2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[walleye26]

I can’t remember the answer, but do Republicans have veto override numbers on JBE? If not, I bet he could hold off for a competitive 2nd Dem district.

[politicallefty]

I can’t remember the answer, but do Republicans have veto override numbers on JBE? If not, I bet he could hold off for a competitive 2nd Dem district.

The Louisiana Senate has a Republican supermajority, but the House does not (it's currently 68R-33D-3I). It all depends on what the independents do. Assuming a strict party-line vote, Democrats need two of the three independents.

[It’s so Joever]

If JBE delivers, he will be the best governor in the country.

[Biden his time]

Is it possible to make two compact black-majority seats or not?

I've made a bunch of non-compact ones but they don't look quite as good as I'd like

THIS POST HAS BEEN MOVED FROM A NOW-OBSOLETE THREAD

[chalmetteowl]

I can’t remember the answer, but do Republicans have veto override numbers on JBE? If not, I bet he could hold off for a competitive 2nd Dem district.

i kind of hope LA Republicans can trade a 4R-2D map for even bigger supermajorities in the legislature that would require more defections to derail Republican priorities. We had the veto session recently and R's didn't accomplish what they came there to do because some were claiming dubious travel restrictions due to curiously timed knee surgery, etc. as the Republican speaker of the state house publicly admitted he didn't want to do his job and whip votes. Those overrides failed by like one or two votes and JBE and the Democrats gloated.

[Mr.Phips]

I can’t remember the answer, but do Republicans have veto override numbers on JBE? If not, I bet he could hold off for a competitive 2nd Dem district.

i kind of hope LA Republicans can trade a 4R-2D map for even bigger supermajorities in the legislature that would require more defections to derail Republican priorities. We had the veto session recently and R's didn't accomplish what they came there to do because some were claiming dubious travel restrictions due to curiously timed knee surgery, etc. as the Republican speaker of the state house publicly admitted he didn't want to do his job and whip votes. Those overrides failed by like one or two votes and JBE and the Democrats gloated.

You’d have to eliminate a handful of black influence and black majority districts in the House for that, which can’t happen due to the VRA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e24626c-029b-478a-b504-74253f34993b

I sought to drew this as a non-partisan map.
One seat is contained completely within the Florida Parishes. No black-majority seats, but there is one that is Biden+9.9, 47% black, 43% white in total population (most of Baton Rouge) and another that is Biden+28.6, 42% black, 40% white (NOLA+all but 49k of Jefferson Parish).
The rest are safe Republican.

[If my soul was made of stone]

At the expense of most other priorities that one values in redistricting, and with extremely sketchy road contiguity (gotta love Pontchartrain Causeway abuse!), I managed to draw a map of Louisiana with three majority-minority seats, the seat resembling the current 2nd being Black-majority:



This image shows 2020 presidential colors; JBE wins the northern seat as well.

[lfromnj]

https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-census-2020-baton-rouge-redistricting-louisiana-supreme-court-d095ea2632e15a74f11bdb00764a6a8e



As of right now the most overpopulated is the Baton Rouge district at 850k while the Orleans district is 430k. Ideal is around 650k. Expanding New Orleans doesn't really hurt Democrats as it would still be Safe D while the Baton Rouge district losing 200k R areas would make it a lightly dem trending swing district. As far as I see county splits have been done in the New Orleans area. As Supreme court districts don't have strict standards for deviation I decided to treat East and West Jefferson Parish as separate Parish's and accept the extra deviation .

[If my soul was made of stone]

I took a crack at a State Senate map:



Trump '20 wins 25 of 39 seats. JBE wins only three more than Biden, due to racial polarization and geographic disadvantage. Drawing a map where he wins a majority of seats requires throwing compactness and ideal minority representation out the window entirely.

11 seats are >40% Black VAP. The ugliness in Jefferson Parish is for the sake of maximizing minority representation against the totalizing wishes of the Big White Brick That Once Sent David Duke To The State House.

As I was asked on Discord before posting this here, I have checked to make sure that every seat has adequate road contiguity.

[chalmetteowl]

https://louisiana.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=current_2011&propB=congress_chrishenry1_20220104#%26map=6.4/31.25/-91.848

wanted to add this link, which has plans for LA House, Senate, and Congressional districts

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like all plans so far make a Baton-Rouge based swingy-Dem leaning seat. Are any of these plans actually official plans though proposed by the legistlature?

NAACP Plan3 is pretty ridiculous as it tries to connect Baton Rouge with Shreveport to create a Black Majority district

[lfromnj]

Seems like all plans so far make a Baton-Rouge based swingy-Dem leaning seat. Are any of these plans actually official plans though proposed by the legistlature?

NAACP Plan3 is pretty ridiculous as it tries to connect Baton Rouge with Shreveport to create a Black Majority district

No, the legislature might either just decide it to offer a compromise Livingston BR seat or just send it through the courts and hope for least change.

[Oryxslayer]

NAACP Plan3 is pretty ridiculous as it tries to connect Baton Rouge with Shreveport to create a Black Majority district

Is it though? The road network and patterns of settlement, not to mention the Red River, all flow diagonally. Seems much more reasonable if you are going for a Second AA seat than the reach-around along the state border.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AlexIp718/status/1479515755163095040?s=20

JBE is officially in favor of a fight.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like there's several options here.

