2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Minnesota Mike]

Anyone have shapefiles or a link to a DRA version of the map passed by the legislature?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even a 53% black district is very possible.

The real thing is in order to make LA-05 majority black, LA-02 will probably become 49% black or smtg, possibly be condensed almost just to New Orleans, but would obviously remain safe D and black functioning.

I still think Dems have a slightly better argument for a 2nd black district here than AL, but for a variety of reasons it seems less likely than not to happen.

[BoiseBoy]

Anyone have shapefiles or a link to a DRA version of the map passed by the legislature?

Does anyone have it? I can't import the block equivalency .txt that the legislature's website provides.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a legal under current SCOTUS 6-0 GOP map.

[BoiseBoy]

I made a legal under current SCOTUS 6-0 GOP map.

Your schtick gets old, fast.

[GALeftist]

I made a legal under current SCOTUS 6-0 GOP map.

Wait, wait, wait. You're telling me you can divide a Safe R state into 6 Safe R subdivisions? Impossible. Preposterous. Utterly absurd.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Louisiana map has been overturned by federal court and in the opinion it sounds like they specifically say there’s still time to make a new map.

However there’s a good chance we end up with a simillar thing that happened in Alabama whee the ruling gets stayed though the 2nd black district has a slightly stronger case in Louisiana.

Reguardless of whether you think Louisiana should get a 2nd black seat, the original map is clearly gerrymanders and absolutely horrendous visually.

Also a reminder given turnout dynamics a 2nd black seat likely will be competitive/D leaning but certainly not a slam dunk for Dems, simillar to GA-02 ig where’s its right around 50% and picks up quite a few Dem leaning cities after crossing through a lot of rurals

[Torie]

Actually, pending whatever further attenuation or evisceration SCOTUS has in mind for it,  under the current iteration of the VRA (as opposed to some interpretation of a state law ala Florida), I think that while there is a violation of the VRA in Alabama, because it looks to me that two "compact" 50% BVAP CD's can be drawn, that is not the case in LA. Two* such compact CD's cannot be drawn in LA (a CD combining the black areas of Baton Rouge and Shreveport is not compact).* So I think the trial court decision** is clearly wrong, and will be stayed if not reversed in very short order by the federal appellate court.***

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bfa1863-ed2e-466e-9d9f-90b35e656962

*Actually it is even a challenge to draw such a compact 50% BVAP CD in the NO area, but in the end it can be done, barely, if one accepts that water is good enough for contiguity.

**Did the trial court decision even grapple with the compact issue?

***The unpacking of LA-02 (allegedly 70% black) is another issue, and may well have merit, in particular  since it must combine the black areas of Baton Rouge and NO to get to such a high percentage when such a combination is not needed to get to 50% BVAP, much less a performing black CD.

[Torie]

Anyone have shapefiles or a link to a DRA version of the map passed by the legislature?

Does anyone have it? I can't import the block equivalency .txt that the legislature's website provides.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42873bd9-ce68-4ee1-878e-be420dbf0ee3

[Nyvin]

The current map is a total mess, LA-1 uses water continuity to connect to the southeast and LA-6 is about as non-compact as you can get.


If LA-2 is allowed to go to like ~49.5 BVAP it's pretty easy to make a second black seat,  the LA-5 in this map actually isn't all that much changed from the current one other than going into Baton Rouge.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cdc7e216-2e8b-4095-ba10-dd0d45a98e54

[Torie]

The current map is a total mess, LA-1 uses water continuity to connect to the southeast and LA-6 is about as non-compact as you can get.


If LA-2 is allowed to go to like ~49.5 BVAP it's pretty easy to make a second black seat,  the LA-5 in this map actually isn't all that much changed from the current one other than going into Baton Rouge.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cdc7e216-2e8b-4095-ba10-dd0d45a98e54

Your map is quite good and I don't know how I missed that solution. It certainly makes for a closer case as to whether your Baton Rouge based district that then runs up the river, is "compact." Well done.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually, pending whatever further attenuation or evisceration SCOTUS has in mind for it,  under the current iteration of the VRA (as opposed to some interpretation of a state law ala Florida), I think that while there is a violation of the VRA in Alabama, because it looks to me that two "compact" 50% BVAP CD's can be drawn, that is not the case in LA. Two* such compact CD's cannot be drawn in LA (a CD combining the black areas of Baton Rouge and Shreveport is not compact).* So I think the trial court decision** is clearly wrong, and will be stayed if not reversed in very short order by the federal appellate court.***

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8bfa1863-ed2e-466e-9d9f-90b35e656962

*Actually it is even a challenge to draw such a compact 50% BVAP CD in the NO area, but in the end it can be done, barely, if one accepts that water is good enough for contiguity.

**Did the trial court decision even grapple with the compact issue?

***The unpacking of LA-02 (allegedly 70% black) is another issue, and may well have merit, in particular  since it must combine the black areas of Baton Rouge and NO to get to such a high percentage when such a combination is not needed to get to 50% BVAP, much less a performing black CD.

