2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.

Would Edwards himself run in this LA-06?  He seems like the perfect candidate for it.

*He'd have to wait until 2024, but there's no way a Deep South Trump seat is flipping for Generic D in the 2022 midterm. 

He’s dead

[S019]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.

Would Edwards himself run in this LA-06?  He seems like the perfect candidate for it.

*He'd have to wait until 2024, but there's no way a Deep South Trump seat is flipping for Generic D in the 2022 midterm. 

He’s dead

I think that the poster is refer to John Bel Edwards, the incumbent Governor, not Edwin Edwards, the now deceased comically corrupt ex-Governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.

Would Edwards himself run in this LA-06?  He seems like the perfect candidate for it.

*He'd have to wait until 2024, but there's no way a Deep South Trump seat is flipping for Generic D in the 2022 midterm. 

He’s dead

I think that the poster is refer to John Bel Edwards, the incumbent Governor, not Edwin Edwards, the now deceased comically corrupt ex-Governor.

Doesn’t John Bel Edwards live in LA-1 on this map?

[Skill and Chance]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.

Would Edwards himself run in this LA-06?  He seems like the perfect candidate for it.

*He'd have to wait until 2024, but there's no way a Deep South Trump seat is flipping for Generic D in the 2022 midterm. 

He’s dead

I think that the poster is refer to John Bel Edwards, the incumbent Governor, not Edwin Edwards, the now deceased comically corrupt ex-Governor.

Doesn’t John Bel Edwards live in LA-1 on this map?

IDK- this map splits his home Parish between LA-01 and LA-06.

[I’m not Stu]

Edwards came from Amite, which is in my LA-06.

[chalmetteowl]

Edwards came from Amite, which is in my LA-06.

i keep on saying: the only D who can win in LA other than the VRA house district is Edwards, and he shouldn't waste his time on a House seat when he can challenge for Cassidy's seat in 2026

[I’m not Stu]

Edwards came from Amite, which is in my LA-06.

i keep on saying: the only D who can win in LA other than the VRA house district is Edwards, and he shouldn't waste his time on a House seat when he can challenge for Cassidy's seat in 2026

Do you mean with a GOP gerrymander or a nonpartisan map like mine?

[Skill and Chance]

Edwards came from Amite, which is in my LA-06.

i keep on saying: the only D who can win in LA other than the VRA house district is Edwards, and he shouldn't waste his time on a House seat when he can challenge for Cassidy's seat in 2026

Maybe, but this only makes sense if the president in 2026 is a Republican.  He could have a nearly sure thing lined up in 2024 if he's willing to go to the House. 

[It’s so Joever]

Edwards came from Amite, which is in my LA-06.

i keep on saying: the only D who can win in LA other than the VRA house district is Edwards, and he shouldn't waste his time on a House seat when he can challenge for Cassidy's seat in 2026

Lol.
If Edwards is dumb enough to think he could win a senate race statewide...I don’t know what to say.

[I’m not Stu]

Updated for better compactness.



Presidential results in 2020.



2019 gubernatorial runoff results.

[chalmetteowl]

Edwards came from Amite, which is in my LA-06.

i keep on saying: the only D who can win in LA other than the VRA house district is Edwards, and he shouldn't waste his time on a House seat when he can challenge for Cassidy's seat in 2026

Lol.
If Edwards is dumb enough to think he could win a senate race statewide...I don’t know what to say.

he just won governor statewide twice, and Cassidy voted guilty on Trump's second impeachment.

now if it's anyone else but Cassidy, he doesn't have a shot

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

At first I didn't believe it.
But lo and behold...
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ec3a530-2366-437b-9bea-014fbf0d2edd
Only 50 Trump districts, out of 105.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

At first I didn't believe it.
But lo and behold...
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ec3a530-2366-437b-9bea-014fbf0d2edd
Only 50 Trump districts, out of 105.

Nice job! It's def a suprising example of pretty extreme favorable geography

[Skill and Chance]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

At first I didn't believe it.
But lo and behold...
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ec3a530-2366-437b-9bea-014fbf0d2edd
Only 50 Trump districts, out of 105.

Nice job! It's def a suprising example of pretty extreme favorable geography

Holy crap.  LA Dems need to find 10+ JBE wannabes ASAP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

At first I didn't believe it.
But lo and behold...
https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ec3a530-2366-437b-9bea-014fbf0d2edd
Only 50 Trump districts, out of 105.

Nice job! It's def a suprising example of pretty extreme favorable geography

I tried to do the same thing with the State Senate. It definitely is harder. I still was able to get a majority of Biden districts though.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/50529d59-7aed-4668-a24e-7bf09aca8c13

[Roll Roons]

Are we going to see a trend where Democrats increasingly have geographical advantages in the Deep South?

