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January 16, 2021, 07:25:43 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

  Talk Elections
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana  (Read 3154 times)
Sol
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« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2020, 11:07:26 PM »

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA
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SENATOR Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock
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« Reply #51 on: December 18, 2020, 01:11:24 AM »

Is there a way to draw a 4-2 map that gets rid of Abraham's district and not Graves's? It just seems like Graves's district is the natural one to get nuked but obviously that's suboptimal.

I mean a 4-2 map is pretty hard tbh without violating the VRA


Well here's the reason I ask:



It's ugly as sin but it sort of has to be if you want a 4-2 map. Blue is about 53% black 40% white by CVAP, Green is about 56% black 40% white. I wish I could have made the New Orleans seat from only Orleans and Jefferson parishes, but unfortunately I don't think the math works out for it to be black enough. Anyways obviously none of these districts are competitive, blue went for Clinton like 70-30, green like 65-30, and Trump clears 70 in all the other districts (excepts Higgins's, and then only barely). However, as you can see, Scalise and Higgins keep their districts pretty much intact, and Johnson and Abraham's districts are sorta similar, but Graves gets hacked apart, which is unfortunate when Abraham is retiring anyway.

(those faint lines are the current districts)

Here's the link (I think): https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae60bd2f-d8e3-4e5f-af55-64d8fcf31748
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #52 on: December 18, 2020, 07:47:00 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #53 on: December 18, 2020, 10:38:29 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #54 on: December 18, 2020, 10:45:00 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #55 on: December 18, 2020, 11:03:17 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff
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SENATOR Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock
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« Reply #56 on: December 18, 2020, 02:31:26 PM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy
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Thunder98
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« Reply #57 on: January 13, 2021, 08:15:04 PM »

A 4R-2D map with 2 black majority districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aed68be9-d096-43c6-879d-a0d4d79e5bbc

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #58 on: January 14, 2021, 11:07:56 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats. 

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps. 

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #59 on: January 14, 2021, 11:09:21 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #60 on: January 14, 2021, 11:40:42 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.

Are you saying this AR-02-esque seat will be centred around Baton Rouge?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #61 on: January 14, 2021, 11:43:26 AM »

How likely is it that a 4-2 map is actually drawn? How much leverage does JBE have in the redistricting process?

So the GOP just sends it to the courts. Most likely we get a district resembling something like Arkansas 2nd.

So most likely JBE vetoes a 5 Safe R-1 Safe D maps, which throws it to the courts, who draw 4 Safe R-1 Lean/Likely R-1 Safe D?

Thats if the GOP doesn't overrides in exchange for legislative or other stuff

Does the GOP have the votes to override? I thought they were a couple seats shy

They don't because of 2 independents, one of whom is a rural socon/fisclib and potentially flippable.  However, the other one is from New Orleans and votes left of JBE himself and they need both to override a veto.  So it's basically a sure thing that the redistricting veto will be sustained unless there is a deal with some of the Democrats.  

It's theoretically possible that Republicans make a deal for a second Dem congressional seat in order to draw the state legislative districts as they see fit, but under the state constitution, the legislative maps go directly to the 5R/2D partisan elected state supreme court to break the deadlock after JBE vetoes.  So it's overwhelmingly likely the state supreme court just adopts the GOP legislative maps.  

If they can get the congressional map into federal court, it gets more interesting, as Roberts and Thomas are both plausible votes against a NOLA to BR LA-02, and Kavanaugh and Barrett haven't decided a racial gerrymandering case yet.  

Its pretty likely New Orleans to BR will be cancelled but they won't draw anything crazy either in favor of Dems, just expect a seat similar to AR 2nd without a VRA rework.

Are you saying this AR-02-esque seat will be centred around Baton Rouge?

Yes if it goes to the courts.
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