2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[I’m not Stu]

Yeah, I doubt the IN GOP will actually remove IN-01, as it is still pretty heavily D. As my map did, they could weaken it to some degree but make it so that Mrvan could lose in a heavy R year. 7-2 is probably stable enough, if they really wanted to push their luck they could do 8-1, but 9-0 is probably a nonstarter.

They could just stick him in an D+1 or so district and hope he loses to a strong R challenger in the next wave. That wouldn't be a bad idea.

why not 8-1?  If 9-0 is plausible, 8-1 is easy.

But I don't agree with either statement.

Indiana is Trump+19, you can make a map where every district is at least double digits for Trump.  Risky, but it would likely end up working.  

This applies to everyone who is drawing maps for states without an unbiased citizen-led commission: Partisanship is not the only concern when drawing districts, and is sometimes not the most important. Incumbents or legislative allies can and will level demands that oftentimes cannot be ignored without making enemies out of some faction of your caucus, who in time may enact their revenge. Mappers may have geographic or cultural biases and draw maps to those groups favor - as seen in Louisiana 2010 and the Northern-favoring state GOP leadership. Sometimes states fear outside action, be that citizen referendum or the DOJ back before Shelby, and maybe once again if a Biden trifecta creates modern section 4 guidelines for our data driven era.

The only real times when partisanship is the only factor in redistricting is when the mappers fear for their political lives - best seen in the last maps Georgia and Texas democrats put into law.

I know there are other concerns.  My point is, 9=0 is mathematically possible, so the GOP should try for 8-1 or at the very least 7-1-1. But 8-1 is possible where the only R seat that's competitive is IN-1, incumbent homes staying  their districts, and it isn't extremely ugly.  Also, Pete Visclosky is retiring, so in 2022 Republicans would be running against a freshman dem (Frank Mrvan), who should be easier to defeat than an entrenched incumbent.  Especially if IN-1 trends R again in 2020, the seat is gone.  

Updated my map. Every seat at least R+11. My map would likely hold up with no risk of backfiring. No seat is R+10 or less.

1: R+11, 2: R+11, 3: R+11, 4:R+11, 5: R+12, 6: R+20, 7: R+30, 8: R+24, 9: R+14

Impressive, but draws incumbents out of their districts.  An 8-1 would be safer, cleaner, and satisfy incumbents.

9-0 is doable. I don't care about satisfying incumbents. See my California maps.

Levin is drawn out (replaced by Democratic Escondido seat):



Porter is drawn out (OC gets fewer seats due to fewer county splits and Irvine is moved into a coastal seat); Lowenthal is drawn out but might retire anyway (Lowenthal's seat loses Long Beach and Lakewood, turning it into a coastal OC Asian seat with Huntington Beach):



Garamendi is drawn out:

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah, I doubt the IN GOP will actually remove IN-01, as it is still pretty heavily D. As my map did, they could weaken it to some degree but make it so that Mrvan could lose in a heavy R year. 7-2 is probably stable enough, if they really wanted to push their luck they could do 8-1, but 9-0 is probably a nonstarter.

They could just stick him in an D+1 or so district and hope he loses to a strong R challenger in the next wave. That wouldn't be a bad idea.

why not 8-1?  If 9-0 is plausible, 8-1 is easy.

But I don't agree with either statement.

Indiana is Trump+19, you can make a map where every district is at least double digits for Trump.  Risky, but it would likely end up working.  

This applies to everyone who is drawing maps for states without an unbiased citizen-led commission: Partisanship is not the only concern when drawing districts, and is sometimes not the most important. Incumbents or legislative allies can and will level demands that oftentimes cannot be ignored without making enemies out of some faction of your caucus, who in time may enact their revenge. Mappers may have geographic or cultural biases and draw maps to those groups favor - as seen in Louisiana 2010 and the Northern-favoring state GOP leadership. Sometimes states fear outside action, be that citizen referendum or the DOJ back before Shelby, and maybe once again if a Biden trifecta creates modern section 4 guidelines for our data driven era.

The only real times when partisanship is the only factor in redistricting is when the mappers fear for their political lives - best seen in the last maps Georgia and Texas democrats put into law.

I know there are other concerns.  My point is, 9=0 is mathematically possible, so the GOP should try for 8-1 or at the very least 7-1-1. But 8-1 is possible where the only R seat that's competitive is IN-1, incumbent homes staying  their districts, and it isn't extremely ugly.  Also, Pete Visclosky is retiring, so in 2022 Republicans would be running against a freshman dem (Frank Mrvan), who should be easier to defeat than an entrenched incumbent.  Especially if IN-1 trends R again in 2020, the seat is gone.  

