup, though I imagine it is also very likely to be super polarized. It is 43% black and 51% white.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #62 on: March 21, 2021, 05:15:00 PM »

Do VRA seats need to be >50% CVAP or do they just need to be pretty sure that it will almost always elect a minority representative? I'm trying to see how compact you can get a 4-2 map but it's surprisingly hard to get them over the hump with CVAP, they always seem to be just shy of 50%
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Sol
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« Reply #63 on: March 21, 2021, 05:38:10 PM »

Do VRA seats need to be >50% CVAP or do they just need to be pretty sure that it will almost always elect a minority representative? I'm trying to see how compact you can get a 4-2 map but it's surprisingly hard to get them over the hump with CVAP, they always seem to be just shy of 50%

It's pretty variable--the most important thing is that the minority community can elect their candidate of choice. This is why NC-01 and the two Virginia VRA districts are not that Black, while Latino districts are usually significantly higher in percentage (as Latinos have lower turnout most of the time and are also less politically homogeneous). As for Louisiana and other deep south states, it somewhat depends on how Democratic the White vote is--New Orleans whites are pretty Democratic these days, so there's a little more flexibility in Black %, but outside of the city votes are very racially polarized, so you probably do need an outright BCVAP majority.

Of course I could be getting something wrong as VRA interpretation is very confusing.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #64 on: March 21, 2021, 07:37:00 PM »

It's generally better to have a BVAP majority than a BVAP plurality, and generally better to have a BVAP plurality than a white plurality, and generally better to have a white plurality than a white majority.
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Sol
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« Reply #65 on: March 22, 2021, 08:01:34 AM »

It's generally better to have a BVAP majority than a BVAP plurality, and generally better to have a BVAP plurality than a white plurality, and generally better to have a white plurality than a white majority.

I don't think that's necessarily correct--the former iteration of VA-03 was struck down because it packed Black voters.
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Torie
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« Reply #66 on: March 22, 2021, 12:33:13 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2021, 01:56:13 PM by Torie »

I don't see a court drawing a second Dem CD myself. Other than doing away with the black seat gerrymander, this is designed within reason to be a least change map.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #67 on: March 22, 2021, 12:57:11 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2021, 01:02:45 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

It's generally better to have a BVAP majority than a BVAP plurality, and generally better to have a BVAP plurality than a white plurality, and generally better to have a white plurality than a white majority.

I don't think that's necessarily correct--the former iteration of VA-03 was struck down because it packed Black voters.
I said "generally". There are exceptions, many of them, but there is a trendline of desirability that exists. And of course overall minority influence is highly important.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #68 on: March 23, 2021, 12:20:09 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 12:45:40 PM by ERM64man »

My map has a high minority rights rating and proportionality rating. My VRA district is the most compact I was able to get with majority BCVAP.



Partisan composition.

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Torie
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« Reply #69 on: March 23, 2021, 12:25:58 PM »

My map has a high minority rights rating and proportionality rating. My VRA district is the most compact I was able to get with majority BCVAP.



Partisan composition.



Majority BVAP is not a legal requirement if a district is otherwise minority performing, and indeed could itself be illegal if deemed a gerrymandered CD which "minority packs," diluting minority influence in other districts to their detriment.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #70 on: March 23, 2021, 12:37:58 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 12:47:20 PM by ERM64man »

My map has a high minority rights rating and proportionality rating. My VRA district is the most compact I was able to get with majority BCVAP.
Partisan composition.

Majority BVAP is not a legal requirement if a district is otherwise minority performing, and indeed could itself be illegal if deemed a gerrymandered CD which "minority packs," diluting minority influence in other districts to their detriment.

No. I got a high minority rights rating on DRA. That should be good. I made sure to do so. My VRA district is 51.1% BCVAP. My Baton Rouge district is more Democratic than any of the GOP districts on the current real map. I made Garret Graves' district significantly more Democratic. I wasn't able to draw two vaguely compact performing districts.

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Torie
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« Reply #71 on: March 23, 2021, 01:19:03 PM »

My map has a high minority rights rating and proportionality rating. My VRA district is the most compact I was able to get with majority BCVAP.
Partisan composition.

Majority BVAP is not a legal requirement if a district is otherwise minority performing, and indeed could itself be illegal if deemed a gerrymandered CD which "minority packs," diluting minority influence in other districts to their detriment.

No. I got a high minority rights rating on DRA. That should be good. I made sure to do so. My VRA district is 51.1% BCVAP. My Baton Rouge district is more Democratic than any of the GOP districts on the current real map. I made Garret Graves' district significantly more Democratic. I wasn't able to draw two vaguely compact performing districts.




Just to be clear, as I am sure that your appreciate, what the DRA "likes," and what the VRA law prescribes, are not co-extensive, and some things the DRA might like, may in fact cause one to run afoul of the VRA. In that regard, I question the legality if it were more or less replicated, of the current lines of the black performing CD in Louisiana. Combining two minority nodes in two different metro areas where not needed to create a minority performing CD, is quite problematical under the VRA law.
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #72 on: March 23, 2021, 06:43:26 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 07:52:39 PM by ERM64man »

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA


Well here's the reason I ask:

It's ugly as sin but it sort of has to be if you want a 4-2 map. Blue is about 53% black 40% white by CVAP, Green is about 56% black 40% white. I wish I could have made the New Orleans seat from only Orleans and Jefferson parishes, but unfortunately I don't think the math works out for it to be black enough. Anyways obviously none of these districts are competitive, blue went for Clinton like 70-30, green like 65-30, and Trump clears 70 in all the other districts (excepts Higgins's, and then only barely). However, as you can see, Scalise and Higgins keep their districts pretty much intact, and Johnson and Abraham's districts are sorta similar, but Graves gets hacked apart, which is unfortunate when Abraham is retiring anyway.

(those faint lines are the current districts)

Here's the link (I think): https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae60bd2f-d8e3-4e5f-af55-64d8fcf31748
That isn't legal. The green district isn't compact enough. Louisiana had two majority-minority districts in the early 1990s, which were struck down in court for not being compact enough. I drew a 4-1-1 map with a swing district that narrowly voted for Clinton in 2016.

Updated map.



Partisan composition.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #73 on: March 23, 2021, 10:53:13 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature
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I知 not Stu
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« Reply #74 on: March 24, 2021, 09:13:37 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2021, 10:40:46 AM by ERM64man »

I updated my map. There two majority BCVAP districts. Unlike the early 1990s districts that were struck down my second majority-minority district is compact enough to be legal.

With parishes.



With numbers.



Partisan composition.

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