Indiana
Indiana’s redistricting has recently drawn discussion both with the retirement of Visclosky and the state’s newfound strong GOP lean. Perhaps most interesting is that Indiana is home to one of three states that have clear potential safe D seats that can be turned into GOP ones with a smart mapper. Indiana however is the most uncertain, whereas Missouri and Tennessee’s fate is far more linear.
Link to 2010 Atlas DiscussionRedistricting HistoryIt’s hard to imagine that Indiana once had democratic legislative majorities. Indiana shares many similarities with her southern neighbors, and it’s always remarked that the state was settled northwards from the river. The democrats, like many a chamber back before Obama, could still win elections on increasingly red turf. In 2000 the state house was Blue, the State senate had been red for decades, and the governor was O’Bannon (Dem). It was time for Indiana to lose a congressional seat and the dems new exactly how to propose a plan that gave them the maximum possible opportunity. The blood red suburbs were packed hard into two GOP seats, and then the rest of the state was divided up so that democrats could gain a delegation majority. It looks funny in hindsight but IN07 was drawn so as to maximize dem potential: Marion was still a pink county overall, and Dems could not be expected to win a fair Indianapolis square seat.
Indiana Congressional Districts from 2000 to 2010, map from Wikipedia
The results for the map from the Democratic drawer’s perspective were mixed but expected for a decade of ferment. From 2000 to 2006 the democrats lost seats, losing the South Bend IN02 in 2002 and the River-straddling IN09 in 2004. Indiana however was one of the democrats key target states in 2006. IN02 and IN09 flipped right back to blue and the bloody 8th joined on making Indiana’s delegation 5-4 D. All 5 held on in 2008 when Obama scored his shock win, permanently tainting all Indiana DRA data for years to come. Things however were far rosier for the Republicans than an Obama win and a 5-4 delegation presented. Mitch Daniels won reelection comfortably in 2008, the democrats elected had to ideologically bend away from the mainstream to appeal in their districts, and despite the fiscal collapse dems had failed to make notable gains in the state legislature. This all therefore came to a head in 2010 when the GOP swept the southern-aligned 8th and 9th into their fold, captured both chambers with stunning margins, and came 2% away from getting the 2nd as well. Indiana was back in her GOP home.
Indiana Congressional Districts since 2010, map from Wikipedia
Congressional redistricting in 2010 was a rather quiet affair, even though the GOP held all the leavers of power. The crazy stuff can at the state legislative level, there the GOP moved to use to their new rural advantages to lock in majorities for the next decade. Mitch Daniels said he wouldn’t sign off on anything too outlandish and the GOP legislators listened. Counties were kept mostly whole, but the lines still went out of their way to protect the incumbents. The suburban packs were unloaded into every possible GOP to distribute the red voters efficiently. The southern river counties that may vote conserva-dem were carved up, and nearby Bloomington was sunk. Donnelly’s 2010 win showed that the 2nd needed to be readjusted drastically, so the GOP pulled out some of the blue coastal counties and swapped them for red rurals. While this seat still voted for Obama, Donnelly would retire, go statewide, and in effect concede the district to a victorious Republican party.
Since 2011 RedistrictingThere isn’t really much to say about Indiana because the GOP map was drawn to be uncompetitive. IN02 has remained a Democratic reach seat since their 2012 loss, but they never have been able to crack the code. The republicans knew what they were doing with Walorski’s eventual district. When Young moved to run for senate in 2016, his replacement was carpetbagger “Tennessee” Trey Hollingsworth. The man carpet-bombed the seat with personal wealth and won the GOP primary. Since then Trey has been a consistent underperformer, but not by as much to give the Democrats a serious opening. The most interesting case has perhaps been IN05, which was last decade a GOP pack. The legislature removed some of its more rural bits to buttress other seats, and gave in (at the time) the wealthy red northern Marion communities. Well, those flipped blue, Hamilton zoomed left, and now the seat is competitive. Donnelley carried the seat in 2018, even in defeat, and Brooks’s retirement gives the Democrats an opening. With redistricting next cycle though, this opening in the 5th is likely to disappear just as fast as it appeared.
