2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

That's a pretty strong statement. As mentioned earlier, many Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to represent Lake County, and you don't have to oppose gerrymandering to find a Gary-Indianapolis district revolting and a step too far to actually create.

We might even see GOP efforts to pack IN-01 as much as possible while only splitting one county (Definitely not Lake).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

KY is really 0/100 due to the nature of the state constitution, which obliges the creation of a district entirely in Louisville should the numbers exist for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is anyone on this thread interested in Indiana local government redistricting?  In 2013, my students and I created a website showing that nearly all county councils were out of compliance. (I've not been on this site long enough to post links but you can find it at indianalocalredistricting dot com/counties)
The same was true for most school boards with single member electoral districts

Welcome to the forum!
Yes I would be up for that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67f8d84a-8291-49b5-b1b2-24dedd78c824
non-partisan IN map based off of 2016 block groups

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67f8d84a-8291-49b5-b1b2-24dedd78c824
non-partisan IN map based off of 2016 block groups

Wow I didn't realize how badly NW IN was losing population, that district is expanding rapidly into rural IN, making it easier to crack.  Also at the very least the Marion district is moving north.  Dems should push for a map that gives R incumbents super safe and desirable seats in exchange for keeping 2 Dem seats.  Dems have little leverage however.

For what its worth the area of current IN-01 is actually barely behind the state in population trends.
I just took the district south to avoid any county splits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The rural counties the 1st took on could still be added with a GOPmander of sorts in mind - allowing for an upset win in a case where Trumpist trends continue in a good GOP year. They only total up to 73k however.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you really want to hurt the Ds, remove Porter County, and make it compose of Lake, Newton, Benton, Warren, Jasper, White, Pulaski, Starke, Fulton, Miami, Cass, and Carroll counties. Such a district would be only D+1.53 and 58.9-40 Obama and Clinton by less than 6,000 votes in 2016.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2a68a95a-3de1-4772-9c4e-1b0dffe11d26
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e366b725-5c94-47f4-b0c5-e8f1fac32ca5
an Indiana map targetting IN-01, fortifying IN-05, and the like. IN-02 moves left but it would remain challenging. But it wouldn't be as solid as it used to.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

7 safe R, 1 lean R, 1 safe D
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c6524a5e-27f8-47c5-8b4f-ff159dd9e1fc

I...doubt the GOP will draw a Greensburg-to-Gary district. It's so massively ugly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e7fba6d2-fd65-40bc-8cf5-f276be831b64
I drew this IN R gerrymander.
This de-packs the 1st and reduces the D PVI but not by enough to imperil Jackie Walorski, who doubtless would know she would not safe in a seat with a PVI below R+7. Other than that the main things are the 5th pulling out into Marion and there are 5 whole county CDs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71ffef7a-a5f1-4ba8-949f-33d2b59e5b9e, I drew this not long ago, it splits Lake and creates an 8-1 map. Walorski probably isn't too happy with this map, however

This map is a perfect demonstration as to why I don't think they'll crack Lake County. 1) It risks playing with fire especially since IN is swingy and there is no guarantee they'll put up Trump-tier numbers in the state forever, 2) parochial GOP incumbent interests will be a major force, 3) You can't even make every seat in the northern part of the state solid R unless you tear apart loads of counties (on this map a total of 47 counties are split at least once and that doesn't even make all the seats Solid R), 4) it looks extremely ugly, 5) No GOPer will want to represent Gary, 6) all of the above would actually look very bad to the broader public and risk litigation, and 7) it is possible to make the 1st marginal without seriously jeopardizing any of the R districts.
Just keep the 2nd at R+7 or more, respect county lines, keep things superficially nice-looking, and you'll be fine. Oh, and pull the 5th out of Marion.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, I doubt the IN GOP will actually remove IN-01, as it is still pretty heavily D. As my map did, they could weaken it to some degree but make it so that Mrvan could lose in a heavy R year. 7-2 is probably stable enough, if they really wanted to push their luck they could do 8-1, but 9-0 is probably a nonstarter.

They could just stick him in an D+1 or so district and hope he loses to a strong R challenger in the next wave. That wouldn't be a bad idea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, I doubt the IN GOP will actually remove IN-01, as it is still pretty heavily D. As my map did, they could weaken it to some degree but make it so that Mrvan could lose in a heavy R year. 7-2 is probably stable enough, if they really wanted to push their luck they could do 8-1, but 9-0 is probably a nonstarter.

They could just stick him in an D+1 or so district and hope he loses to a strong R challenger in the next wave. That wouldn't be a bad idea.

why not 8-1?  If 9-0 is plausible, 8-1 is easy.

