2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1437809618198093827

They drew 7-2, IN-1 not cracked.

Glorious news!

[Oryxslayer]

For all the focus on IN-01, the biggest change from the map seems to be centered on the South of the state. The current IN-09 is practically dismantled.

They no longer fear a blue dog reemerging from the south of the state, so there is no need to trisect it. Hollingsworth's Indiana address is in the south of the state, and Clout-heavy Pence lives in the suburbs, so both could benefit. Also if Hollingsworth is actually going statewide in 2024 then some southern legislator might have wanted a future job opportunity.

[StateBoiler]

The House Republican Caucus has posted their proposed map. They do NOT crack Lake County:
https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/clientuploads/2021/Redistricting/All_Map_Comparison_Congressional_Districts.pdf

I thought the 2001-2011 map was the one and was dissecting it. Wow that looked ugly.

1st-largely left the same, just grabs a different section of LaPorte County while still taking in Michigan City
2nd-aforementioned LaPorte County change, takes in more of Kosciusko (probably all of Warsaw now), and a section of Cass County
3rd-loses some Kosciusko, now not in Warsaw at all, now has all of Blackford County (Hartford City), and takes in northern Randolph County
4th-loses southern Fountain County, loses almost all of Howard County it had (including Kokomo), loses eastern Cass County, now has all of Boone County (gaining Zionsville), and now has all of Morgan County
5th-loses northern Marion County, has almost all of Howard County (gaining Kokomo), loses its portion of Blackford County, and gains all of Delaware County (Muncie)
6th-loses Delaware County (Muncie), loses southern Blackford County, loses northern Randolph County, gains southern Marion County, loses southern Bartholomew County while I think still retaining Columbus, and loses pretty much all of the southeast corner counties of the state
7th-goes from all of Marion County south of a certain line to all of Marion County north of a certain line
8th-gains southern Fountain County, Orange County, and the remainder of Crawford County
9th-loses its part of Morgan County, loses Johnson County, gains southern Bartholomew County, and gains pretty much all of the southeast corner counties of the state

[Oryxslayer]

State house map.

Is that actually a Dem pack in Carmel/Fishers I spot?

Most obtuse district is probably the one that goes around the edge of SW Marion, so yeah, definitely cleaned up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Great map from the Indiana Republicans.

[Nyvin]

For all the focus on IN-01, the biggest change from the map seems to be centered on the South of the state. The current IN-09 is practically dismantled.

It's mostly an incumbent protection map.  They also shored up IN-5 quite heavily and made IN-6 more Democratic (it was previously almost an R vote sink).

Even IN-7 moves a few points left.

[Tintrlvr]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

[Skill and Chance]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

[lfromnj]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin.  

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using whole counties.

[StateBoiler]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Remove Ball State University and Muncie might as well be Gary. Auto industry left with all its jobs.

I listen to the Boss Hog of Liberty mostly politics podcast which covers east central Indiana from Henry County. I know when they talk about congressional candidates (not Pence, he wouldn't talk to them) crossing the 6th district to talk to everyone, the candidates would be "we've racked up 30,000 miles on our car the past 6 months" and knew their district was going to have to get LARGER due to population loss. I think all those candidates would gladly take southern Marion county vs. driving down to the southeast corner of the state, albeit really changes the district.

[Skill and Chance]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using the Democrat proposal from 2010.

Maybe they left South Bend out because they don't want to end up with Congressman Buttigieg?

[StateBoiler]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using the Democrat proposal from 2010.

Maybe they left South Bend out because they don't want to end up with Congressman Buttigieg?

He has no interest.

[StateBoiler]

https://indypolitics.org/map-maker-map-maker-part-1/

GOP map highlights

The proposed Congressional map keeps 84 of Indiana’s 92 counties whole, and includes a near equal deviation, two or fewer persons, from the ideal population of 753,948.

  The proposed Indiana House map increases the number of counties that are wholly contained within one House district from 26 to 32. There are 22 fewer township splits where a single township is represented by multiple House districts. The draft House map includes a less than 1 percent deviation from the ideal population of 67,855 for each district.

The proposed Congressional map keeps 84 of Indiana’s 92 counties whole, and includes a near equal deviation, two or fewer persons, from the ideal population of 753,948.

Both plans are substantially comparable to or better than the maps passed in 2011 based on the most widely acknowledged compactness standards.

Reaction from Indiana House GOP leadership.

These maps follow all statutory and constitutional requirements and reflect the population trends over the last 10 years. For the new House maps, Representative Steuerwald took a holistic approach and worked tremendously hard to keep communities of interest together with a focus on compactness,” said House Speaker Todd Huston (R-Fishers).

“These proposed maps are the culmination of a months-long effort, which included listening to Hoosiers across the state. We pulled together all the data along with public input to draw fair maps that account for shifts in population over the years. We look forward to obtaining additional public input and fulfilling our constitutional duties in the coming weeks,” said State Rep. Greg Steuerwald (R-Avon), author of House Bill 1581.

“I have been pleased with the high level of collaboration between the House and Senate as we have worked to prepare our new draft congressional map. I look forward to continued conversations with members of the public and other legislators on this proposal as we move forward,” said State Sen. Eric Koch (R-Bedford), sponsor of House Bill 1581.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using the Democrat proposal from 2010.

Maybe they left South Bend out because they don't want to end up with Congressman Buttigieg?

He has no interest.

If he did, how well would he fair?

[StateBoiler]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using the Democrat proposal from 2010.

Maybe they left South Bend out because they don't want to end up with Congressman Buttigieg?

He has no interest.

