2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[I’m not Stu]

Proportionally partisan Louisiana (which will never happen, obviously)

LA04: Black belt areas

That LA-04 is illegal because it isn't reasonably compact.

[Stuart98]

Proportionally partisan Louisiana (which will never happen, obviously)

LA04: Black belt areas

That LA-04 is illegal because it isn't reasonably compact.

Is that definite? I know the '92 Shreveport to Baton Rouge to Lafeyette district was struck down, but that district was... vastly less compact than this one.

[I’m not Stu]

LA-02 is large plurality BCVAP. LA-05 is majority BCVAP.

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Garret Graves
LA-04: Clay Higgins
LA-05: Mike Johnson
LA-06: OPEN



Partisanship.

[I’m not Stu]

My take on what a realistic map drawn by the GOP could look like. JBE can veto maps. 5R-1D.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/772fdfb1-c5d8-4211-b1a2-5de05e2a90cf

Tried making a sane map with two D seats.

Louisiana is roughly 32% AA so two out of six districts (33%) being able to elect AA's candidates of choice is a reasonable argument to make in court.

[I’m not Stu]

This is what a more fair GOP map might look like if JBE can veto a ridiculous map. Who might take LA-05 on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Clay Higgins
LA-04: Garret Graves
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson/Julia Letlow



Partisanship.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what a more fair GOP map might look like if JBE can veto a ridiculous map. Who might take LA-05 on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Clay Higgins
LA-04: Garret Graves
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson/Julia Letlow



Partisanship.

The 5th has a lot of territory currently in the 4th.

[I’m not Stu]

This is what a more fair GOP map might look like if JBE can veto a ridiculous map. Who might take LA-05 on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Clay Higgins
LA-04: Garret Graves
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson/Julia Letlow



Partisanship.

The 5th has a lot of territory currently in the 4th.

Yes, but I drew Mike Johnson (R-Bossier Parish) and Julia Letlow (R-Richland Parish) into the same district. Who might take the yellow district on my map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what a more fair GOP map might look like if JBE can veto a ridiculous map. Who might take LA-05 on my map?

LA-01: Steve Scalise
LA-02: TBD
LA-03: Clay Higgins
LA-04: Garret Graves
LA-05: OPEN
LA-06: Mike Johnson/Julia Letlow



Partisanship.

The 5th has a lot of territory currently in the 4th.

Yes, but I drew Mike Johnson (R-Bossier Parish) and Julia Letlow (R-Richland Parish) into the same district. Who might take the yellow district on my map?

There have been cases of incumbents moving in order to run in the district that has most of their territory.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at creating a state Senate fair map. I am almost completely sure I didn't include enough VRA districts but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interestingly my map ended with many competitive districts despite Louisiana being a very inelastic state



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f289c3a9-53e5-42c4-b1b1-26a0b68e92af

There should be 9 Safe D districts, 6 competitive districts and 24 Safe R districts.

Tipping point districts are district 7 (Trump+24, R+16; Located western Jefferson parish and northeastern St. Charles parish) and district 18 (covers south Baton Rouge and a tiny bit of Iberville parish)

[I’m not Stu]

I just updated my nonpartisan maps slightly.

[chalmetteowl]

My attempt at creating a state Senate fair map. I am almost completely sure I didn't include enough VRA districts but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interestingly my map ended with many competitive districts despite Louisiana being a very inelastic state



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f289c3a9-53e5-42c4-b1b1-26a0b68e92af

There should be 9 Safe D districts, 6 competitive districts and 24 Safe R districts.

Tipping point districts are district 7 (Trump+24, R+16; Located western Jefferson parish and northeastern St. Charles parish) and district 18 (covers south Baton Rouge and a tiny bit of Iberville parish)

After the veto session we just had, I’m wondering what’s the most Republican you can get the State House and State Senate… Republicans have a veto proof majority if they can keep all of their votes, but I wonder if new maps can stack it even further in our legislature, like 80-25 in the House and 30-9 in the Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at creating a state Senate fair map. I am almost completely sure I didn't include enough VRA districts but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interestingly my map ended with many competitive districts despite Louisiana being a very inelastic state



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f289c3a9-53e5-42c4-b1b1-26a0b68e92af

There should be 9 Safe D districts, 6 competitive districts and 24 Safe R districts.

Tipping point districts are district 7 (Trump+24, R+16; Located western Jefferson parish and northeastern St. Charles parish) and district 18 (covers south Baton Rouge and a tiny bit of Iberville parish)

After the veto session we just had, I’m wondering what’s the most Republican you can get the State House and State Senate… Republicans have a veto proof majority if they can keep all of their votes, but I wonder if new maps can stack it even further in our legislature, like 80-25 in the House and 30-9 in the Senate

Republicans are actually 2 seats short of a veto proof majority in the state House. However there are also 3 independents who caucus with neither party.

