2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana  (Read 37083 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: November 17, 2019, 03:28:42 PM »
« edited: November 17, 2019, 03:47:12 PM by Oryxslayer »

Louisiana

JBE has won reelection. Louisiana’s government is now close enough to locked in for 2021 as it is going to get. Pending any retirements legislatively, the GOP will not have a supermajority in the Louisiana state house. If the Republicans wish to override JBE’s democratic vetoes they need to go to work and convince democrats or independents to vote with them. Louisiana is therefore poised to be a major 2021 redistricting battleground thanks to divided government. There is no easily to predict conclusion in a true battleground, only a long list of potential actions that could be pursued if the players wish to act upon their desires.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History


Louisiana's Districts from mid-90s to 2000, Wikipedia


Louisiana's Districts from 2000 to 2010, Wikipedia

2010 redistricting in Louisiana was an unusually messy affair. For the first time Louisiana was controlled by a GOP trifecta and they now had unilateral control over the lines. In the past it had always been the Dixiecratic democrats with the superior position when it came to mapmaking. The last time Louisiana had a serious redistricting fight was back in the 90s, and back then the Faultline was between Black and Dixiecratic democrats. The obscene nature of 90s VRA districts resulted in two maps of Northern Louisiana that drew up districts that were more squiggles than actual seats. Counties were rarely kept whole and blacks were separated from whites in the most cherry-picked fashion. After several court cases the dixiecrats won and Louisiana had seven compact districts, with only one in NOLA being for AAs. Those districts drawn in the mid-90s were preserved all the way to 2010 with ‘least-change’ style maps that preserved seat bases. This least change map produced a surprisingly high number of competitive elections and seat flips – even in the VRA seat when William Jefferson got tried for corruption changes. The map required the 2010 election for national partisan trends to finally assert themselves in the Bayou.

Going into 2010 then the Republicans were ambitiously optimistic about their opportunity with the lines. However, population loss from hurricane Katrina tempered these expectations. Louisiana had to drop one of her seats, and even though most of the population loss was in the NOLA region, the AA seat couldn’t be cut because of the VRA. The Republicans would need to draw straws and see who ended up with what.


Louisiana's Districts since 2010, Wikipedia

Republicans began to fight over whose community would be taking the hit and get carved up. There was never any debate about Richmond’s AA seat – that was going into BR. Stretching the 2nd out allowed the GOP to pack AA dems in the only part of the state they were numerous in, and it was even justifiable since Cao had gotten through with a lower AA%. The rest of the map was where the battles were being fought. Both chairs of the legislature’s redistricting committees were from the North and made their presence and opinions known regarding the region’s seats. The north should keep two seats, stretch north south, and those seats would be expanding southwards to fill up on the necessary population. Instead, the freshman Rep. Landry was to be pit against Boustany in a unified Acadiana seat. Landry meanwhile fought back using cultivating support from those not tied at the hip to the legislative leaders, proposing maps that left two southern seats, reshuffled the north, and carved up the Baton Rouge region. In the end Boustany won out as Acadiana got unified with his base in Lafayette but Landry’s base was left out and pushed into Scalise’s 1st.  The dual GOP northern districts were preserved, and everyone’s seat got Redder.

Since 2011

Landry as expected lost his primary with Boustany. Beyond that, the only notable change in Louisiana’s delegation has been the faces. The GOP has held all 5 of their seats incredibly safely, and Richmond has been safe in his squiggle from BR to NOLA. Every GOP rep from Louisiana has retired to run for something else or been replace, with the exception of Scalise who now sits with the House Republican Leadership. Change will only come with a new batch of lines.

2021

This is a battleground, and there are two clear camps with a variety of resolutions. JBE and the democratic legislature will clearly push for as much as they can get, with the ideal prize being a second African American District. For the Republicans, 5-1 is just the beginning. In their ideal world, the GOP pushes beyond 5-1 and draws themselves permanent supermajorities in both legislative chambers. While there is an established backdoor for resolving disagreements concerning legislative lines, handing power over to the state supreme court, there is no such backdoor for congressional lines. The traditional GOP tactic of playing African Americans against white democrats won’t really work here because…well…the African American caucus is the one attempting to gain power. There are only a few white Dems in white districts left in Louisiana, and like much of the deep south, the Democratic party is an African American party locally.

