2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I updated my map. I have two majority BCVAP districts. The New Orleans district is solidly Democratic. Unlike the early 1990s districts that were struck down my second BCVAP majority district is compact enough to be legal.

With parishes.



With numbers.



Partisan composition.

Quite good. Is there a reason two counties are split between the 3rd and 4th, though?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I updated my map. I have two majority BCVAP districts. The New Orleans district is solidly Democratic. Unlike the early 1990s districts that were struck down my second BCVAP majority district is compact enough to be legal.

With parishes.

With numbers.

Quite good. Is there a reason two counties are split between the 3rd and 4th, though?

Yes. Two parishes were split between the 3rd and 4th to give the 4th majority BCVAP. I just fixed that by removing a parish split and keeping the 4th majority BCVAP.

Interesting. That looks better. Good map.

[I’m not Stu]

Am I the only one here who uses directional numbering of Louisiana?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Am I the only one here who uses directional numbering of Louisiana?

So far as I've seen, yes.

[I’m not Stu]

I use directional numbering for all 50 states. Who might replace Julia Letlow on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: Troy Carter/Karen Carter Peterson
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: Clay Higgins
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I use directional numbering for all 50 states. Who might replace Julia Letlow on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: Troy Carter/Karen Carter Peterson
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: OPEN
LA-05: Clay Higgins
LA-06: Mike Johnson

If I had to guess, a Baton Rouge Democrat.

[I’m not Stu]

I use directional numbering for all 50 states. Who might replace Julia Letlow on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: Troy Carter/Karen Carter Peterson
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: OPEN
LA-05: Clay Higgins
LA-06: Mike Johnson

If I had to guess, a Baton Rouge Democrat.

Maybe Sharon Weston Broome?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I use directional numbering for all 50 states. Who might replace Julia Letlow on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: Troy Carter/Karen Carter Peterson
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: OPEN
LA-05: Clay Higgins
LA-06: Mike Johnson

If I had to guess, a Baton Rouge Democrat.

Maybe Sharon Weston Broome?

Definitely possible.
Is there any indications we have, either way, on whether she would pursue federal office?

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

Is this what you had in mind?

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

Is this what you had in mind?

No. Plaquemines and St. Bernard are still in LA-02 on your map. I would put them somewhere else. I didn't have in mind a three way split of EBR.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

Is this what you had in mind?

No. Plaquemines and St. Bernard are still in LA-02 on your map. I would put them somewhere else. I didn't have in mind a three way split of EBR.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
Duplicate this map and post in thread when you find a solution.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
easy 4-2 map
Inspiration came from Oryx's signature

I would take St. Bernard and Plaquemines out of LA-02.

Is this what you had in mind?

No. Plaquemines and St. Bernard are still in LA-02 on your map. I would put them somewhere else. I didn't have in mind a three way split of EBR.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/935ef5ef-b252-408c-afcb-84713f1b36f4
Duplicate this map and post in thread when you find a solution.

I don't know if that Baton Rouge-Shreveport district is compact enough to be legal.

[Sol]

I don't see a court drawing a second Dem CD myself. Other than doing away with the black seat gerrymander, this is designed within reason to be a least change map.

-snip-

Here's my take on a similar concept:


link

I figured Livingston Parish was a better fit with exurban New Orleans than Houma way down in the bayou. LA-02 is plurality Black but plurality white on CVAP, still it'd probably vote for the Black candidate of choice. You can probably get a little messy with it and push the Black #s up though.

[Torie]

That is certainly a reasonable map which the Pubs will not be drawing.

[I’m not Stu]

Under the test created by Bartlett v. Strickland, a second majority-minority district is required in Louisiana.

[Sol]

That is certainly a reasonable map which the Pubs will not be drawing.

Ah, I took your initial map to be a fair one but I see now it was intended as a realistic Republican map.

[I’m not Stu]

The GOP doesn’t have a veto-proof majority in both houses. The current map faces a lawsuit.

[Torie]

That is certainly a reasonable map which the Pubs will not be drawing.

Ah, I took your initial map to be a fair one but I see now it was intended as a realistic Republican map.

I didn't actually parse whether there was another reasonable map that would make the Baton Rouge CD swing rather than lean R, and just drew what looked reasonable to me that could be defended as not a gerrymander designed to deprive a minority of a CD that would entail legal risk. When I saw that the Baton Rouge CD I drew was lean GOP, my thought was the Pubs should go for it, as the best option for them balancing off the electoral and legal risks.

Your map certainly would be one for the Dems to bring up in court, but I think the odds are low that a court would insist on it due to the lack of a compact 50% BCVAP trigger CD being in play, and because even if there were one, I tend to doubt a court would insist on such a gerrymander in lieu of a non gerrymandered CD. In any event, I would think the Pubs would rather litigate the matter, then just throw in the towel, and thus my previous comment to you.

I hope the above discursive set of words makes some sense!  

Below are two other iterations.

[Sol]

Yeah sorry, I'm in the habit of drawing maps as if they were drawn by a commission--my map is probably not too realistic, thought I think it's decent?

[Torie]

Yeah sorry, I'm in the habit of drawing maps as if they were drawn by a commission--my map is probably not too realistic, thought I think it's decent?

Sure it's decent, but Livingston County is really the suburbs of Baton Rouge, rather than exurbs of NO.

[Sol]

Yeah sorry, I'm in the habit of drawing maps as if they were drawn by a commission--my map is probably not too realistic, thought I think it's decent?

Sure it's decent, but Livingston County is really the suburbs of Baton Rouge, rather than exurbs of NO.

I don't disagree, but IMO Houma in with St. Tammany is worse--putting one of the Florida parishes in with non-NOLA area Acadiana is bad CoI.

[lfromnj]

Yeah sorry, I'm in the habit of drawing maps as if they were drawn by a commission--my map is probably not too realistic, thought I think it's decent?

Sure it's decent, but Livingston County is really the suburbs of Baton Rouge, rather than exurbs of NO.

I don't disagree, but IMO Houma in with St. Tammany is worse--putting one of the Florida parishes in with non-NOLA area Acadiana is bad CoI.

Look at my maps for an earlier version, just start with East/North Jefferson Parish(whiter side compared to mixed south/West side) and then go to St Tammany.

[I’m not Stu]

I just updated my map to make it more compact and have fewer split parishes.

[Stuart98]

Proportionally partisan Louisiana (which will never happen, obviously)

President 2016:

LA1: West Florida


LA02: New Orleans


LA03: Acadiana


LA04: Black belt areas


LA05: North/Central Louisiana


LA06: Baton Rouge, River Parishes, northern Acadiana