You don’t have to go to Shreveport but it partially depends if you believe a black functioning district is sufficient since 48% is a ton easier than 50%

I agree it likely gets stayed or overturned or whatever by the 5th circuit but LA-02 is a pretty blatant pack, especially since Baton Rouge blacks population is growing, so there’s a small chance they eliminate the snake while still only keeping 1 black majority (and hence Dem seat)

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I'm curious about is why does it seem like LA and AR rural black voters turn out at much lower rates than those in AL, MS, and GA?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Do you all seriously think SCOTUS won't shut this down? LOL. The only map with any chance of getting better for us is FL

[lividnyx]

SB2 managed two compact majority black districts (DRA).

[soundchaser]

I would love if District 2 could somehow be extended to Jefferson Parish until the lake so I never have to think about Steve Scalise again.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a more compact map than SB2 with less parish splitting that has two performing districts with CVAP majority.

[Politician]

Do you all seriously think SCOTUS won't shut this down? LOL. The only map with any chance of getting better for us is FL

Not to mention you still have to worry about mid-decade redistricting by R's in your state if they flip the state Supreme Court this year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Do you all seriously think SCOTUS won't shut this down? LOL. The only map with any chance of getting better for us is FL

Not to mention you still have to worry about mid-decade redistricting by R's in your state if they flip the state Supreme Court this year.

And if Rs win the SC in IL. Or PA later in the decade lol. The list is endless

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you all seriously think SCOTUS won't shut this down? LOL. The only map with any chance of getting better for us is FL

Not to mention you still have to worry about mid-decade redistricting by R's in your state if they flip the state Supreme Court this year.

And if Rs win the SC in IL. Or PA later in the decade lol. The list is endless

PA isn't even possible till 2026 barring suprise deaths and an R trifecta, and even then, overturning the current map wouldn't necessarily lead to a gerrymander. Also one of the Rs was appointed by Woof and is relatively moderate.

IL is def a greater concern for Dems and obv NC is almost certain to go back to being an R gerry.

Ohio really depends on if Dems get a commission on the ballot in 2024 (which would likely pass). Worst case it is a 13R-2D map, thoguh the rules make a truly maximal gerrymander tricky.

[Torie]

Do you all seriously think SCOTUS won't shut this down? LOL. The only map with any chance of getting better for us is FL

Not to mention you still have to worry about mid-decade redistricting by R's in your state if they flip the state Supreme Court this year.

And if Rs win the SC in IL. Or PA later in the decade lol. The list is endless

PA isn't even possible till 2026 barring suprise deaths and an R trifecta, and even then, overturning the current map wouldn't necessarily lead to a gerrymander. Also one of the Rs was appointed by Woof and is relatively moderate.

IL is def a greater concern for Dems and obv NC is almost certain to go back to being an R gerry.

Ohio really depends on if Dems get a commission on the ballot in 2024 (which would likely pass). Worst case it is a 13R-2D map, thoguh the rules make a truly maximal gerrymander tricky.

I am amazed how you can manage to do your homework (which I am confident that you do) and keep up with all this lacunae with such facility. Well done. What is going to  happen when "lust" consumes you? No, you do not need  to, and indeed, should not answer, that question!  

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you all seriously think SCOTUS won't shut this down? LOL. The only map with any chance of getting better for us is FL

Not to mention you still have to worry about mid-decade redistricting by R's in your state if they flip the state Supreme Court this year.

And if Rs win the SC in IL. Or PA later in the decade lol. The list is endless

PA isn't even possible till 2026 barring suprise deaths and an R trifecta, and even then, overturning the current map wouldn't necessarily lead to a gerrymander. Also one of the Rs was appointed by Woof and is relatively moderate.

IL is def a greater concern for Dems and obv NC is almost certain to go back to being an R gerry.

Ohio really depends on if Dems get a commission on the ballot in 2024 (which would likely pass). Worst case it is a 13R-2D map, thoguh the rules make a truly maximal gerrymander tricky.

I am amazed how you can manage to do your homework (which I am confident that you do) and keep up with all this lacunae with such facility. Well done. What is going to  happen when "lust" consumes you? No, you do not need  to, and indeed, should not answer, that question!  

Tbf school is pretty much coming to an end so there's not much work, and plus I'm autistic hence don't have many friends, at least that I see irl reguarly, which is time consuming for a lot of people.

Also I'd say generally I'm a pretty efficient person when it comes to work, at least compared to a lot of folks my age.

I think another reason you may think I may keep up more than I do is I have a decent memory, so a lot of times I only need to read some electoral fact once or twice to get it engrained.

The specific reasons ik the court compositions decently well is because i did a project on it back in June or smtg last year

I did make this tonight though

[I’m not Stu]

RIP Troy Carter?

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1536727430681227264?cxt=HHwWgMDT5ZndxtMqAAAA

[Torie]

Did Stern see another leaked opinion or something? Or is he clairvoyant? God the spam that is out there. I don't think the VRA will be gutted myself, but it may be narrowed, e.g., a district does drawn that violates neutral redistricting principles will not be considered compact to trigger Gingles, and a district that does violate neutral redistricting principles does if it packs minorities. We shall see.

[I’m not Stu]

Did Stern see another leaked opinion or something? Or is he clairvoyant? God the spam that is out there. I don't think the VRA will be gutted myself, but it may be narrowed, e.g., a district does drawn that violates neutral redistricting principles will not be considered compact to trigger Gingles, and a district that does violate neutral redistricting principles does if it packs minorities. We shall see.

He is clairvoyant.