2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[lfromnj]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

I think this map might be vulnerable to challenge on VRA grounds for over-packing black voters.

My Dem pack is only 40% black tho.  R's would just have to be clear it was done for partisan reasons, not racial.  Also, while the federal courts won't throw out all the requirements for vra districts, more conservative courts will be more likely to uphold districts like these which don't eliminate black districts.  Packing is easier to justify than cracking.  R's won't get away with destroying AL-7 or TX-34, but conservative judges might allow them to get away with higher minority percentages.

The thing is, it's likely some parties will prefer to play it safer for fear of getting their map stuck down and have a court draw a map that's quite unfavourable to them.

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

[lfromnj]

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

That's a pretty strong statement. As mentioned earlier, many Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to represent Lake County, and you don't have to oppose gerrymandering to find a Gary-Indianapolis district revolting and a step too far to actually create.

Refusing to draw that Gary indy district while the Ds draw a carbondale  to Champaign district in Illinois would just never happen.

[lfromnj]

Now, I still would not advise an 9R-0D given how risky it would be, but if one had to make as close as possible to one, this is how I'd do it.

This is not a 9R-0D map - this is a 8R-1Swing - but still this is the most R possible version of a clean, compact IN-01 in terms of PVI. And Andre Carson would have an uphill fight for re-election in any of the seats. (I suspect he'd run in the 7th, personally - almost half of it is in Marion County)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ccda80fe-646a-41a4-a4da-2501dc5b5b69

The Bloody 8th makes its glorious return!

Indeed.
I could see that seat being Dem in 2018. It has a heavily D slice of Marion, as well as Bloomington and Vigo County. Together those are almost half of the CD.
If pro-D trends in Marion continue and Ds gain in the rural areas, it is quite close of a district.

Actually most of Marions D trend comes from the north side, the south side is more exurban and actually WWC and trending R, Indiana 7th actually swung 4 points right.

[lfromnj]

Could a possible future IN-05 consist of the northern chunk of Marion County, Hamilton County, Madison County, Delaware County, and the Town of Zionsville (located in Boone County)?

As in a fair map?
Sure
The GOP has to put northern Indy in the indy sink now though as northern indy zoomed left in 2016.

[lfromnj]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

you...could. In theory.
I expect Greg Pence will take on a lot more Dem territory.

Trey Hollingsworth would be the one who would be hurt most, he has the least ties to the Indiana GOP.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/30/indiana-redistricting-2020-choose-your-own-adventure/

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/04/14/indianas-1st-congressional-district-a-sociocultural-and-political-analysis/

Btw I feel these 2 threads from RRH give some useful insight into the current and future makeup of the 1st district.

[lfromnj]

It says 98% is in for all counties, I think Lake has a few more votes but Biden so far has done pretty bad in Lake county Indiana.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/30/indiana-redistricting-2020-choose-your-own-adventure/

Even the relatively fair 3rd scenario map only has Biden leading by 7k votes while Clinton won it by 20k votes. At the very least the GOP might just draw that swing district and call it a day. The 5th district of course is pretty easy by just removing all but the richest parts of northern Marion.

[lfromnj]

There are still a few parts in north marion the GOP will scoop up, its the most red and the richest parts, the GOP is too addicted to donors.

[lfromnj]

Closer to 7-1-1. The NW Indiana district only looks like Biden +2.5 after putting the whole counties and giving extra 500 votes to Trump based on the 2 extra precincts.

Not great for incumbents although not a bad map. You did "rescue" the small pocket of the ultra rich parts of NE Marion County that is still a bit red.

[lfromnj]

What's a full district of Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke for the 1st, is it too large or too small?

Reason I ask is those are the 6 central time zone counties in northwest Indiana.

835,850 people per 2018 population estimates, 98,359 over the quota (737,491), so clearly too big.
Subtract Porter and add Pulaski though, you have 737,958 people, just perfect for a district.

You probably need to add Pulaski by 2020 estimates if I had to guess. Fairly good and reasonable district that the Indiana GOP can make

[lfromnj]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

This is something I find interesting about Indiana. In 2012 they understood the GOP had a solid partisan advantage and didn't see any need to mess up the lines and did a clean gerrymander  - sensible but biased. Interesting to see that it might happen again.

The state legislative lines were pretty ugly. Mitch daniels wanted a cleaner map congressionally though

[lfromnj]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin.  

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using whole counties.

[lfromnj]

Indiana Republicans have come with a new map for the state house


Actually the Democrats proposal, just felt like posting it

[lfromnj]

State house seems fair but seems like the state senate was gerrymandered. Examples include the brutal Fort Wayne chop and Lafayette and West Lafayette  being split.

[lfromnj]

The Congressional map could probably pass for a commission map were it not for splitting the Indianapolis suburbs in three different districts. It's obvious that Hamilton County concerns Republicans. Overall though and apart from that, a surprisingly sane and reasonable map.

You don't need to split the Indianapolis suburbs. Its just that this would create a seat no incumbent lives in but this seat would still be very much safe with weaker trends and being Trump +30.