First is JBE and the legislature gridlock forcing a court-drawn map. While the LA supreme court leans right, I think they'd have to be very hackish to keep the LA-02 snake and abide by a very strict definition of least change. I think they either moderately keep the snake in place or just hire special masters and completely scrap the current map, in which case at the very least you'd get a swingy Baton - Rouge seat that is black opportunity if not majority. Seems like a seat that connects Lafayette, Alexandria, and maybe to Monroe and Bastrop is more likely than one that stretches all the way to get the black areas of Shrevport.

Important to remember here that LA-02 doesn't actually take in all that much of Baton - Rouge (~100k), just the bluest parts, meaning pretty much any "fattening" of the snake on it's Orleans end in a district that is already pretty close to ideal population as is will pull it out of Baton-Rouge very quickly.

The second option is JBE and the Leg reach a compromise map, which would probably make Baton-Rouge based seat swingy and black-plurality but stops short of being outright majority

The third option is Rs gerry by getting a conservative Dem or one of the Independents on board. This would be quite a narrow tightrope to walk as you'd need all Rs on board too but given how partisan Louisiana politics are, especially on the Republican side, it certaintly wouldn't be impossible. Maybe they give someone in the Legistlature the district of their dreams in exchange for their vote on a 5-1 map.

Will def be interesting to see how this plays out; I feel both 5-1 and 4-2 are possibilities.

[Torie]

I don’t really see a second black performing CD as being in the cards if a court draws the map.

It certainly is not in a least change map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e319ee0b-1f09-4e6b-867a-9d7c625371b4

And it still isn’t in a less least change map that gets rid of a potentially illegal black pack under the VRA. The less least change map gets the Dems within 10 points in the Baton Rouge CD, but no cigar: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ada627f0-6bff-42ea-b569-a314dbdd7971

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1493280747913887755

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1493280747913887755

Wow, that's interesting and unexpected.

[GALeftist]

You'd still need two defections for the court to rule against the GOP (one if you include the Independent Chief Justice with the Democrats; he's in the 6th, which is not in Baton Rouge and therefore seems unlikely to be axed). That seems unlikely, so it's probably a low-risk, high-reward move which maintains OK relations with black LA Democrats after the congressional gerrymander.

[Oryxslayer]

You'd still need two defections for the court to rule against the GOP (one if you include the Independent Chief Justice with the Democrats; he's in the 6th, which is not in Baton Rouge and therefore seems unlikely to be axed). That seems unlikely, so it's probably a low-risk, high-reward move which maintains OK relations with black LA Democrats after the congressional gerrymander.

Apparently this map was left to die on the floor, with a 6-1 map that makes only changes for population passed out of the chambers, though given the incoming veto it is not the end. Apparently there is some movement within the GOP to restart the 9-seat court proposal, which would then be allow the necessary (given the desire to invalidate court challenges) AA seats to be drawn without disturbing the majority or the incumbents.

[patzer]

Had a play around with maps if they did increase the supreme court seats to 9 seats. Seems to be a case of compact districts and minimal county splits for supreme court seats.

A 6-3 map is doable but has two significant disadvantages: firstly the two New Orleans districts would be plurality white (albeit safe D), and secondly the 5th would be almost completely changed which the incumbent there may not be happy with.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/21f797b5-5409-4401-9903-6495faf344fe

On the other hand a 7-2 map can be done with only a single county split, with existing districts preserved better, and it looks neater, but of course 7-2 is less proportional. https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd521948-0117-4230-ae3c-822f69317fed

[Oryxslayer]

Here's what I got for a 9-seat court map, though this is all still very much up in the air, and an expansion would require a amendment to go before the voters in November - though it would likely pass with decent support from both parties.

All the counties included in this grouping are only about 25K overpopulated, which is fine for a 5% deviation and five seats. Swapping Iberia for West Feliciana and Pointe Coupee puts the group around 15K underpopulated, which is still fine though as I will explain in a moment, why would you do it.

First districts drawn here is D1 which can be nested in St. Tammany and the White East Bank, which interlocks with the presently majority African American D7 in NOLA. Given the lower populations though D7 can remain nested in Jefferson and Orleans. D5 gets as much White areas as possible between St. Tammany and BR, and the reduction of the district size means there is actually the oddity of having a bit too many White precincts for a single seat in this part of the state. new D8 follows the African American population and D6 just goes westwards until it remarkably hits a good pop deviation. Swapping Iberia and West Feliciana + Pointe Coupee therefore would either require removing AA areas from D8 or have D6 go deeper than needed into Jefferson. The two AA seats in this grouping kinda draw themselves.



The next issue though is the contours of the western 4 seats. The intention appears to be to add a third AA seat as well, and the western grouping has the population for it, but the options are less obvious or neat.

[lfromnj]

https://archive.fo/nLyzF

On the black Democrat who supported the 5-1 plan.

[BoiseBoy]

This map passed the house and senate. Bel Edwards will likely veto.

https://twitter.com/PiperHutchBR/status/1494713664397627397?s=20&t=MH7L5U6K2...