So, lets analyze each party’s proposal. The Democratic case rests on Louisiana’s high African American population statistics that didn’t really change from their 33%-ish in 2010. While the Black Belt has shrunk since 2010, the cities have grown, and kept the overall number stable. NOLA in particular rebounded hard after Katrina and once again has a respectable population living inside the city’s borders. Redistricting 2010 just happened to occur at a bad time for New Orleans demographically. New Orleans is also unique as far as southern cities go in that it has a significant liberal white community that will vote for African American democrats. This is similar to the tidewater in Virginia where a seat does not need to have 50% BVAP if there are enough non-AA democrats to make the seat 100% safe blue but not enough to challenge AA dominance of the primary.


90s proposals to create a second overwhelmingly AA seat, Wikipedia

Looking backwards there were three previous attempts to draw a Second African American seat in Louisiana. Two of these plans I alluded to earlier and they were drawn in the 90s as part of a pact between republicans and African American democrats. Both of these seats were squiggles that had almost no community of interest and were designed to pack in as many African Americans as possible – this was the 90s and that was how the VRA was interpreted. Both districts were thrown out, however similar districts may be pushed by the dems in 2020 that give more respect to communities, counties, and other groups. A third plan was drawn in 2010 by the AA caucus that did not go into Shreveport, however it was rather messy in the rest of the state. It threw too many GOP incumbents aside and never left committee. These three potential alignments are the easiest ways to get a second AA seat to work: BR to Shreveport diagonally, BR to Shreveport along the state borders, and BR+ Mississippi river counties with cuts into neighboring towns.


2010 failed Legislative plan for 2 AA seats, Louisiana SoS Site

If a second AA seat is to be drawn, one should carefully note the location of the GOP incumbents. If one is to be thrown aside, then the other 4 should be ecstatic about the rest of their lines. Scalise lives in Jefferson to the south of Metairie with a base in the suburbs, Higgins lives in Port Barre (St. Landry) and has a base in the Fayetteville region, Johnson lives in Benton (Bossier), Abraham in Mangham (Richland), and Garret in the republican southern neighborhoods of Baton Rouge. The easiest incumbent to throw aside may be Abraham or his successor – Abraham has expressed a desire to leave Washington which is why he ran for Gov.


A modern, less stringy, Border-straddling northern AA seat


A diagonal AA Seat, that maintains other communities of interest

The Republican proposal is ideally as least change of a map as possible. The 2010 map worked as far as they are concerned. Now, least change does not mean no change. If the suburban trends continue then the 2nd may need to take in select communities from the 6th and 1st. Clay Higgins presently lives right on the edge of his district and would prefer if his hometown of Port Barre is actually inside the 3rd. Scalise also is likely to demand personal lines for his seat in order to avoid primaries and further his advancement in congressional leadership. When concerning the Democrats arguments that a second African American seat should be drawn, the republican counter-argument is the disparate location of each major community. BR and Shreveport are separated by multiple counties and any district that connects them would be rather unseemly. It’s far better to keep more recognizable communities of interest unified rather than follow racial data and carve them up.

There are a few traditional ways to break a redistricting gridlock. The first way is compromise, with one side giving way on one issue and the others giving way on another issue. The classic example is when two chambers controlled by different parties draw their chambers legislative lines personally and agree to pass the others map. Compromise seems out of the picture though, since both sides are playing a zero-sum game when it comes to redistricting in southern states. The next option is abusing parochial concerns. Republicans can use democratic legislators desire for safe seats against the overall party’s interests and get them on board with a veto override. Democrats though could use republicans desire for personal congressional lines, most notably Scalise, to get them to support Bussing one of their own. Finally, there is the court option. The Louisiana Supreme court is controlled by conservatives which should benefit the GOP, except if these things go to court it is never that simple. Court maps are comparatively undesirable for incumbents when compared to personally decided district lines. Courts taking up maps on racial lines invites in groups like the NAACP, the ACLU, and other minority protection groups to get involved in a serious way. In Conclusion, anything is possible.

What’s left to decide

Nothing.
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Orser67
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2019, 04:08:08 PM »

I don't have anything insightful to add, I just want to say that this series is great, please keep 'em coming.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2019, 04:24:09 PM »

Hmmm... if this ends up in state court, the (partisan, elected, 5R/2D) Louisiana Supreme Court = Republicans win.  If it ends up in federal court, it gets appealed to the 5th Circuit, which also basically = Republicans win.  If it then gets appealed to SCOTUS, it's clear at this point that 3 SCOTUS Justices (Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch) are ready to strike down the requirement for VRA districts entirely.
 Roberts has clearly favored easing other VRA restrictions on states in the recent past.  They would need one of Roberts or Kavanaugh to back a requirement for a 2nd VRA district or to overturn the LA Supreme Court's adoption of Republican maps. 

