2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is an interesting map I made. This map is a Republican gerrymander where instead of making one of the Dem districts Safe R, instead I tried to make both tossup districts.

I also tried to make the districts look relatively normal and not absolutely disgusting so that the general public does not complain. The biggest part of this is keeping Lake County whole even if you are going to try to make that district a tossup.

Anyways here is the map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/263e4e67-8dbf-4e0e-9c98-6ee3f394bda9

IN-01: D+1; 52D-48R
IN-02: R+10; 42D-58R
IN-03: R+13; 39D-61R
IN-04: R+10; 41D-59R
IN-05: R+12; 40D-60R
IN-06: R+9; 42D-58R
IN-07: R+2; 50D-50R
IN-08: R+14; 38D-62R
IN-09: R+14; 38D-62R

Surprisingly the Indianapolis seat is more winnable for Republicans than the Gary seat, though I suppose the former is trending D while the latter is trending R?

[Former President tack50]

Could a possible future IN-05 consist of the northern chunk of Marion County, Hamilton County, Madison County, Delaware County, and the Town of Zionsville (located in Boone County)?

As in a fair map?
Sure
The GOP has to put northern Indy in the indy sink now though as northern indy zoomed left in 2016.

So basically to save IN-05 long term the orientation basically changes so northern Indianapolis goes into the Dem sink while Southern Indianapolis (which is trending slower and is more republican) goes into one of the R districts?

[Former President tack50]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is a D Gerrymander of Indiana:



IN-01: D+6
IN-02: R+2
IN-03: R+19
IN-04: R+19
IN-05: D+3
IN-06: R+21
IN-07: D+6
IN-08: R+12
IN-09: R+22

As for that ugly elongated 8th district; after drawing the Dem districts; I wanted a district that at least went for Obama in 2008 and that was the best I could do. I was only capable of getting it to McCain+0.2 in 2008 (I am sure with a couple precinct swaps you could get it to vote Obama) but of course Safe R now. But maybe if the #populists return it might no longer be safe so you never know. It is still the least Republican of the Republican seats that I drew.

[Former President tack50]

Following from lfromnj, here is my take on a State Senate map



Per DRA, there are 33 Republican districts, 11 Democratic districts and 6 competitive ones. There are 5 majority minority districts. 3 black districts in Indianapolis (48, 46 and 45% black), 1 Hispanic opportunity/plurality district near Chicago (38% hispanic, 38% white, 20% black) and 1 black district in Gary (51% black).

The tipping point districts are districts 28 and 29. They are both very similar, at around R+14 and cover 2 halves of Hamilton County (Carmel and Fishers respectively)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6fa854f7-7595-45d2-9dbd-d2c2d2e1c388

[Former President tack50]

I created this map as a fair map though idk how fair it is exactly. Even with 2018-Senate numbers it ends up as a 7-2



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1777ebb1-d716-48d8-a498-1de4822981d6

IN-01 (Gary / coast): Clinton+12, D+7
IN-02 (South Bend area): Trump+24, R+12
IN-03 (Fort Wayne area): Trump+34, R+17
IN-04 (rural northwest Indiana, Terre Haute): Trump+34, R+15
IN-05 (North Indianapolis suburbs): Trump+27, R+17
IN-06 (southeast Indiana, Louisville suburbs): Trump+34, R+15
IN-07 (Indianapolis): Clinton+46, D+17
IN-08 (southwest Indiana): Trump+38, R+17
IN-09 (South Indianapolis suburbs, Bloomington): Trump+27, R+14