2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1706293050949902419?t=JhNBXl2XX6XWcnbV_8MltQ&am...


Louisiana is having several different court hearings next week: this one potentially on the merits,  one in the lower court to implement a new map, one to potentially stay said lower court action.

[Oryxslayer]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

[Oryxslayer]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

Alito, who responds to these things from the 5th, has given the state until 10/10  to respond. Then it will be presented to the full body, similar to how the state of Alabamas appeal to halt the master was handled.  If the Milligan majority behaves like it did there, they will slap down the state for failing to comply the first time and affirm the plaintiffs. But this is Louisiana and that was Alabama,  so who knows if circumstances may change.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1710276913934033202?t=n9_pFRHp3Pp3NBcGX...

This is the 5th, but it isn't the panel who issued the hold on the lower court hearing.  Just like the lower hearing,  this hearing was Scheduled a while in advance,  but it's actions could be easily rendered moot by a higher court simply saying that they are doing it wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

Alito, who responds to these things from the 5th, has given the state until 10/10  to respond. Then it will be presented to the full body, similar to how the state of Alabamas appeal to halt the master was handled.  If the Milligan majority behaves like it did there, they will slap down the state for failing to comply the first time and affirm the plaintiffs. But this is Louisiana and that was Alabama,  so who knows if circumstances may change.

So basically, if SCOTUS sees LA as a similar situation to AL, we'll get a new map with 2 black opportunity seats by 2024. If not, the map will just stay as is?

Well the 5th could also just deny the state's appeal right here. The panel who heard the case today is responsible for the Preliminary Injunction, not a forthcoming full trial in the lower court. A full trial after a successful PI in these situations doesn't change things, but a PI can fail but a case succeed. There's also of course the issue that this panel is not the same panel who halted the PI hearing,  nor is it the full 5th.

It's all confusing since multiple courts are wading into the same case at the same time.

You can read here in the live thread about the trial today, but the judges don't seem fully sympathetic to the state. King is the Carter appointment,  the others are both Bush.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1710316553911095669?t=S2tk6C0reHmM_SdbRvlDYQ&am...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1718033339360096402?t=OCYNMaT2TculqQksrGrfVA&am...

This is the resolution to the cancelation panel and the Supreme Court. The 5ths separate hearing on the viability of the PI remains unresolved yet.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1723082352505590013?t=LnhhgbVYBelH-RHHrar...

This seems as clear, concise,  and definitive that it could be.  As is usual these days, there is extensive citations of Milligan. And the map's coming asap which is nice. We should expect the only choice to be Letlow, with Johnson and Scalise in high positions.

[Oryxslayer]

Won't the LA legislature just do the same thing they did in AL where they keep stalling by submitting maps that clearly don't meet the standard?

The obvious thing is that running out the clock is extremely hard in Louisiana cause filing deadlines and congressional campaigning officially starts very deep into the cycle, in July and September. A side effect of the jungle primaries being held on Election day.



Which is why according to the order, it doesn't matter if they do nothing or go against the spirit of the law. The case  itself, not the PI which this resolves, is in the district court where the plaintiffs already won in the pretrial PI. They pass a bad map or don't do anything, that court implements a master map after a quick case to be resolved in favor of the plaintiffs. This is the 5th observing long-standing federalism protocols and giving the mapping parties a attempt to do things on their own, before courts step in.

[Oryxslayer]

I truly Wonder which LA republican they will throw under the bus.

Theoretically anyone other than Scalise could get the axe, if they care about compactness though it's gotta be Johnson (lol) or Letlow though.

Doesn't it depend on Scalise's health? If he's privately intending to retire next year thanks to his health situation, that would be a reason to remove his seat and save the others. Which is easy enough to do, e.g.

The GOP is never putting Metairie in a Dem seat, no matter how good it looks FYI.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1724190784981778889?t=qshxOwJNEF6KpHu...

So the plan looks like no drawing to comply with the 5ths PI order, and instead try to argue a dead point in the merits trial before judges who have already ruled against them. Yeah, there's gonna be a master map.

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans are once again banking on Kavanaugh declaring "Racism is Over in America!" to save their map.

It ain't happening.

This is literally what happened in Alabama.  Despite every court telling them they needed to remap, the Alabama GOP huffed the copium. They said "Kav said he may be open to ruling against Sec 2 in the future, so this is really a 4.5 affirmative ruling, and let's just send that argument to him 2 months after we lost." And of course the court rejected them completely, not just on the merits but arguably cause this court likes finality of cases. It should be clear reading Kavanaughs opinion that what he meant was if given time the electoral situation improves in the South, like it has elsewhere, and minorities don't need access seats to get elected, then obviously Section 2 would have done it's job and is no longer needed.  But every state GOP sees that as their one out in Milligan,  so they are gonna keep huffing the copium, and keep falling on their face.

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans are once again banking on Kavanaugh declaring "Racism is Over in America!" to save their map.

It ain't happening.

This is literally what happened in Alabama.  Despite every court telling them they needed to remap, the Alabama GOP huffed the copium. They said "Kav said he may be open to ruling against Sec 2 in the future, so this is really a 4.5 affirmative ruling, and let's just send that argument to him 2 months after we lost." And of course the court rejected them completely, not just on the merits but arguably cause this court likes finality of cases. It should be clear reading Kavanaughs opinion that what he meant was if given time the electoral situation improves in the South, like it has elsewhere, and minorities don't need access seats to get elected, then obviously Section 2 would have done it's job and is no longer needed.  But every state GOP sees that as their one out in Milligan,  so they are gonna keep huffing the copium, and keep falling on their face.

