Rate 2019 November elections from 1-10 for D's

[Calthrina950]

Winning governors races is good but it hardly compensates for getting crushed in legislative races and getting blown out in other statewide races. The dems have lost 2 AG offices and a SOS office which collectively mean more than Beshear managing to win.

Denying the republicans a supermajority in the Louisiana house wasn’t some great achievement though, dems got crushed in house races, they lost 7 seats getting wiped out across small town Louisiana, they fact they only lost 7 instead of 9 seats doesn’t make it better. In Mississippi it was also a brutal wipeout, including the primary the dems lost 5 senate seats getting blown out in rural Mississippi, a large remnant of their downballot support which they had relied on in the Deep South basically disappeared.

And this cannot be ignored. In hindsight, 2019 will be viewed as another stage in the long process, which has been ongoing for more than seventy years now, by which the old Democratic dominance of the antebellum slave South has been destroyed, although it appears that in certain states (i.e. Texas, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia) they may be at least competitive in the future, though they will never be as dominant as they were prior to the Civil Rights Movement.

[smoltchanov]

Winning governors races is good but it hardly compensates for getting crushed in legislative races and getting blown out in other statewide races. The dems have lost 2 AG offices and a SOS office which collectively mean more than Beshear managing to win.

Denying the republicans a supermajority in the Louisiana house wasn’t some great achievement though, dems got crushed in house races, they lost 7 seats getting wiped out across small town Louisiana, they fact they only lost 7 instead of 9 seats doesn’t make it better. In Mississippi it was also a brutal wipeout, including the primary the dems lost 5 senate seats getting blown out in rural Mississippi, a large remnant of their downballot support which they had relied on in the Deep South basically disappeared.

I know all that. Still - they begin to addd support in suburban areas of Deep South. Madison, and even DeSoto counties in Mississippi, Jefferson and similar parishes in Louisiana. And they improve in urban areas, where they were competitivw (or - even dominant) before. Simply - Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky are much more rrural, then New York or California, so - collapse in rural areas, while nothing new, is very stingy. But still - results could easily be much worse for Democrats.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

5/10. The results were decidedly mixed, in my opinion. The only real successes which the Democrats had in Kentucky and Louisiana (albeit, the most significant ones) were to win the respective gubernatorial races. Aside from that, things did not go particularly well for them. They suffered further losses in the Louisiana legislature, although they were narrowly able to deny the Republicans a supermajority in the State House. Moreover, they lost all other statewide races besides the governorship by double-digit margins. In Kentucky, a similar story. Democrats lost both the Attorney General's office and the Secretary of State's office, and won the governorship by only about 5,000 votes. Thus, Kentucky and Louisiana are still well on their way to becoming staunchly Republican states at every level, though Beshear's result against Bevin, and Edwards' result against Rispone, suggests that a realignment might revive Democratic fortunes in those states, in the future.

Mississippi was an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats. They lost the governorship, lost their last remaining statewide office (the Attorney Generalship), and suffered net losses in the state legislature. That state is now firmly Republican at every level. In Virginia, Democrats took control of the General Assembly, but it is clear that the scandals of Northam, Fairfax, and Herring limited the extent of their gains. In New Jersey, Democrats lost seats, and continued their slide in South Jersey. Finally, Pennsylvania was mixed, with Democrats consolidating their grip over the Philadelphia suburbs, and losing yet more ground in the ancestrally Democratic counties around Pittsburgh.

This cycle, however, tells us little about 2020, aside from this: that the urban-rural trends we have been seeing will continue, and that the campaign against Trump will be an arduous one, that will require much effort on the Democrats' part.

The fact Democrats were able to pull out wins at all in KY and Louisiana is remarkable considering the age we live in. Losing KY-AG, KY-SOS and Ms-AG don’t negate that. If Democrats has retained those offices then it would have been an 11/10 night. That’s like saying that Republicans now winning more than the Governorships in MD and MA were abject failures

[Nyvin]

Winning governors races is good but it hardly compensates for getting crushed in legislative races and getting blown out in other statewide races. The dems have lost 2 AG offices and a SOS office which collectively mean more than Beshear managing to win.

Denying the republicans a supermajority in the Louisiana house wasn’t some great achievement though, dems got crushed in house races, they lost 7 seats getting wiped out across small town Louisiana, they fact they only lost 7 instead of 9 seats doesn’t make it better. In Mississippi it was also a brutal wipeout, including the primary the dems lost 5 senate seats getting blown out in rural Mississippi, a large remnant of their downballot support which they had relied on in the Deep South basically disappeared.

Governor offices (Even Kentucky's) is worth way way way more than AG and SOS offices.

Other than not having a Veto,  Kentucky Gov actually has a lot of executive power in the state.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The fact Democrats were able to pull out wins at all in KY and Louisiana is remarkable considering the age we live in. Losing KY-AG, KY-SOS and Ms-AG don’t negate that. If Democrats has retained those offices then it would have been an 11/10 night. That’s like saying that Republicans now winning more than the Governorships in MD and MA were abject failures

If Ds are able to consistently pick off Rs in high profile cases maybe they can negate these losses but beneath the Gov/Federal level the trends are definitely moving away from Dems here. As far as state-level races losing all statewide races below governor is not a place any party wants to be in. The worst thing that can happen is having a low-profile and therefore uncontroversial R candidate win election/re-election after you've had Rs cement control over the rest of the government. This is what's going to happen in Missouri next year.

And for the record - Gov races in 2018 were pretty disappointing. This is literally an argument for why the Senate gains for R were bad. Losing MT, WV and AZ was bad, in addition to other races that weren't as close!