Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Frodo]

Thought it would be best if we had a separate thread for election results.

Here is one local news site for tracking election results live.

[Woody]

Rispone will win by 0.4.

[Tender Branson]

Politico:

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2019/louisiana/governor/

[libertpaulian]

Rispone will win by 0.4.

Congratulations on your re-election, Governor Bel Edwards!

[Horus]

Rispone will win by 0.4.

[soundchaser]

Congratulations on your re-election, Governor Bel Edwards!

Going to be pedantic for a second here, just to head off any further instances in this thread: the governor's given name is "John Bel"; his last name is "Edwards."

[MT Treasurer]

Usually, when a LA election is very close, the Democrat tends to win it (LA-SEN 1996, LA-SEN 2002, LA-GOV 2003 all spring to mind, and I know there are other examples too). Maybe tonight will be a different story (when was the last time a Republican won a close race in LA?), but I wouldn’t bet on it.

[libertpaulian]

Congratulations on your re-election, Governor Bel Edwards!

Going to be pedantic for a second here, just to head off any further instances in this thread: the governor's given name is "John Bel"; his last name is "Edwards."

Thanks!  I wondered if he chose to use his full name because his fellow Southerner John Edwards' scandals were still somewhat fresh in the national political memory, and he didn't want some voters to stupidly mix them up together.

[soundchaser]

Thanks!  I wondered if he chose to use his full name because his fellow Southerner John Edwards' scandals were still somewhat fresh in the national political memory, and he didn't want some voters to stupidly mix them up together.

As far as I can tell, he's always used it. It's not totally uncommon in Louisiana. Many of my dad's relatives go by their first and middle names.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Every site I can find at the moment that will have results:

https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/11/16/louisiana-gubernatorial-election-overview-and-live-results_898.html
https://data.thenewsstar.com/election-results/
https://electionarium.com/louisiana-governor-election-2019-predictions-results/
https://www.fox8live.com/politics/election-results/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-louisiana-general-election
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2019/louisiana/governor/
https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2019-11-16/resultsRace/Statewide
https://www.vox.com/2019/11/16/20963502/louisiana-election-results-live-edwards-rispone
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/louisiana/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason why it's so close is due to lower turnout, if it happened on the same day as KY and MS, Dems would have benefitted the most, but JBE will win

[DINGO Joe]

The only reason why it's so close is due to lower turnout, if it happened on the same day as KY and MS, Dems would have benefitted the most, but JBE will win

Yeah, I'm willing to bet big that Louisiana has higher turnout than either of those states.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

NYT results page is up:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/us/elections/results-louisiana-general-elections.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any word on turnout so far?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason why it's so close is due to lower turnout, if it happened on the same day as KY and MS, Dems would have benefitted the most, but JBE will win

Yeah, I'm willing to bet big that Louisiana has higher turnout than either of those states.

JBE was way ahead of Ripose in the beginning of Nov, there will be high turnout, but JBE lead has been cut in half

[icemanj]

Anyone have any parish benchmarks to look for in a close race?

[soundchaser]

Anyone have any parish benchmarks to look for in a close race?

DailyKos has three sets of benchmarks, based on different models, here.

[Adam Griffin]

Anyone have any parish benchmarks to look for in a close race?

Surely there are some in the Twitterverse somewhere.

However, if the polls are generally accurate/reflective of the expected margin and overarching trends (loss of D support in rural areas; suburban areas becoming more D) apply to at least some extent, then it's hard seeing JBE winning without Jefferson Parish being in the high 50s. I don't even know how possible it is, but EBR probably needs to be very close to 70%.

JBE keeping it close (single digits) in Lafayette would be a very good sign, while also holding onto Calcasieu. If JBE is losing Ouachita by more than 10, I'd be worried (by more than 20, it's probably over).

[MT Treasurer]

My benchmarks:

Jefferson Parish: Anything less than a 6-point win for JBE pretty much spells doom for him.

St. Tammany Parish: If JBE is held under 40% here, he probably loses narrowly.

Calcasieu Parish: If JBE is winning here or coming very close, it’s over.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do individual parishes have a reporting bias? For example by counting the early vote first.

[Xing]

I'd say Edwards probably wants at least 55% in Jefferson to feel good about his chances.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm going to do my best tonight to keep a spreadsheet by parish with somewhat live updates showing the swings compared to 2015, both in table & map form:

Map/Table, LA-Gov 2015-2019 County Swing Etc

I'll feed parish-by-parish data into the table and map every 15 minutes or so once results start flowing in reliably.

[walleye26]

Quick question on St Tammany-why is it so different from Jefferson? They are both fast growing suburban NOLA parishes-why is Jefferson trending D and STE not? Education level?

[Adam Griffin]

Quick question on St Tammany-why is it so different from Jefferson? They are both fast growing suburban NOLA parishes-why is Jefferson trending D and STE not? Education level?

Probably not the articulate answer it deserves, but there's a gigantic lake separating the two that hedges St Tammany from the urban/metro sprawl of NOLA. I'm sure that was also an attractive feature for the first waves of suburban growth to the area, which meant it attracted fundamentally different types of suburbanites than Jefferson (which I believe has also always had some natural black communities throughout it).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What time do the resuts start coming in?