[Mr.Phips]

My attempt at creating a state Senate fair map. I am almost completely sure I didn't include enough VRA districts but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interestingly my map ended with many competitive districts despite Louisiana being a very inelastic state



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f289c3a9-53e5-42c4-b1b1-26a0b68e92af

There should be 9 Safe D districts, 6 competitive districts and 24 Safe R districts.

Tipping point districts are district 7 (Trump+24, R+16; Located western Jefferson parish and northeastern St. Charles parish) and district 18 (covers south Baton Rouge and a tiny bit of Iberville parish)

After the veto session we just had, I’m wondering what’s the most Republican you can get the State House and State Senate… Republicans have a veto proof majority if they can keep all of their votes, but I wonder if new maps can stack it even further in our legislature, like 80-25 in the House and 30-9 in the Senate

They would have to start messing with black majority districts to get Democrats that low.

[chalmetteowl]

My attempt at creating a state Senate fair map. I am almost completely sure I didn't include enough VRA districts but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interestingly my map ended with many competitive districts despite Louisiana being a very inelastic state



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f289c3a9-53e5-42c4-b1b1-26a0b68e92af

There should be 9 Safe D districts, 6 competitive districts and 24 Safe R districts.

Tipping point districts are district 7 (Trump+24, R+16; Located western Jefferson parish and northeastern St. Charles parish) and district 18 (covers south Baton Rouge and a tiny bit of Iberville parish)

After the veto session we just had, I’m wondering what’s the most Republican you can get the State House and State Senate… Republicans have a veto proof majority if they can keep all of their votes, but I wonder if new maps can stack it even further in our legislature, like 80-25 in the House and 30-9 in the Senate

They would have to start messing with black majority districts to get Democrats that low.

i'm not sure if those are still required or what the minimum number of such Louisiana needs to have

A VRA district is not legally required unless the relevant minority group can make up 50% or more of the district’s voting-age population (VAP).¹ More specifically, the question is whether the relevant minority can constitute more than 50% of the citizen voting-age population (CVAP).

the way i read it you could draw a bunch of districts that are 40% black and no such VRA district is legally required

[Alcibiades]

They would have to start messing with black majority districts to get Democrats that low.

i'm not sure if those are still required or what the minimum number of such Louisiana needs to have

Why would they not still be required?

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 6-district map of Louisiana.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

65/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
68/100 on the Compactness Index
75/100 on County Splitting
92/100 on the Minority Representation index (:))
1/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (lol who cares this is Deep South)

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Louisiana: 5R to 1D

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Louisiana (runoff): 5R to 1D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Louisiana: 5R to 1D

2019 Louisiana Attorney General Election: 5R to 1D

2019 Louisiana Gubernatorial Election: 5R to 1D

2019 Louisiana Gubernatorial Election (runoff): 4R to 2D

2019 Louisiana Lieutenant Governor Election: 5R to 1D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Louisiana: 5R to 1D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Louisiana: 5R to 1D


Opinions?

Also, I just gotta say damn is Livingston Parish Republican. How is it that big and that Republican at the same time?

[chalmetteowl]

here is an article from the Hayride about the politics behind the redistricting process

https://thehayride.com/2021/07/heres-what-larry-sabato-says-about-congressional-redistricting-in-louisiana/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

here is an article from the Hayride about the politics behind the redistricting process

https://thehayride.com/2021/07/heres-what-larry-sabato-says-about-congressional-redistricting-in-louisiana/

Thanks for sharing this with us. This was an interesting read.

[perpetual_cynic]

Unfortunately, I have not looked at the incumbents residence yet, but here is a map that includes a pretty solidly D district including New Orleans, and a district that includes Baton Rouge that would set up an incredibly competitive contest, Biden +1%.

[I’m not Stu]

4-2 map with 2020 data.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made 2 black majority districts.

Making a New-Orleans majority black district that doesn't touch Baton Rouge got a bit harder after the census, but making a Baton-Rouge based black district got a bit easier.

[I’m not Stu]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.

[Skill and Chance]

Nonpartisan map with only one VRA district. Such a map is possible because Democrats have just enough seats in the state legislature to allow Edwards to veto a bad map.

Would Edwards himself run in this LA-06?  He seems like the perfect candidate for it.

*He'd have to wait until 2024, but there's no way a Deep South Trump seat is flipping for Generic D in the 2022 midterm. 

[I’m not Stu]

Edwards could run in LA-06 on my 5-1 nonpartisan map. He got almost 60% of the vote in my LA-06 in 2019.