CNN/Des Moines Register-IA: Buttigieg 25, Warren 16, Biden 15, Sanders 15

[Mr. Morden]

More here:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/11/16/rel4a_ia.pdf

fav/unfav % among Dems:
Buttigieg 72/16% for +56%
Warren 71/25% for +46%
Biden 64/33% for +31%
Klobuchar 53/23% for +30%
Sanders 61/35% for +26%
Booker 52/28% for +24%
Harris 55/31% for +24%
Yang 43/33% for +10%
Castro 35/35% for +/-0
Bennet 25/27% for -2%
Steyer 37/39% for -2%
Bullock 23/27% for -4%
Delaney 18/34% for -16%
Sestak 8/24% for -16%
Gabbard 25/45% for -20%
Williamson 11/47% for -36%
Bloomber 19/58% for -39%

That’s a lot of candidates underwater amongst their own party.  The 3rd tier candidates don’t seem to be wearing well.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRUc11fPAwk

[DINGO Joe]

HOW STUPID ARE THE PEOPLE OF IOWA!!!!!

LOL, this your first election?

It's a Trump quote.

Clearly Atlas’s memories aren’t quite as good as I first thought

Sorry, I just occasionally visit the 2020.

[ProudModerate2]

Pete taking Iowa from Warren (or Bernie) will hurt them big time.
But Biden not so much, as long as he doesn't show too far behind the others in both Iowa and NH.
Biden then has a significant chance of taking SC and probably Nevada, and then most of Super Tuesday. And if that happens, Biden may cruise to victory at the finish line (but not by a huge margin).

[Skill and Chance]

Pete taking Iowa from Warren (or Bernie) will hurt them big time.
But Biden not so much, as long as he doesn't show too far behind the others in both Iowa and NH.
Biden then has a significant chance of taking SC and probably Nevada, and then most of Super Tuesday. And if that happens, Biden may cruise to victory at the finish line (but not by a huge margin).

Yeah, I think a Mayor Pete win in Iowa would effectively sideline Warren immediately and then probably Bernie unless he took NH in landslide and then set up a Buttigieg vs. Biden endgame.  That would probably favor Biden.  Buttigieg would need to gain a lot of ground in the Southwest. 

[ProudModerate2]

Further proof that Pete is a top

-tier candidate

[DrScholl]

Even if he did win Iowa he would be finished come Super Tuesday because he can't win black voters.

[free my dawg]

Absolutely haram.

[rhg2052]

Also interesting, the broader support numbers:

1st & 2nd place combined:
Buttigieg - 39
Warren - 36
Biden - 28
Sanders - 28
Klobuchar - 12
Harris - 10
Booker - 6
Gabbard - 6
Steyer - 6
Yang - 5
Bloomberg - 3
Bennet - 1
Castro - 1
Williamson - 1

And total support (1st choice+2nd choice+actively considering):
Buttigieg - 68
Warren - 66
Biden - 58
Sanders - 54
Harris - 46
Klobuchar - 39
Booker - 36
Yang - 33
Steyer - 26
Castro - 18
Gabbard - 17
Bloomberg - 14
Bennet - 11
Bullock - 8
Delaney - 7
Williamson - 7
Sestak - 3

[Shadows]

He has basically taken away some of Warren's support. Further proof that Warren was never going to win. Her base is so fragile & 25-30% odd have decided they will definitely vote. That is like 5-6-7% at best. Warren could further fall & go to 10-12% too at the end.

Pete will be trying to take off some Biden & some more Warren supporters & of people who will poll less than 15%. At this rate, he can get 30-35% & get a huge victory. He is a clown of a candidate who is polling 1-2% among Hispanics & African Americans but he will be very strong in  Iowa.

