2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71ffef7a-a5f1-4ba8-949f-33d2b59e5b9e, I drew this not long ago, it splits Lake and creates an 8-1 map. Walorski probably isn't too happy with this map, however

[S019]

You can get away with splitting Gary, and I expect R's to do it, but splitting Marion is much riskier. Your 1st or 2nd could be vulnerable in a wave or with a bad candidate. 8-1 is a much safer play than 9-0. Plus this ugly map probably leads to calls for reform, which the INGOP doesn't want, you can split Lake in much cleaner ways than you did, as well. 9-0 is very unlikely for all of these reasons.

[S019]

8-1 Indiana, even Donnelly won only one seat, most vulnerable seat is Baird at Trump+13 and Mrvan at Trump+14, but given Gary's hard R swing, those are both basically Safe R, shored up Spartz by shifting Carson's seat north to pick up southern HamCo and northern Marion. Everyone keeps their home except maybe Mrvan, but I didn't care for his home, given he was targeted for drawing out. Perhaps most importantly every GOP incumbent except for Pence (whose seat is a kind of inconvenient (for the INGOP) GOP sink) keeps their geographic base.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/12663fa6-81c9-49f3-a874-1f81e5aaaceb

[S019]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

General Assembly Republicans will unveil Indiana and U.S. House maps on Tuesday. Tom Davies of AP writes: The big question is whether they will focus on shoring up the suburban Indianapolis district that U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz narrowly kept in Republican hands last year to maintain their 7-2 control of Indiana’s U.S. House delegation. A more aggressive approach could see them try to carve up the northwestern Indiana district now held by U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan with the aim of ending Democrats’ decades long dominance there and gaining another GOP seat as Republicans look to regain U.S. House control in the 2022 midterm elections. Davies notes that due to population shifts, Spartz's 5th CD must shed 51,000 voters (goodbye Marion County), U.S. Rep. Andre Carson's 7th CD has 33,000 too many, while U.S. Reps. Larry Buchson's 8th CD and Greg Pence's 6th CD will need to pick up around 30,000 voters.

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

Do we know when specifically? Also keeping my fingers crossed that they don't crack Gary.

[S019]

If this wasn’t part of some shady deal with some D-trifecta state(s) (and I agree that these deals are highly unlikely in general), Republicans are even more incompetent than I thought they were, and I honestly didn’t think that was possible. They’re essentially letting themselves get gerrymandered into oblivion this cycle.

Watch them create some insanely ridiculous gerrymander in KS and TN while leaving MO/IN/TX/FL largely intact.

My impression has been that the GOP genuinely has zero idea of what kind of slaughter awaits them in IL/PA/NY/CA/NJ/etc.

I'd be very, very shocked if Republicans didn't pick up at least one seat in Florida (Murphy is very easy to get rid of even if you follow the amendment (literally just change the county that Seminole is paired with from Orange to Volusia)). As for New York, I think Democratic parochial concerns, such as concerns about splitting Albany or Buffalo make the bare maximum 22-4, and parochial concerns in Long Island may prevent Dems for taking a Long Island seat, bring us down to 21-5. CA is pretty close to maxed out for the Dems, Issa can probably get bluer by dropping Temecula/Murrieta and Kim, Steele, and Garcia are going to be in close races no matter what, in fact Democrats might actually be on the losing end in places like CA-07, where Matsui's seat likely has to expand, eating up blue territory and forcing Bera to be sent into redder territory. PA will be mostly fair, and Democrats need to lose at least one seat in anything other than a total gerrymander (bye Cartwright), Lamb's seat probably doesn't look too hot for them either, though it's theoretically salvageable depending on the Allegheny split. NJ will likely be 9-3, and Democrats have basically all but confirmed that they intend to throw Malinowski to the wolves, because they are close to maxed out in the state and 11-1 or 10-2 would be a risky proposition that could lead to a dummymander. Also in TX, what more can the Republicans do? Their current gerrymander almost fell apart for being too aggressive, at this point do they have any choice, but to cede seats to the Democrats? They're more than welcome to try to crack Austin if they'd like. Missouri and Tennessee seem more unpredictable, though Tennessee has a higher chance of cracking its "blue island" than Missouri does, I think both states ultimately do it, but there are good arguments for both sides, right now. IL will likely be 14-3, though trends for Dems will likely be awful in the Quad Cities/Rockford (currently held by Bustos, who is retiring) seat