2021How far is the GOP willing to go in 2021? The map can change a lot, or a little, depending on the desires of those in control. Just like in Ohio, the 2010 mappers had a cadre that were all in favor of cracking their big city, but these opinions were wisely sidelined.
The first, most obvious decisions that are going to occur no matter what happens is the reinforcement of 5 and 9. To make both of them absolutely safe, red rurals need to be grabbed and bluer bits like Bloomington and northern Indianapolis will be dropped at least in part. If the dems pick up the 5th the GOP will probably be more aggressive in their reclamation efforts than if the Republicans hold the seat. Ironically, returning the 9th to a Riverside seat might make it safer R whereas in 2000 it was swing.
2020 Least Change style plan in regards to the Lakeshore, overall D+8 CPVI presently
With that out of the way, all eyes turn towards the shrinking IN01. Three broad stroked potential plans exist in regards to the lakeshore seat. The first plan is to leave the district rather similar to what exists now, taking in Lake, Porter, and as much of LaPorte as possible. This style of plan makes the most sense on a ‘least change’ style map, or one that continues to leave counties mostly whole. After all, reinforcing 5 and 9 can be done without carving counties to bits. The second plan fortifies the entire region by transforming the 1st into a ‘snake-by-the-lake’ that goes into South Bend. Such a plan is prefaced on the assumption that Walorski would be fine dropping the city as long as she keeps the suburbs. The advantages of this plan are that the first gets bluer and drops the red rural towns and marginal suburbs. This packs all the areas in the region that still could get more blue into one seat, allowing her neighbors to fortify the 5th far easier. I have also noted that this could give an outlet for the ambitious South Bend democratic community, who currently lack said outlet and end up, I don’t know, running for president.
2020 'Snake-by-the-Lake' Style Plan, overall D+13 CPVI presently
The final plan is to carve up the 1st and produce and new, 8-1 map. The first is shrinking, in large part thanks to Gary’s continuing desire to be the King of the dead Post-Industrial cities. Through cleaver lines the GOP can carve up the region into 3 or 4 red districts, and nobody would be too sad since IN01 is getting a new rep next year. There are downsides to this of course, communities of interest and incumbent desires will have to go out the window in favor of partisanship. Speaking of incumbent desires, nobody on the GOP side may even want to have Gary in their seat and just prefer to leave the 1st as a proverbial ‘toxic waste dump’ for minority and poor democrats.
What’s left to decideWhomever replaces Visclosky in IN01 and Brooks in IN05 are no real concern to those who will hold the pen in 2021. IN01’s fate rests in others hands, not that of it’s potential incumbent. IN05, no matter if it elects a democrat or republican, is going to drop its slice of the city and pick up redder and redder turf. If the seat does elect a dem then maybe the Republicans will be more aggressive in drawing away the blue parts than if the GOP keeps the seat red.
Instead, the big question is whether or not the Presidential majority is just as large in 2020 as it was in 2016. Such a test of partisanship would probably decide whether or not carving up the first is even safely possible. Now, why would trump do worse in a midwestern WWC state? Well, when you are running not as the incumbent, you get a home-state boost in your VP’s home state. This has been proven statistically again and again, thought the boost is usually no more than 2%. Such a boost dissipates somewhat when running for reelection. There is also the outside possibilities surrounding the executive branch that could potentially remake Indiana’s 2020 stability. If Trump dumps Pence for, I don’t know, Haley, there will be a backlash in turnout in the Hoosier state. Such a move won’t flip Indiana evangelicals to Democrats, but may convince them to sit this one out. There also exists the possibility that Trump gets removed from office. In such a scenario it would be President Pence who is running for reelection, and would likely carry Indiana with a larger majority than in 2016. Such numbers would likely be just as useful as Obama’s ’08 numbers in determining Indiana’s baseline partisanship, but a Hoosier landslide would give Republican mappers more wiggle room to flex their redistricting muscles. Then there's the chance of Buttegieg getting the Dem nomination and giving Indiana a Dem home-state effect....