[Shadows]

Also interesting, the broader support numbers:

1st & 2nd place combined:
Buttigieg - 39
Warren - 36
Biden - 28
Sanders - 28
Klobuchar - 12
Harris - 10
Booker - 6
Gabbard - 6
Steyer - 6
Yang - 5
Bloomberg - 3
Bennet - 1
Castro - 1
Williamson - 1

And total support (1st choice+2nd choice+actively considering):
Buttigieg - 68
Warren - 66
Biden - 58
Sanders - 54
Harris - 46
Klobuchar - 39
Booker - 36
Yang - 33
Steyer - 26
Castro - 18
Gabbard - 17
Bloomberg - 14
Bennet - 11
Bullock - 8
Delaney - 7
Williamson - 7
Sestak - 3

Incorrect & bad analysis. Only 2nd choice of candidates except the Top 4 matter. You can't add 1st & 2nd like that. Sanders supporters are what makes Wareen's 2nd choice so high because they overwhelmingly support Wareen but they are are most the hardcore & most decided in every poll so that 2nd choice won't move a lot.

Klobuchar 6% Harris 3% Booker 3% Steyer 3% Gabbard 3% Yang 3%
That is like 21% & huge. This goes to where ?

I think of the 6% between Yang & Gabbard, 4-5% can go to Bernie. I think Warren will do well among Harris supporters. I dont know about Klohuchar. That is like 6%.

[rhg2052]

Also interesting, the broader support numbers:

1st & 2nd place combined:
Buttigieg - 39
Warren - 36
Biden - 28
Sanders - 28
Klobuchar - 12
Harris - 10
Booker - 6
Gabbard - 6
Steyer - 6
Yang - 5
Bloomberg - 3
Bennet - 1
Castro - 1
Williamson - 1

And total support (1st choice+2nd choice+actively considering):
Buttigieg - 68
Warren - 66
Biden - 58
Sanders - 54
Harris - 46
Klobuchar - 39
Booker - 36
Yang - 33
Steyer - 26
Castro - 18
Gabbard - 17
Bloomberg - 14
Bennet - 11
Bullock - 8
Delaney - 7
Williamson - 7
Sestak - 3

Incorrect & bad analysis. Only 2nd choice of candidates except the Top 4 matter. You can't add 1st & 2nd like that. Sanders supporters are what makes Wareen's 2nd choice so high because they overwhelmingly support Wareen but they are are most the hardcore & most decided in every poll so that 2nd choice won't move a lot.

Klobuchar 6% Harris 3% Booker 3% Steyer 3% Gabbard 3% Yang 3%
That is like 21% & huge. This goes to where ?

I think of the 6% between Yang & Gabbard, 4-5% can go to Bernie. I think Warren will do well among Harris supporters. I dont know about Klohuchar. That is like 6%.

What analysis? I was literally just posting numbers directly from the release.

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by Selzer & Co on 2019-11-13

Summary:

Buttigieg:	25%
Warren:	16%
Biden:	15%
Sanders:	15%
Klobuchar:	6%
Other:	16%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was right, Buttigieg is the new frontrunner, he is a Vet and has Kander appeal. I endorse Buttigieg

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I was right, Buttigieg is the new frontrunner, he is a Vet and has Kander appeal. I endorse Buttigieg

Wow, even Cory Booker won't endorse himself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Somebody, anybody but Biden who is boring

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The rise must come before the fall.

You hope

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg is now taking all the former Sanders voters and they are voting for him instead of Sanders; as a result of, Sanders not endorsing filibuster reform and CRT packing and has a heart murmur

[Podgy the Bear]

The way this is going--Iowa 2020 will be as relevant as Iowa 1988 when Dick Gephardt finished first and Paul Simon (not the musician) finished second...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg is the youngest person left, that holds well for him

[Tender Branson]

The Sebastian Kurz / Jacinda Ardern effect.

IA voters want someone new and young. The anti-Trump.

[Pericles]

I doubt this lasts until people actually start voting. Warren's campaign seems to have the strongest fundamentals. While this is a good development for Buttigieg, it doesn't mean much for the final outcome unless he's getting these numbers in the final stretch before the caucuses.

[Eraserhead]

Buttigieg is now taking all the former Sanders voters and they are voting for him instead of Sanders; as a result of, Sanders not endorsing filibuster reform and CRT packing and has a heart murmur

Lay off the crack pipe, son.

[Tender Branson]

I am buying a lot of „Buttigieg wins IA and NH“ shares right now.

Austrian betting markets are still pretty clueless and behind time about his surge, so the odds are still 1:10 or something ...

[Tartarus Sauce]

Outstanding poll.