I'm not actually seeing a much cause for Dem optimism here unless they have flipped SCOTUS by the time it gets there?  Maybe Edwards makes a deal where he will just sign whatever the GOP draws for the state leg if they send him a congressional map with 2 VRA districts?     

 
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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2019, 04:26:38 PM »

Hmmm... if this ends up in state court, the (partisan, elected, 5R/2D) Louisiana Supreme Court = Republicans win.  If it ends up in federal court, it gets appealed to the 5th Circuit, which also basically = Republicans win.  If it then gets appealed to SCOTUS, it's clear at this point that 3 SCOTUS Justices (Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch) are ready to strike down the requirement for VRA districts entirely.
 Roberts has clearly favored easing other VRA restrictions on states in the recent past.  They would need one of Roberts or Kavanaugh to back a requirement for a 2nd VRA district or to overturn the LA Supreme Court's adoption of Republican maps. 

I'm not actually seeing a much cause for Dem optimism here unless they have flipped SCOTUS by the time it gets there?  Maybe Edwards makes a deal where he will just sign whatever the GOP draws for the state leg if they send him a congressional map with 2 VRA districts?     

 

Also didn't the US Supreme Court basically ruled recently that when it comes to redistricting, state supreme courts have the final say?   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2019, 04:37:00 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 04:54:25 PM by Skill and Chance »

Hmmm... if this ends up in state court, the (partisan, elected, 5R/2D) Louisiana Supreme Court = Republicans win.  If it ends up in federal court, it gets appealed to the 5th Circuit, which also basically = Republicans win.  If it then gets appealed to SCOTUS, it's clear at this point that 3 SCOTUS Justices (Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch) are ready to strike down the requirement for VRA districts entirely.
 Roberts has clearly favored easing other VRA restrictions on states in the recent past.  They would need one of Roberts or Kavanaugh to back a requirement for a 2nd VRA district or to overturn the LA Supreme Court's adoption of Republican maps. 

I'm not actually seeing a much cause for Dem optimism here unless they have flipped SCOTUS by the time it gets there?  Maybe Edwards makes a deal where he will just sign whatever the GOP draws for the state leg if they send him a congressional map with 2 VRA districts?     

 

Also didn't the US Supreme Court basically ruled recently that when it comes to redistricting, state supreme courts have the final say?   


If it's under state law (as in PA and NC), yes.  They just reinforced that last year by refusing to take up the PA legislature's appeal of the new CD map imposed by the PA Supreme Court.  But any challenges in Louisiana will be based on the VRA, which is inherently federal, so I don't think the CD map ends up at the LA Supreme Court at all, and the LA Supreme Court's choice for the legislative maps could be appealed to SCOTUS on VRA grounds.  Again, though, the VRA plaintiffs would need at least one of Roberts and Kavanaugh when it gets there, possibly both. 

Edit: Roberts did rule against the 2012 version of the NC-01 VRA district in Cooper v. Harris, which is similar to the argument for needing to take LA-02 into Baton Rouge.  So he is a plausible vote for VRA plaintiffs against a CD map with NOLA and Baton Rouge in the same VRA district.  However, I think there is basically no chance of getting 5 SCOTUS votes to prevent the LA Supreme Court from adopting its preferred state legislative plan.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2019, 05:34:18 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 05:44:20 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

If I was JBE I would request the GOP a map like this


Why?
Its a compromise map first of all
2nd of all it includes his home parish so he could run here.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2019, 05:43:36 PM »

I don't have anything insightful to add, I just want to say that this series is great, please keep 'em coming.
Good to see I'm not screaming into the void Smiley . I fully intend these to become the main discussion Hubs as census data comes out and the state begin to prepare for redistricting. I figured it was best to start early and provide some background since states are already locking down the partisan divisions in the  legislative and gubernatorial branch, and some state are already preparing for redistricting. There was a conference in Texas I think a month back just outlining numerical reality to the  legislature for instance, and CA commission applications are all submitted for consideration. Once  I get a few more of these up I'll ping Moun and get a megathread for the links pinned.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2019, 07:11:34 PM »

If I was JBE I would request the GOP a map like this


Why?
Its a compromise map first of all
2nd of all it includes his home parish so he could run here.

Anything like that would be blatant gerrymandering.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2019, 07:29:53 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 07:33:55 PM by Skill and Chance »

If I was JBE I would request the GOP a map like this


Why?
Its a compromise map first of all
2nd of all it includes his home parish so he could run here.


Anything like that would be blatant gerrymandering.

