2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[Nyvin]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

KY is really 0/100 due to the nature of the state constitution, which obliges the creation of a district entirely in Louisville should the numbers exist for it.

Do they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

Yes, barely in the State House, easily in the Senate (it's 60% in each chamber).

But all that would do is put it on as a ballot question in the next legislative election (Nov 2020).

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e96cd576-fde1-4a28-8d77-a749b19b9e3f
1 - R+8
2 - R+8
3 - R+8
4 - R+11
5 - R+15
6 - R+15
7 - D+16
8 - R+15
9 - R+18

It isn't even that hard to draw a 8-1 that's actually secure and isn't utterly grotesque.

I mean, that northwest corner is pretty grotesque there...

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1437809618198093827

They drew 7-2, IN-1 not cracked.

[Nyvin]

For all the focus on IN-01, the biggest change from the map seems to be centered on the South of the state. The current IN-09 is practically dismantled.

It's mostly an incumbent protection map.  They also shored up IN-5 quite heavily and made IN-6 more Democratic (it was previously almost an R vote sink).

Even IN-7 moves a few points left.

[Nyvin]

If this wasn’t part of some shady deal with some D-trifecta state(s) (and I agree that these deals are highly unlikely in general), Republicans are even more incompetent than I thought they were, and I honestly didn’t think that was possible. They’re essentially letting themselves get gerrymandered into oblivion this cycle.

Watch them create some insanely ridiculous gerrymander in KS and TN while leaving MO/IN/TX/FL largely intact.

My impression has been that the GOP genuinely has zero idea of what kind of slaughter awaits them in IL/PA/NY/CA/NJ/etc.

If only Senate Republicans would get on board with a gerrymandering ban and mandated independent commissions.

There are obvious constitutional reasons to oppose such a bill, not just partisan reasons. 

What?!?