2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really just reminds me of how much imma miss the clean Indiana map we currently have. My guess is the safe districts can be made cleaner though, but any Gary crack won’t look nice, especially since it causes a weird situation with IN-3 where it’s not quite enough to take in Ft Wayne but also not quite enough not to

[I’m not Stu]

My wacky 9R-0D Pubmander map that cracks Gary and Indianapolis. It’s a maximalist IDGAF about incumbents GOP map.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my attempt to draw a 9-0 R Gerrymander.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc188286-921c-48a0-844d-7f3c0e08ef73

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any chance Rs risk a 9-0 map. The poster above actually made a pretty clean one.

[Brittain33]

Is there any chance Rs risk a 9-0 map. The poster above actually made a pretty clean one.

Indianapolis literally looks like a sphincter on that map. There is no chance a legislature does that kind of 5-way split.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a cleaner 9-0 map. I'll see if I can do a map that only splits Marion 3 ways.

[Idaho Conservative]

9-0 is definitely doable, everything likely and safe R, though which seats fit into which category might change throughout the decade.  No Republican incumbents are double bunked either. I doubt they'd be this aggressive considering no incumbent would be particularly happy with having a seat that could be in play during a wave election, but I think 8-1 is very doable.

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 9-district map of Indiana.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

36/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
84/100 on the Compactness Index
79/100 on County Splitting
42/100 on the Minority Representation index
4/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (lol)

The map above shows results from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election (the closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election out of the choices given).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Indiana Attorney General Election: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Indiana: 7R to 2D

2016 Indiana Gubernatorial Election: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Indiana: 7R to 2D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Indiana: 7R to 2D


Opinions?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair 9-district map of Indiana.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

36/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
84/100 on the Compactness Index
79/100 on County Splitting
42/100 on the Minority Representation index
4/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (lol)

The map above shows results from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election (the closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election out of the choices given).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Indiana Attorney General Election: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Indiana: 7R to 2D

2016 Indiana Gubernatorial Election: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Indiana: 7R to 2D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Indiana: 7R to 2D


Opinions?

That Indianapolis district is interesting. First time I've seen such a district.

[BoiseBoy]

Expect proposal maps September 14 (one week from today):

https://indianacitizen.org/house-adds-another-public-hearing-on-redistricting-to-be-held-one-day-after-release-of-maps/

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Indiana finally has 2020 Election data!

Here is a 8-1 R map that I drew based on the 2020 Prez election.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/880181ce-d0b9-47bc-8287-4e5bce710002

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made an updated 9-0. Still possible on 2020; closest district is IN-1 at Trump + 11. I tried to balance the districts with urban, suburban, and rural areas so by the time a district flips to Dems Dems are probably competative in Indiana and the GOP is in the trash nationtionally. Any chance the GOP goes for something like this?

[BoiseBoy]

Splitting Indianapolis like that would lead to lawsuits up the ass. A 8-1 is more likely than 9-0.

[Coastal Elitist]

Splitting Indianapolis like that would lead to lawsuits up the ass. A 8-1 is more likely than 9-0.

I think they'll go 8-1 but what exactly would you sue over? Carson's seat is not protected by the VRA as the current version is less than 30% black.

[Oryxslayer]

Splitting Indianapolis like that would lead to lawsuits up the ass. A 8-1 is more likely than 9-0.

I think they'll go 8-1 but what exactly would you sue over? Carson's seat is not protected by the VRA as the current version is less than 30% black.

I'm sure you can argue - and groups will if done - that a 30% AA seat offers access to minority voters cause they on their own can decide the Dem primary, which then decides the general. Carving it up therefore violates the VRA because you are - and not the natural process of population migration as seen in Detroit for example - eliminating minority access already granted and proven to work.

[StateBoiler]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

General Assembly Republicans will unveil Indiana and U.S. House maps on Tuesday. Tom Davies of AP writes: The big question is whether they will focus on shoring up the suburban Indianapolis district that U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz narrowly kept in Republican hands last year to maintain their 7-2 control of Indiana’s U.S. House delegation. A more aggressive approach could see them try to carve up the northwestern Indiana district now held by U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan with the aim of ending Democrats’ decades long dominance there and gaining another GOP seat as Republicans look to regain U.S. House control in the 2022 midterm elections. Davies notes that due to population shifts, Spartz's 5th CD must shed 51,000 voters (goodbye Marion County), U.S. Rep. Andre Carson's 7th CD has 33,000 too many, while U.S. Reps. Larry Buchson's 8th CD and Greg Pence's 6th CD will need to pick up around 30,000 voters.

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

[S019]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

General Assembly Republicans will unveil Indiana and U.S. House maps on Tuesday. Tom Davies of AP writes: The big question is whether they will focus on shoring up the suburban Indianapolis district that U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz narrowly kept in Republican hands last year to maintain their 7-2 control of Indiana’s U.S. House delegation. A more aggressive approach could see them try to carve up the northwestern Indiana district now held by U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan with the aim of ending Democrats’ decades long dominance there and gaining another GOP seat as Republicans look to regain U.S. House control in the 2022 midterm elections. Davies notes that due to population shifts, Spartz's 5th CD must shed 51,000 voters (goodbye Marion County), U.S. Rep. Andre Carson's 7th CD has 33,000 too many, while U.S. Reps. Larry Buchson's 8th CD and Greg Pence's 6th CD will need to pick up around 30,000 voters.

