2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[Coastal Elitist]

I recreated the gerrymander 538 did the best that I could and got
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e2e8b27-bf42-41a8-96a1-5fa27fa0fd3e

1 - R+6
2 - R+9
3 - R+9
4 - R+6
5 - R+9
6 - R+11
7- R+9
8 - R+12
9 - R+11

[Coastal Elitist]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

You can make a stronger 9-0 map check out the one I posted on page 2

[Coastal Elitist]

The problem with DRA for Indiana is they don't have 2016 President or anything more recent. If you're going off 2012-2016 composite you're not getting useful numbers. I whipped up this 8-1 map where I didn't split any counties except Marion so that way I could calculate 2020 numbers. So the populations for each district are only off by a few thousand.





This map doesn't even split Lake County and it gives Mrvan a seat that he'll have trouble winning as it trends away from dems. It also shores up Spartz into a district she shouldn't have problems winning as it only trended a little bit compared to her current one. I know this currently draws out some incumbents but it can be adjusted to fix that and should maintain similar numbers. If Republicans want to be more aggressive splitting Lake County should make the first even safer. Compared to the 2012-2016 composite numbers the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th all trended R by a few points.

[Coastal Elitist]

DRA finally added numbers for 2016 and I was able to estimate the 2016-2020 PVI for each. I also made a few adjustments to accommodate incumbents.



IN-1: R+5
IN-2: R+12
IN-3: R+15
IN-4: R+15
IN-5: R+14
IN-7: R+15
IN-8: R+19
IN-9: R+19

[Coastal Elitist]

Would cracking IN-01 require drawing Walorski out of IN-02?

No see my map above it satisfies all R incumbents

[Coastal Elitist]

Would cracking IN-01 require drawing Walorski out of IN-02?

No see my map above it satisfies all R incumbents

I wonder if the INGOP is willing to draw out Walorski to make an even more extreme map.

That's unnecessary. You can split Lake County and still keep Waloriski happy. Actually, in my map Walorski moves to the third and Banks moves to the second. 1 and 2 in this map would be safe with 2020 numbers. https://davesredistricting.org/join/49be7452-47d4-4a53-b273-60f6914084b1

[Coastal Elitist]

Splitting Indianapolis like that would lead to lawsuits up the ass. A 8-1 is more likely than 9-0.

I think they'll go 8-1 but what exactly would you sue over? Carson's seat is not protected by the VRA as the current version is less than 30% black.