But I don't agree with either statement.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now, I still would not advise an 9R-0D given how risky it would be, but if one had to make as close as possible to one, this is how I'd do it.

This is not a 9R-0D map - this is a 8R-1Swing - but still this is the most R possible version of a clean, compact IN-01 in terms of PVI. And Andre Carson would have an uphill fight for re-election in any of the seats. (I suspect he'd run in the 7th, personally - almost half of it is in Marion County)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ccda80fe-646a-41a4-a4da-2501dc5b5b69

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now, I still would not advise an 9R-0D given how risky it would be, but if one had to make as close as possible to one, this is how I'd do it.

This is not a 9R-0D map - this is a 8R-1Swing - but still this is the most R possible version of a clean, compact IN-01 in terms of PVI. And Andre Carson would have an uphill fight for re-election in any of the seats. (I suspect he'd run in the 7th, personally - almost half of it is in Marion County)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ccda80fe-646a-41a4-a4da-2501dc5b5b69

The Bloody 8th makes its glorious return!

Indeed.
I could see that seat being Dem in 2018. It has a heavily D slice of Marion, as well as Bloomington and Vigo County. Together those are almost half of the CD.
If pro-D trends in Marion continue and Ds gain in the rural areas, it is quite close of a district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

you...could. In theory.
I expect Greg Pence will take on a lot more Dem territory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

you...could. In theory.
I expect Greg Pence will take on a lot more Dem territory.

Trey Hollingsworth would be the one who would be hurt most, he has the least ties to the Indiana GOP.

fair point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2d96c7e7-39bd-40d6-833e-bae1c3acbf2d
I drew this map up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now - looking at it, there is only one legal concern that is worth mentioning - that AAs in Marion County are divided into 4 seats. Most likely, if this is held to be strong enough of a problem that a revision is needed, the solution is to rejigg things so that 6 loses almost all non-black, Dem friendly areas, in return for picking up more AA precincts. But this will make the map messier and worse looking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2d96c7e7-39bd-40d6-833e-bae1c3acbf2d
I drew this map up.

Those R+5 PVIs do not look comfortable for the Republicans at all. Andre Carson of course would be a non-factor, but very risky still. Those seats would have a good chance of voting for Biden this year, e.g.

These are risks inherent in cracking Indianapolis. *If* you split it up, this is the best way to do it.
Also important to note that the R+5 seats will remain R the majority of the time, and there are only 2 of them. Every other R seat is at least mostly safe. So this is a net gain of one for most of the decade - net gain for Rs in my book.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

you could unpack IN-6.  R+18 wastes a lot of votes.  Also, that IN-7 would've been very close this year, it is less red than the current IN-5

IN-6 is the most unshakably R district in the state. It's malpractice to not use it in a cracking of Indy Dem votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My relatively clean 7R-2D Map

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1d7c62d4-ec19-4d97-a757-f25f05ae7bb7

Personally I would rotate 8, 4, and 5 to reduce the size of 8's tail. But it's not a bad map if one's aimed at non-partisan lines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's a full district of Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke for the 1st, is it too large or too small?

Reason I ask is those are the 6 central time zone counties in northwest Indiana.

835,850 people per 2018 population estimates, 98,359 over the quota (737,491), so clearly too big.
Subtract Porter and add Pulaski though, you have 737,958 people, just perfect for a district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I created this map as a fair map though idk how fair it is exactly. Even with 2018-Senate numbers it ends up as a 7-2



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1777ebb1-d716-48d8-a498-1de4822981d6

IN-01 (Gary / coast): Clinton+12, D+7
IN-02 (South Bend area): Trump+24, R+12
IN-03 (Fort Wayne area): Trump+34, R+17
IN-04 (rural northwest Indiana, Terre Haute): Trump+34, R+15
IN-05 (North Indianapolis suburbs): Trump+27, R+17
IN-06 (southeast Indiana, Louisville suburbs): Trump+34, R+15
IN-07 (Indianapolis): Clinton+46, D+17
IN-08 (southwest Indiana): Trump+38, R+17
IN-09 (South Indianapolis suburbs, Bloomington): Trump+27, R+14

This works well as a fair-nonpartisan map. For a fair-proportional you probably need to get Bloomington in a Dem district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Effort at a fair-proportional IN map. IN-01 has been weakened in its Dem lean, with IN-02 losing most of its most Rep territory. Under these lines Walorski likely loses in 2018. IN-09 now connects Dem-leaning and Dem-trending territory in Indianapolis with Bloomington and is Dem-leaning outright.
It is imperfect however. I will try to do something better while still respecting compactness, something I placed as among my highest concerns when making this map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ad23910-9898-4ff7-b31a-f380446361b7