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

Do we know when specifically? Also keeping my fingers crossed that they don't crack Gary.

[BoiseBoy]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

General Assembly Republicans will unveil Indiana and U.S. House maps on Tuesday. Tom Davies of AP writes: The big question is whether they will focus on shoring up the suburban Indianapolis district that U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz narrowly kept in Republican hands last year to maintain their 7-2 control of Indiana’s U.S. House delegation. A more aggressive approach could see them try to carve up the northwestern Indiana district now held by U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan with the aim of ending Democrats’ decades long dominance there and gaining another GOP seat as Republicans look to regain U.S. House control in the 2022 midterm elections. Davies notes that due to population shifts, Spartz's 5th CD must shed 51,000 voters (goodbye Marion County), U.S. Rep. Andre Carson's 7th CD has 33,000 too many, while U.S. Reps. Larry Buchson's 8th CD and Greg Pence's 6th CD will need to pick up around 30,000 voters.

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

Do we know when specifically? Also keeping my fingers crossed that they don't crack Gary.

I think around noon, so just over an hour.

[Oryxslayer]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

This is something I find interesting about Indiana. In 2012 they understood the GOP had a solid partisan advantage and didn't see any need to mess up the lines and did a clean gerrymander  - sensible but biased. Interesting to see that it might happen again.

[lfromnj]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

This is something I find interesting about Indiana. In 2012 they understood the GOP had a solid partisan advantage and didn't see any need to mess up the lines and did a clean gerrymander  - sensible but biased. Interesting to see that it might happen again.

The state legislative lines were pretty ugly. Mitch daniels wanted a cleaner map congressionally though

[StateBoiler]

Maps supposed to come out today.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Biden-goes-the-mandate-route-Blistering-GOP-response-Map-Tuesday-Rep-Clere-primaried/39/123/28047

Per The Cheat Sheet, the state legislature maps are supposed to look cleaner than the previous version was.

This is something I find interesting about Indiana. In 2012 they understood the GOP had a solid partisan advantage and didn't see any need to mess up the lines and did a clean gerrymander  - sensible but biased. Interesting to see that it might happen again.

The state legislative lines were pretty ugly. Mitch daniels wanted a cleaner map congressionally though

The congressional map to me as it is now is pretty much perfect. The number of split counties is so small and largely fell in line with the TV reach. When I attended the initial Libertarian redistricting meeting I cited the 3rd district as being perfect in my opinion because the lines were drawn pretty much matched everywhere that the Fort Wayne TV stations reached to (minus the counties over in Ohio of course).

If they try to crack Lake County I frankly think that's dumb. I wish I could've attended the redistricting meeting they held in Fort Wayne but could not, but the one thing I would've mentioned if I could have, was there should only be one district in any map (Congress, State Senate, State House) that crosses the time zone line in NW Indiana and only one district that crosses the time zone line in SW Indiana. There's a very real reason for why you shouldn't of you have different poll opening and closing times. For Mrvan's district, that would mean you give him probably the rest of LaPorte County and then go grab the 3 rock-red Republican counties to the south before you start touching the eastern time zone. This district is one if I were a Republican mapmaker I'd just leave alone. Give Mrvan more territory because he needs it, and the district is naturally becoming more Republican. Just let it naturally occur.

John Jacobs from the State House is supposedly going to get drawn into the same district with a Democrat, he was kicked out of the Republican caucus earlier this year, so is not someone the Republicans would mind being gone. There's 1 or 2 other intransigents they may make life difficult for. A lot of Republican rural retirements from the state legislature because where the population growth was occurring was making redistricting impossible to keep everyone happy. Two Senate Democrats from Marion County, J.D. Ford and Faddy Quaddora, were likely to be drawn together, although that's due to I guess they live very close together and I read that was likely going to happen many months ago.

[BoiseBoy]

The House Republican Caucus has posted their proposed map. They do NOT crack Lake County:
https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/clientuploads/2021/Redistricting/All_Map_Comparison_Congressional_Districts.pdf

A more detailed view with city lines:
https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/clientuploads/2021/Redistricting/Proposed_2021_Congressional_Maps_Districts_Counties_Townships_Cities.pdf

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1437809618198093827

They drew 7-2, IN-1 not cracked.

[Oryxslayer]

The House Republican Caucus has posted their proposed map. They do NOT crack Lake County:
https://www.indianahouserepublicans.com/clientuploads/2021/Redistricting/All_Map_Comparison_Congressional_Districts.pdf

Least-Change style plan, looks great. IN-05 trades the south of the county for the north to reinforce IN-05, but we knew that was coming from a mile away.  

Shorten links please.

[Zaybay]

For all the focus on IN-01, the biggest change from the map seems to be centered on the South of the state. The current IN-09 is practically dismantled.