Will California ever elect a Republican Governor?
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  Will California ever elect a Republican Governor?
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Author Topic: Will California ever elect a Republican Governor?  (Read 1929 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: November 17, 2019, 11:53:37 AM »

East coast states that are very liberal from time to time elect Republican governors.

Do you think there will ever be a day in the next couple decades where California would elect a Republican governor?

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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2019, 11:58:21 AM »

Ever is long time, LOL

But I doubt that it will happen in the near future, maybe after 2030
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2019, 11:59:41 AM »

Eventually down the line.

Nothing is ever constant in politics.

I think in some sort of off year election with a very unpopular dem president and a weak dem governor, and state level issues like housing costs, energy costs, homelessness,  etc out of control, the right GOP candidate could be competitive.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2019, 12:01:24 PM »

No, since Schwarzenegger was part of the Kennedy clan, he was elected
 No one else other than left wingers will be elected
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mgop
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2019, 12:12:41 PM »

if republicans go left from democrats, sure
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2019, 12:15:47 PM »

If the Republican Party decides to become more like the conservative parties of Europe and Canada, then sure.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2019, 12:20:03 PM »

Eventually down the line.

Nothing is ever constant in politics.

I think in some sort of off year election with a very unpopular dem president and a weak dem governor, and state level issues like housing costs, energy costs, homelessness,  etc out of control, the right GOP candidate could be competitive.

Agreed. This is exactly what happened in Maryland in 2014, and while it's a heavy lift, I think it's possible for these circumstances to eventually be repeated in California and New York.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2019, 12:22:23 PM »

There is no Hogan or Charlie Baker in Cali, the D have a supermajority in the state assembly,  whom other than Schwarzenegger is gonna get elected?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2019, 12:25:01 PM »

They might elect an independent leaning Republican like Poizner.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2019, 04:09:59 PM »

I don't see that in the next few cycles, but a Charlie Baker type Republican would probably defeat someone like Omar or Tlaib.

It's stunning, however, that 2018 was the first time Democrats won three gubernatorial elections in a row. Over the past 50 years, the governorship was mostly held by a Republican.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2019, 04:21:11 PM »

The problem is that Republicans in California have responded to losing ground by moving to the fringe. The minority leader in the state senate once said that abortion was to blame for the drought  and a lot of the candidates at varying levels are becoming more extreme. New England has a tradition of Republicans being moderate, but that same can't be said of California. Even when Republicans were winning California, a lot of their officeholders were quite conservative. Southern California is where much of extreme conservatism was formulated.

The state votes heavily Democratic, but it still has a great deal of hardcore conservatives who are quite vocal and would not prefer someone like them over a moderate Republican.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2019, 04:44:07 PM »

The problem is that Republicans in California have responded to losing ground by moving to the fringe. The minority leader in the state senate once said that abortion was to blame for the drought  and a lot of the candidates at varying levels are becoming more extreme. New England has a tradition of Republicans being moderate, but that same can't be said of California. Even when Republicans were winning California, a lot of their officeholders were quite conservative. Southern California is where much of extreme conservatism was formulated.

The state votes heavily Democratic, but it still has a great deal of hardcore conservatives who are quite vocal and would not prefer someone like them over a moderate Republican.

But even if California found a moderate popular republican like Charlie Baker for example, do you honestly think that would be enough to win
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 05:04:14 PM »

The problem is that Republicans in California have responded to losing ground by moving to the fringe. The minority leader in the state senate once said that abortion was to blame for the drought  and a lot of the candidates at varying levels are becoming more extreme. New England has a tradition of Republicans being moderate, but that same can't be said of California. Even when Republicans were winning California, a lot of their officeholders were quite conservative. Southern California is where much of extreme conservatism was formulated.

The state votes heavily Democratic, but it still has a great deal of hardcore conservatives who are quite vocal and would not prefer someone like them over a moderate Republican.