This is misunderstanding what happened in Alabama. The state legislature just didn't want to be the ones responsible for ending a Republican Congressperson's career (and for choosing which one it would be). The same thing is probably playing out in Louisiana - especially because one of the real possibilities for getting the axe is the Speaker of the House.

Thats the state GOP's perspective. What I described was the courts perspective. Legally, the GOP can't say that before the judge, so they have to put up a sh**ty defense and try to justify it.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, the path forward is obvious now. The State, having spent their attempt to comply likely doing nothing, has lost the presumption of goodwill from the courts. Either the 5th will order the trial court to look for other resolutions such as a master, or because they vacated the PI in their order, the loss of goodwill will be the resolution to that order. There will then be a quick merits trial before the district court that the state already lost in and will almost certainly lose in again. Depending upon what the 5th's panel did, either that de facto concludes the case with their resolution (master) map, or immediately leads to a master-drawn remap. It's in theory the state's last stand, since all the courts with authority above them told Louisiana to create a second access congressional district.


To that end, here's some of the maps I have had in my pocket. One diagonal, one L shaped, but both with two versions. One version using the current division between the 1st and 6th approximately along the media market lines. The other version divides the two seats between north and south of the 2nd and the Mississippi River, like Stuart's maps which I found rather compelling.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1727050435687772565?t=lLhXskvnw3SyaDbDpTFYrw&am...

Scheduling in the trial court what comes next whether the state draws a map, or likely does not. Reminder this is an arena that has  already ruled against the state.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1730263257712103872?t=JtgHy7QL9n4ti9uet...

State given time for the new legislature to sit. February will determine if they lose a quick merits case given they lost the PI (into a master map), get special mastered cause the map is bad, or actually comply and end the game.

[Oryxslayer]

It would be interesting if revenge does lead to a new AA seat, cause I'm fully of the expectation that the special session will lead to a BS map like the Alabama attempt. AKA an attempt to further stall. Which will lead to a summary district court trial and ruling imposing a special master map, likely to be close to the plaintiffs map. But we shall see  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1740515521056084374?t=CuheOwVuvuLdlNNMU...

So it's been going in the background,  but there is a lawsuit against the court for not having 2 AA districts.  There is also just a general desire to bring the districts closer to OMOV, since Katrina created 150k+ pop deviations since the last time this got redrawn. The court wants both to be addressed here, seemingly proposing it's own map, (supposedly included but nobody right now has a visual copy) to be adopted without changes, that does both which has majority approval. Notable since that got 4/6 conservatives to sign on.

If the leg does take it up, they will either show deference to the court like in past sessions and just pass their stuff, or go the partisan route and fix the population deviation but not the access issues.

[Oryxslayer]

The district 6 is wild. Someone clearly wanted things like that. It's probably why the chief justice who sits in district 6 didn't sign the letter.  The other thing to note is that only districts 1 and 7 maintain their current geography. The other 5 shuffle around so that District 2, Whose incumbent is termed up in 2024 (and Scott Crichton didn't sign the notice fyi), is made the AA district in accordance with the stated principles.

Anyway, the proposal is a unique opportunity to fix the many problems and cut through the gordian knot surrounding the court, and should ideally be accepted at face value, even with some backroom shenanigans.

[Oryxslayer]

Supreme Court redistricting has been placed on the agenda alongside Congressional remapping for the Special Session (overlapping) that starts on the 15th.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1746586429751185700?t=-fng1EB8kjbSjRILPy...

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1746575935376142821?t=j9SIbI-LcXbHbFnQpvRA3g&am...


Fields represents SD 14 in downtown Baton Rouge. Though drawing a seat specifically for a certain candidate won't go as easily as before if the state eliminates the jungle system,  denying the ability of Rs to vote for one D versus another in a runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

We'll have to see what happens, but if there is an actual resolution during the special session (starts today), i wouldn't put any tactical strategy to it. Rather, just the new Gov showing he doesn't want to fight this losing battle anymore, and the State and Fedral Supreme Courts signaling that they and their authority/prestige also want it all over.

[Oryxslayer]

If this follows that last time, a big if, there will be a mountain of maps sponsored,  few taken up. If more come, it's probably not this one cause of White southern BR in the 6th. Though it does suggest the session will have a product of resolution rather than continual conflict. One: it's a 2AA map coming from the GOP.  2: it has all the elements of what we were foreshadowed by merging 5 and 6.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m suprised that plan appears to take in nearly all of EastBaton Rouge County Parish. Would’ve thought the GOP would’ve kept out some of the R-leaning decently well-to-do southern part of the County for donor purposes, plus that area is shifting left which might put the district out the reach for Rs in the long run.

Probably a case of wanting the district to favour Letlow over Graves.

Building off this map, you can still do this while having the seat favor the north of the state. You just get the 1st a bit more - but not too much - more involved in the BR region probably by dropping its parts of St. Bernard, St. Charles, and choice precincts in NOLA and the East Bank of Jefferson. Then you do the big rotation of pop through 3 and 4 so specific areas get added to 6 to compensate for losing the GOP part of the city.

[Oryxslayer]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

It’s hard to tell but does 1 take in some heavily D precincts along the New Orleans waterfront? Or are the areas it takes in all basically 0 population or Republican leaning

I think thats just Lakeview, the water precinct, and the Bayou precincts in the far east for road connectivity from the bridge to the south suburbs.