Updated my map. Every seat at least R+11. My map would likely hold up with no risk of backfiring. No seat is R+10 or less.

1: R+11, 2: R+11, 3: R+11, 4:R+11, 5: R+12, 6: R+20, 7: R+30, 8: R+24, 9: R+14

Impressive, but draws incumbents out of their districts.  An 8-1 would be safer, cleaner, and satisfy incumbents.

9-0 is doable. I don't care about incumbent protection. See my California maps.

Levin is drawn out (replaced by Democratic Escondido seat); Issa/Campa-Najjar also drawn out (replaced by OC south hills, Oceanside, and wine country seat):



Porter is drawn out (OC gets fewer seats due to fewer county splits and Irvine is moved into a coastal seat); Lowenthal is drawn out but might retire anyway (Lowenthal's seat loses Long Beach and Lakewood, turning it into a coastal OC Asian seat with Huntington Beach):



Garamendi is drawn out:

CA is drawn by an independent commission.  IN is drawn by the legislature, they will protect Republican incumbents. 

[I’m not Stu]

Yeah, I doubt the IN GOP will actually remove IN-01, as it is still pretty heavily D. As my map did, they could weaken it to some degree but make it so that Mrvan could lose in a heavy R year. 7-2 is probably stable enough, if they really wanted to push their luck they could do 8-1, but 9-0 is probably a nonstarter.

They could just stick him in an D+1 or so district and hope he loses to a strong R challenger in the next wave. That wouldn't be a bad idea.

why not 8-1?  If 9-0 is plausible, 8-1 is easy.

But I don't agree with either statement.

Indiana is Trump+19, you can make a map where every district is at least double digits for Trump.  Risky, but it would likely end up working.  

This applies to everyone who is drawing maps for states without an unbiased citizen-led commission: Partisanship is not the only concern when drawing districts, and is sometimes not the most important. Incumbents or legislative allies can and will level demands that oftentimes cannot be ignored without making enemies out of some faction of your caucus, who in time may enact their revenge. Mappers may have geographic or cultural biases and draw maps to those groups favor - as seen in Louisiana 2010 and the Northern-favoring state GOP leadership. Sometimes states fear outside action, be that citizen referendum or the DOJ back before Shelby, and maybe once again if a Biden trifecta creates modern section 4 guidelines for our data driven era.

The only real times when partisanship is the only factor in redistricting is when the mappers fear for their political lives - best seen in the last maps Georgia and Texas democrats put into law.

I know there are other concerns.  My point is, 9=0 is mathematically possible, so the GOP should try for 8-1 or at the very least 7-1-1. But 8-1 is possible where the only R seat that's competitive is IN-1, incumbent homes staying  their districts, and it isn't extremely ugly.  Also, Pete Visclosky is retiring, so in 2022 Republicans would be running against a freshman dem (Frank Mrvan), who should be easier to defeat than an entrenched incumbent.  Especially if IN-1 trends R again in 2020, the seat is gone.  

Updated my map. Every seat at least R+11. My map would likely hold up with no risk of backfiring. No seat is R+10 or less.

1: R+11, 2: R+11, 3: R+11, 4:R+11, 5: R+12, 6: R+20, 7: R+30, 8: R+24, 9: R+14

Impressive, but draws incumbents out of their districts.  An 8-1 would be safer, cleaner, and satisfy incumbents.

9-0 is doable. I don't care about incumbent protection. See my California maps.

Levin is drawn out (replaced by Democratic Escondido seat); Issa/Campa-Najjar also drawn out (replaced by OC south hills, Oceanside, and wine country seat):



Porter is drawn out (OC gets fewer seats due to fewer county splits and Irvine is moved into a coastal seat); Lowenthal is drawn out but might retire anyway (Lowenthal's seat loses Long Beach and Lakewood, turning it into a coastal OC Asian seat with Huntington Beach):



Garamendi is drawn out:

CA is drawn by an independent commission.  IN is drawn by the legislature, they will protect Republican incumbents.  

Yes, but I pointed out that I personally don't care about protecting incumbents when I draw maps. My California and Indiana maps both draw out incumbents. My Indiana map is safe from Democratic waves.

[Idaho Conservative]

Yes, but I pointed out that I personally don't care about protecting incumbents when I draw maps. My California and Indiana maps both draw out incumbents. My Indiana map is safe from Democratic waves.
[/quote]

Depends on Trump margin.

[libertpaulian]

Could a possible future IN-05 consist of the northern chunk of Marion County, Hamilton County, Madison County, Delaware County, and the Town of Zionsville (located in Boone County)?

[lfromnj]

Could a possible future IN-05 consist of the northern chunk of Marion County, Hamilton County, Madison County, Delaware County, and the Town of Zionsville (located in Boone County)?