But even if California found a moderate popular republican like Charlie Baker for example, do you honestly think that would be enough to win

It's unlikely. Look at what happened to Steve Poizner
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2019, 05:12:36 PM »

Yes, probably following the Jindal -> JBE model the next time the economy crashes.  Anti-Silicon Valley populist R from SoCal takes the left's position on all the major social issues and runs on fixing the economy/housing crisis/stopping the fires/getting the power back on.   
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« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2019, 06:10:49 PM »

Sure :


- Liz Warren or Bernie wins in 2020 and go on an anti big tech crusade

- They get re-elected

- Their anti tech crusade causes the CA economy to crash

- A Charlie Baker Republican wins on in a 6 year itch backlash in 2026 over a Bernie /Warren Dem



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Computer89
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« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2019, 06:11:45 PM »

The problem is that Republicans in California have responded to losing ground by moving to the fringe. The minority leader in the state senate once said that abortion was to blame for the drought  and a lot of the candidates at varying levels are becoming more extreme. New England has a tradition of Republicans being moderate, but that same can't be said of California. Even when Republicans were winning California, a lot of their officeholders were quite conservative. Southern California is where much of extreme conservatism was formulated.

The state votes heavily Democratic, but it still has a great deal of hardcore conservatives who are quite vocal and would not prefer someone like them over a moderate Republican.

But even if California found a moderate popular republican like Charlie Baker for example, do you honestly think that would be enough to win

It's unlikely. Look at what happened to Steve Poizner

If Poizner ran in 2014 he wins and then gets re-elected . If Baker was running as a non incumbent in 2018 , he loses
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2019, 06:37:46 PM »

Ever? Sure, maybe someone like Hogan one day seems plausible. Other then that, probably not. It is possible that we see a GOP that reorients more towards Asians and Hispanics, but even then CA whites are just too liberal and the state's Asians and Hispanics are just too urban for a real conservative win (not even considering the substantial AA block).
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2019, 08:14:58 PM »

The problem is that Republicans in California have responded to losing ground by moving to the fringe. The minority leader in the state senate once said that abortion was to blame for the drought  and a lot of the candidates at varying levels are becoming more extreme. New England has a tradition of Republicans being moderate, but that same can't be said of California. Even when Republicans were winning California, a lot of their officeholders were quite conservative. Southern California is where much of extreme conservatism was formulated.

The state votes heavily Democratic, but it still has a great deal of hardcore conservatives who are quite vocal and would not prefer someone like them over a moderate Republican.

But even if California found a moderate popular republican like Charlie Baker for example, do you honestly think that would be enough to win
Steve Cooley was probably about the best Republicans could do for a statewide candidate, but he lost despite being D.A. of the largest county in the state. Unlike New England the statewide vote has become fairly inelastic.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2019, 09:36:45 PM »

I hate any poll that uses the term never / ever, as if California is destined to elect nothing but Democratic Governors until The Sun Burns Out.

Highly unlikely in the next decade or two barring a serious scandal and / or a grossly incompetent democratic candidate, combined with a top-notch bona fide moderate republican candidate.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2019, 11:51:43 PM »

Im sure they will eventually but under the current incarnation of the GOP no. Until they bring the margins down in the capital region, bay area and the coast they arent winning anytime soon.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2019, 04:17:24 PM »

 A Mexican-American could win running as a Republican if he/she plays to the state's politics and not the national party's. Also a celebrity could win too because people are goofy about that kind of thing.
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2019, 04:32:15 PM »

A Mexican-American could win running as a Republican if he/she plays to the state's politics and not the national party's. Also a celebrity could win too because people are goofy about that kind of thing.

Abel Maldonado's 2014 governor bid went poorly even though we have the top two system that he pushed hard for that in the hopes it would help him get elected.
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Woody
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2019, 06:10:59 AM »

Kevin Faulconer could defeat Newsom, if 2022 is a R wave year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2019, 05:14:04 PM »

No, it's a secular state and oil drilling is off limits on the coast
 It's for clean energy and climate change
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2019, 01:11:30 PM »

I mean, I wouldn't say that it'll never happen, but it probably won't happen any time soon.
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