Yes, that is dumb.  LA Dems will need to argue explicitly for a 2nd VRA protected district throughout the process.  That 1. gives federal courts a reason to intervene and bypass/overrule the R dominated LA Supreme Court 2. has the potential to create a precedent locking the 2nd VRA district in for future rounds of congressional redistricting even when Dems have no partisan say.
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2019, 08:32:12 PM »

[Anything like that would be blatant gerrymandering.
Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2019, 08:54:58 PM »

[Anything like that would be blatant gerrymandering.
Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

Yeah? It would be gerrymandering in both cases. In the other thread I was just pointing out how they can gerrymander, not just going ahead and saying it was right or anything.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2019, 11:35:29 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 11:39:28 PM by Skill and Chance »

It occurs to me that Justice Thomas is basically a sure vote to strike the current version of LA-02 or a 2021 district resembling it if he gets the opportunity, so I do think there will be separate NOLA and BR districts one way or another.  The 5th circuit likely makes a sweeping ruling that the VRA does not apply to redistricting at all, this gets appealed to SCOTUS, and then Roberts and Kavanaugh narrow it.

However, if the end result is VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all and JBE's veto holds, LA gets a 4R/2D map, but AL/MS/SC/TN/MO would then all have free reign to draw a clean GOP sweep if they wanted to.  The total number of Dem districts in Texas and Florida could plausibly be cut in half if drawn aggressively using CVAP and state courts look the other way.  On the other hand, Maryland would easily be a Dem sweep and Virginia could draw a hard 8D/3R if they wanted too.

I also wonder if this would lead to a test case with a state legislature voting to elect its congressional delegation at large?  I think national Dems would push California, New York, and Illinois (CA and NY have commissions, but IDK could they just not give the commission anything to draw?) to try that in VRA doesn't apply to redistricting world.  The Texas and Georgia GOP could try the same, but I think they would decide it was unwise to do that after 2018.     
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lfromnj
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 11:45:12 PM »

It occurs to me that Justice Thomas is basically a sure vote to strike the current version of LA-02 or a 2021 district resembling it if he gets the opportunity, so I do think there will be separate NOLA and BR districts one way or another.  The 5th circuit likely makes a sweeping ruling that the VRA does not apply to redistricting at all, this gets appealed to SCOTUS, and then Roberts and Kavanaugh narrow it.

However, if the end result is VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all and JBE's veto holds, LA gets a 4R/2D map, but AL/MS/SC/TN/MO would then all have free reign to draw a clean GOP sweep if they wanted to.  The total number of Dem districts in Texas and Florida could plausibly be cut in half if drawn aggressively using CVAP and state courts look the other way.  On the other hand, Maryland would easily be a Dem sweep and Virginia could draw a hard 8D/3R if they wanted too.

I also wonder if this would lead to a test case with a state legislature voting to elect its congressional delegation at large?  I think national Dems would push California, New York, and Illinois (CA and NY have commissions, but IDK could they just not give the commission anything to draw?) to try that in VRA doesn't apply to redistricting world.  The Texas and Georgia GOP could try the same, but I think they would decide it was unwise to do that after 2018.     

Only Alabama would be a sure goner, Mississippi is only a +15 Trump state and I doubt they would cut it up perfectly when you have parochial concerns.
TN is in a nice little corner and its super D so Cohen should be safe,
Lacy Clay is in a similar situation and Missouri needs atleast 1 D sink to avoid a dummymander
SC- i mean its Trump +15 and the R's just lost SC 1 so why would they want to risk a dummymander here especially when upstate won't represent low country.

Can't talk about Florida or Texas.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2019, 10:21:15 AM »



Wasserman's map as usual is rather simple and ignores the finer points like incumbent preferences.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2019, 10:38:04 AM »



Wasserman's map as usual is rather simple and ignores the finer points like incumbent preferences.

Looks quite good, looking at it from a glance it looks like JBE's hometown of Amite is in that district, national D's may not like JBE in a Likely D district but JBE does deserve a future career and he probably does make the district Safe D even during R waves.
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TML
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2019, 06:20:19 PM »

Note that 538's Atlas of Redistricting believes that the current map is a pro-Republican gerrymander, while a 4R-2D map (with no swing districts) would be the most pro-Democratic gerrymander, as well as the most proportionally partisan and the one with the most majority-minority districts (2). It also believes that it is possible to create two swing districts (one D-leaning and one R-leaning) by carving up New Orleans.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2019, 06:32:24 PM »

Note that 538's Atlas of Redistricting believes that the current map is a pro-Republican gerrymander, while a 4R-2D map (with no swing districts) would be the most pro-Democratic gerrymander, as well as the most proportionally partisan and the one with the most majority-minority districts (2). It also believes that it is possible to create two swing districts (one D-leaning and one R-leaning) by carving up New Orleans.
538s gerrymanders overall a pretty meh. Eg 7 4 Va