If he did, how well would he fair?

I don't think a former strong presidential candidate is going to run in a race for Congress where he has a chance of losing, that and his desire to only serve in an executive capacity. Buttigieg's prior experience running outside of South Bend was losing a statewide race 57-40.

[Canis]

I wonder what the breakdown is for the 2018 Senate race is with the new map? Im glad that they drew 7-2. it's annoying that they shored up IN-05 but they could have gone for 8-1 or 9-0 which would have been horrible. So I'll take it lol.

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder what the breakdown is for the 2018 Senate race is with the new map? Im glad that they drew 7-2. it's annoying that they shored up IN-05 but they could have gone for 8-1 or 9-0 which would have been horrible. So I'll take it lol.

2018 race is solid 7-2, with the closest district being IN-02 at Braun+8. A safe map under a 'closer' election seems to be the desired outcome.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why didn't they take the free seat ? Parchocial concerns or something ?. They even packed it further from a swing seat to a lean d seat

[StateBoiler]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickroberts317/status/1437813164431888387/photo/1

[GALeftist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickroberts317/status/1437813164431888387/photo/1

Was about to say; it's plausible that IN-05 might still be competitive later in the decade, but it's Trump+16 rather than Trump+2 now, about at Republican as IN-02. It could flip in a wave in the latter part of the decade if Hamilton keeps shooting left, I guess, but the same could be said of IN-01, so I think it's mostly a wash. Anyway, good on you, INGOP. Obviously I'd have preferred a swingier IN-05 but I will very much take an incumbent protection map

[Canis]

I wonder which districts Rainwater came in second and which one was his best in the 2020 Governors race?

[Storr]

The House Republican Caucus has posted their proposed map. They do NOT crack Lake County:
https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/clientuploads/2021/Redistricting/All_Map_Comparison_Congressional_Districts.pdf

I thought the 2001-2011 map was the one and was dissecting it. Wow that looked ugly.

1st-largely left the same, just grabs a different section of LaPorte County while still taking in Michigan City
2nd-aforementioned LaPorte County change, takes in more of Kosciusko (probably all of Warsaw now), and a section of Cass County
3rd-loses some Kosciusko, now not in Warsaw at all, now has all of Blackford County (Hartford City), and takes in northern Randolph County
4th-loses southern Fountain County, loses almost all of Howard County it had (including Kokomo), loses eastern Cass County, now has all of Boone County (gaining Zionsville), and now has all of Morgan County
5th-loses northern Marion County, has almost all of Howard County (gaining Kokomo), loses its portion of Blackford County, and gains all of Delaware County (Muncie)
6th-loses Delaware County (Muncie), loses southern Blackford County, loses northern Randolph County, gains southern Marion County, loses southern Bartholomew County while I think still retaining Columbus, and loses pretty much all of the southeast corner counties of the state
7th-goes from all of Marion County south of a certain line to all of Marion County north of a certain line
8th-gains southern Fountain County, Orange County, and the remainder of Crawford County
9th-loses its part of Morgan County, loses Johnson County, gains southern Bartholomew County, and gains pretty much all of the southeast corner counties of the state

According to this map with township and municipal lines included, the 2nd would indeed include all of Warsaw. Interestingly, the only large-ish town or city (other than Indianapolis-Marion County, of course) not crossing county lines which would divided among two districts appears to be the city of LaPorte.

https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/clientuploads/2021/Redistricting/Proposed_2021_Congressional_Maps_Districts_Counties_Townships_Cities.pdf

[Devils30]

IN-1 at Biden +8 could trend R and eventually flip. Problem is that by the time this happens, it's possible some of the new Trump +12 Texas suburban seats are D+5 and cancels it out. Who knows if maybe we have some backdoor deals like keeping an IN-1, MO-5 in exchange for a redder NM-2, MD-1.

I think a big factor in minimal change maps is incumbents not wanting  40% of constituents to be new as this invites MAGA challengers. 

[Skill and Chance]

IN-1 at Biden +8 could trend R and eventually flip. Problem is that by the time this happens, it's possible some of the new Trump +12 Texas suburban seats are D+5 and cancels it out. Who knows if maybe we have some backdoor deals like keeping an IN-1, MO-5 in exchange for a redder NM-2, MD-1.

I think a big factor in minimal change maps is incumbents not wanting  40% of constituents to be new as this invites MAGA challengers. 

Yes, the northern Dem seat could still flip by the end of the decade.  It had a lower margin for Biden than for Clinton, which is quite unusual for the Midwest. 

[Oryxslayer]

IN-1 at Biden +8 could trend R and eventually flip. Problem is that by the time this happens, it's possible some of the new Trump +12 Texas suburban seats are D+5 and cancels it out. Who knows if maybe we have some backdoor deals like keeping an IN-1, MO-5 in exchange for a redder NM-2, MD-1.

I think a big factor in minimal change maps is incumbents not wanting  40% of constituents to be new as this invites MAGA challengers.  

The commentariot are the only ones who believe that there are deals between mappers across states. Spoilers, this is a state-by-state process, with an infinite number of local variables - the desire for nation partisan gain being only one. The national party has very limited power to influence the lines. As you note, its probably a case of incumbents liking their current seats, as is usual during this process. I did note at the start of this thread that no Republican would want Gary in their seat, just for cultural reasons and that they would have to open an office for constituent outreach reasons in such a populous area.

The only people who actually can influence maps across state lines are us - those who submit maps to mappers for multiple states - and the mapping firms/lawyers who draw the lines and can be contracted by multiple clients. Like the GOPs unscrupulous snake from 2010 who died recently.