[Skill and Chance]

Are we going to see a trend where Democrats increasingly have geographical advantages in the Deep South?

Yes, with the possible exception of GA because almost all the Dems are within 50 miles of Atlanta, but even there the majority-white rural areas are now extreme R packs, so it’s starting to even out.

[chalmetteowl]

Are we going to see a trend where Democrats increasingly have geographical advantages in the Deep South?

i wouldn't think there would be any advantage when both parties are packed similarly. it depends on who draws the maps

they can be centered in cities and fan out (New Orleans could have three different Democrat House members who win close races in swingy districts) or be bigger in size and just dip into the cities (New Orleans could have 0 Democrat House members, each losing close races to suburban R members)

[Skill and Chance]

BTW didn't Louisiana just propose/pass an amendment to change the size (and by necessity change the districts) of the state supreme court from 7 to 9 justices?  I believe this was a bipartisan affair and one of the goals was to have 3 black-majority districts instead of the current 1? 

[lfromnj]

BTW didn't Louisiana just propose/pass an amendment to change the size (and by necessity change the districts) of the state supreme court from 7 to 9 justices?  I believe this was a bipartisan affair and one of the goals was to have 3 black-majority districts instead of the current 1? 

I think it failed in the house. Also I think 9 seats only gives 2 black majority really regarding an Orleans and Baton Rouge seat.

[Skill and Chance]

BTW didn't Louisiana just propose/pass an amendment to change the size (and by necessity change the districts) of the state supreme court from 7 to 9 justices?  I believe this was a bipartisan affair and one of the goals was to have 3 black-majority districts instead of the current 1? 

I think it failed in the house. Also I think 9 seats only gives 2 black majority really regarding an Orleans and Baton Rouge seat.

Yes, confirmed it failed. 

The current LA Supreme Court is 5R/1D/1I(former rural D).

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to draw a 4R - 2D LA map. Both Dem seats are AA opportunity seats, but they're pluralities though. The 2nd Dem seat Biden won by around 5%.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a89d787c-6052-4c21-895f-081350e22010

[Spectator]

Are we going to see a trend where Democrats increasingly have geographical advantages in the Deep South?

Yes, with the possible exception of GA because almost all the Dems are within 50 miles of Atlanta, but even there the majority-white rural areas are now extreme R packs, so it’s starting to even out.

Even in Georgia there’s still a lot of deep blue pockets outside the growing Atlanta bubble. It’s easy to draw two Safe Democrat non-ATL seats with the current GA-02 and a Savannah to Augusta seat. On top of that, you can draw a blue-tilting district with Athens, plus the rural black belt counties east of Macon and drawing all the way to pick up parts of Gwinnett County that GA-07 has left over.

[Skill and Chance]

Are we going to see a trend where Democrats increasingly have geographical advantages in the Deep South?

Yes, with the possible exception of GA because almost all the Dems are within 50 miles of Atlanta, but even there the majority-white rural areas are now extreme R packs, so it’s starting to even out.

Even in Georgia there’s still a lot of deep blue pockets outside the growing Atlanta bubble. It’s easy to draw two Safe Democrat non-ATL seats with the current GA-02 and a Savannah to Augusta seat. On top of that, you can draw a blue-tilting district with Athens, plus the rural black belt counties east of Macon and drawing all the way to pick up parts of Gwinnett County that GA-07 has left over.

Yes, I looked into it since making that post, and GA is not actually a slam dunk for R's geographically like say WI or MI.  It's only a bare advantage. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are we going to see a trend where Democrats increasingly have geographical advantages in the Deep South?

Yes, with the possible exception of GA because almost all the Dems are within 50 miles of Atlanta, but even there the majority-white rural areas are now extreme R packs, so it’s starting to even out.

Even in Georgia there’s still a lot of deep blue pockets outside the growing Atlanta bubble. It’s easy to draw two Safe Democrat non-ATL seats with the current GA-02 and a Savannah to Augusta seat. On top of that, you can draw a blue-tilting district with Athens, plus the rural black belt counties east of Macon and drawing all the way to pick up parts of Gwinnett County that GA-07 has left over.

Yes, I looked into it since making that post, and GA is not actually a slam dunk for R's geographically like say WI or MI.  It's only a bare advantage.  

Ye according to my calculations, GA’s geography bias is R + 1.52. States like WI and MI have a geography bias above R + 10. I think another big difference between GA and a lot of southern states is the fact Atlanta metro actually has pretty decent turnout, alongside the fact at least downtown is a Dem hyper-pack