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2019, 06:41:46 PM »

Note that 538's Atlas of Redistricting believes that the current map is a pro-Republican gerrymander, while a 4R-2D map (with no swing districts) would be the most pro-Democratic gerrymander, as well as the most proportionally partisan and the one with the most majority-minority districts (2). It also believes that it is possible to create two swing districts (one D-leaning and one R-leaning) by carving up New Orleans.
538s gerrymanders overall a pretty meh. Eg 7 4 Va


Wasserman made 538's map and because he was making 200+ maps simultaneously there are obvious ways to improve them. Partisanship can be better/worse  on the gerry's and COI's can be improved for the fair, and cuts can be  reduced on the  county map. They are  also using 2010 data. Therefore, his maps are often good starting spots, not evidence. Now, 4-2 can be a dem gerry depending on the  numbers and lines behind said 4-2, but most are not. Same  with a 4-1-1 and a 5-1 (for Rs), hand-waving statements like that are not helpful.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2019, 09:40:06 AM »

Very much looking forward to the next installment of this series!
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2019, 05:00:31 PM »

I expect St. Bernard  or at least most of it, will be part of the New Orleans based minority district.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2019, 07:08:46 AM »

Here's a nice piece on how Louisiana is now a Redistricting battleground. Also mentions some of JBE's goals, but it mostly seems he is keeping his cards close to his chest.

Sorry about the big gap in Redistricting posts, I have been enjoying my holiday. I'll hopefully have some more out soon.
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« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2019, 06:16:51 PM »

I expect St. Bernard  or at least most of it, will be part of the New Orleans based minority district.
Is there significant black flight there?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2019, 09:01:36 PM »

I expect St. Bernard  or at least most of it, will be part of the New Orleans based minority district.
Is there significant black flight there?

Black population has risen from 17.7% in 2010 to 23.7% in 2017 while overall population has gone up significantly.

These are small numbers. Off the cuff, it's like from 6,000 to 11,000 people.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2020, 03:06:50 PM »

Republicans would be dumb to draw a 2nd vra district.  If JBE won't sign a map unless it has one, then it goes to courts who likely will draw a better map anyways.  R's have nothing to lose in that case.  They should try for a clean, compact map like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/74e52397-8e06-45d0-b6a4-9340c8618304
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2020, 03:16:42 PM »

It occurs to me that Justice Thomas is basically a sure vote to strike the current version of LA-02 or a 2021 district resembling it if he gets the opportunity, so I do think there will be separate NOLA and BR districts one way or another.  The 5th circuit likely makes a sweeping ruling that the VRA does not apply to redistricting at all, this gets appealed to SCOTUS, and then Roberts and Kavanaugh narrow it.

However, if the end result is VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all and JBE's veto holds, LA gets a 4R/2D map, but AL/MS/SC/TN/MO would then all have free reign to draw a clean GOP sweep if they wanted to.  The total number of Dem districts in Texas and Florida could plausibly be cut in half if drawn aggressively using CVAP and state courts look the other way.  On the other hand, Maryland would easily be a Dem sweep and Virginia could draw a hard 8D/3R if they wanted too.

I also wonder if this would lead to a test case with a state legislature voting to elect its congressional delegation at large?  I think national Dems would push California, New York, and Illinois (CA and NY have commissions, but IDK could they just not give the commission anything to draw?) to try that in VRA doesn't apply to redistricting world.  The Texas and Georgia GOP could try the same, but I think they would decide it was unwise to do that after 2018.     

Only Alabama would be a sure goner, Mississippi is only a +15 Trump state and I doubt they would cut it up perfectly when you have parochial concerns.
TN is in a nice little corner and its super D so Cohen should be safe,
Lacy Clay is in a similar situation and Missouri needs atleast 1 D sink to avoid a dummymander
SC- i mean its Trump +15 and the R's just lost SC 1 so why would they want to risk a dummymander here especially when upstate won't represent low country.

Can't talk about Florida or Texas.
Yeah AL is the obvious one where the black seat could be cut up if that's allowed.  MS could get away with it.  TN and SC would be risky (due to political geography and TN will already be cracking Nashville and SC-1 needs shoring up) and MO is out of the question.  As for FL, maybe the northern fl AA seat could go.  Crack Jacksonville.  In TX, eliminating a majority minority seat wouldn't be smart, but TX gop could increase Hispanic percentages in some seats to 90% which could really help in southern texas. 
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