As in a fair map?
Sure
The GOP has to put northern Indy in the indy sink now though as northern indy zoomed left in 2016.

[Former President tack50]

Could a possible future IN-05 consist of the northern chunk of Marion County, Hamilton County, Madison County, Delaware County, and the Town of Zionsville (located in Boone County)?

As in a fair map?
Sure
The GOP has to put northern Indy in the indy sink now though as northern indy zoomed left in 2016.

So basically to save IN-05 long term the orientation basically changes so northern Indianapolis goes into the Dem sink while Southern Indianapolis (which is trending slower and is more republican) goes into one of the R districts?

[I’m not Stu]

What is the most odd connection of areas on my Indiana 9-0 map?

[Idaho Conservative]

Could a possible future IN-05 consist of the northern chunk of Marion County, Hamilton County, Madison County, Delaware County, and the Town of Zionsville (located in Boone County)?

As in a fair map?
Sure
The GOP has to put northern Indy in the indy sink now though as northern indy zoomed left in 2016.

So basically to save IN-05 long term the orientation basically changes so northern Indianapolis goes into the Dem sink while Southern Indianapolis (which is trending slower and is more republican) goes into one of the R districts?

South Marion is R+14.  If republicans do nothing else, moving the Indy district north is what I guarantee happens.  Also, the Lake County district either takes in South Bend or gets cracked.  That will depend on how Walorski does in 2020 and hhow in general IN performs relative to 2016.  If dems lose more ground in NW IN, definitely gets cracked. 

[I’m not Stu]

Might Gary end up with an all-Republican delegation?

[Idaho Conservative]

Might Gary end up with an all-Republican delegation?

yeah, if they crack it.  One district might be competitive but leaning r.  No chance Indianapolis gets cracked tho. 

[I’m not Stu]

None of the seats of my gerrymander are competitive.

[Idaho Conservative]

None of the seats of my gerrymander are competitive.

yeah but IN won't draw a map that ugly. 

[I’m not Stu]

None of the seats of my gerrymander are competitive.

yeah but IN won't draw a map that ugly. 

What's the weirdest thing I did on my ugly gerrymander?

[Idaho Conservative]

None of the seats of my gerrymander are competitive.

yeah but IN won't draw a map that ugly. 

What's the weirdest thing I did on my ugly gerrymander?

Isn't it obvious?  Splitting counties so many ways.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.indianapolismonthly.com/news-and-opinion/politics/will-the-fifth-district-follow-americas-suburbs-left

This is mostly a puff piece on IN-05's suburbs, but it contains an interesting exposé into how Indiana came to their initial congressional districts in 2010. We already knew the public side, with Mitch Daniels pushing for 'clean' Republican lines, but not the private backroom side of things.

[StateBoiler]

I feel the thread has not had much discussion about the 1st. I feel the 1st is going to define everything else that happens in the rest of the state. Does the district border move south or move east? I can't realistically see Lake County not remaining whole. Being at a corner limits what you can do.

I'd be in favor of white liberal areas in northern Marion getting subsumed into the 7th if it forces Andre Carson - one of the most worthless Congressmen ever - to start doing something to stave off a primary challenge.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

you...could. In theory.
I expect Greg Pence will take on a lot more Dem territory.

[lfromnj]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

you...could. In theory.
I expect Greg Pence will take on a lot more Dem territory.

Trey Hollingsworth would be the one who would be hurt most, he has the least ties to the Indiana GOP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s best to split Indy instead of Gary if you want to go GOP-8 to Dem-1. Could Marion County be split between 4 districts?

you...could. In theory.
I expect Greg Pence will take on a lot more Dem territory.

Trey Hollingsworth would be the one who would be hurt most, he has the least ties to the Indiana GOP.

fair point.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/30/indiana-redistricting-2020-choose-your-own-adventure/

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/04/14/indianas-1st-congressional-district-a-sociocultural-and-political-analysis/

Btw I feel these 2 threads from RRH give some useful insight into the current and future makeup of the 1st district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2d96c7e7-39bd-40d6-833e-bae1c3acbf2d
I drew this map up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Now - looking at it, there is only one legal concern that is worth mentioning - that AAs in Marion County are divided into 4 seats. Most likely, if this is held to be strong enough of a problem that a revision is needed, the solution is to rejigg things so that 6 loses almost all non-black, Dem friendly areas, in return for picking up more AA precincts. But this will make the map messier and worse looking.

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2d96c7e7-39bd-40d6-833e-bae1c3acbf2d
I drew this map up.

Those R+5 PVIs do not look comfortable for the Republicans at all. Andre Carson of course would be a non-factor, but very risky still. Those seats would have a good chance of voting for Biden this year, e.g.