2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[lfromnj]

What's a full district of Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke for the 1st, is it too large or too small?

Reason I ask is those are the 6 central time zone counties in northwest Indiana.

835,850 people per 2018 population estimates, 98,359 over the quota (737,491), so clearly too big.
Subtract Porter and add Pulaski though, you have 737,958 people, just perfect for a district.

You probably need to add Pulaski by 2020 estimates if I had to guess. Fairly good and reasonable district that the Indiana GOP can make

[Left Wing]

Here's a state house map I drew. I tried to make it somewhat proportional to the state as a whole but it's difficult with the D vote being so clustered in certain areas. There are 64 Republican districts, 25 Democratic ones and 11 competitive with five majority-minority districts. I kept the county splits to 83 out of an expected 99.

[Former President tack50]

Following from lfromnj, here is my take on a State Senate map



Per DRA, there are 33 Republican districts, 11 Democratic districts and 6 competitive ones. There are 5 majority minority districts. 3 black districts in Indianapolis (48, 46 and 45% black), 1 Hispanic opportunity/plurality district near Chicago (38% hispanic, 38% white, 20% black) and 1 black district in Gary (51% black).

The tipping point districts are districts 28 and 29. They are both very similar, at around R+14 and cover 2 halves of Hamilton County (Carmel and Fishers respectively)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6fa854f7-7595-45d2-9dbd-d2c2d2e1c388

[Coastal Elitist]

The problem with DRA for Indiana is they don't have 2016 President or anything more recent. If you're going off 2012-2016 composite you're not getting useful numbers. I whipped up this 8-1 map where I didn't split any counties except Marion so that way I could calculate 2020 numbers. So the populations for each district are only off by a few thousand.





This map doesn't even split Lake County and it gives Mrvan a seat that he'll have trouble winning as it trends away from dems. It also shores up Spartz into a district she shouldn't have problems winning as it only trended a little bit compared to her current one. I know this currently draws out some incumbents but it can be adjusted to fix that and should maintain similar numbers. If Republicans want to be more aggressive splitting Lake County should make the first even safer. Compared to the 2012-2016 composite numbers the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th all trended R by a few points.

[Sol]

DRA has 2016 numbers for most states.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

DRA has 2016 numbers for most states.

I wish DRA has 2016 and 2018 numbers for all states. Also 2012 numbers would be nice addition as well.

[Coastal Elitist]

DRA finally added numbers for 2016 and I was able to estimate the 2016-2020 PVI for each. I also made a few adjustments to accommodate incumbents.



IN-1: R+5
IN-2: R+12
IN-3: R+15
IN-4: R+15
IN-5: R+14
IN-7: R+15
IN-8: R+19
IN-9: R+19

[S019]

8-1 Indiana, even Donnelly won only one seat, most vulnerable seat is Baird at Trump+13 and Mrvan at Trump+14, but given Gary's hard R swing, those are both basically Safe R, shored up Spartz by shifting Carson's seat north to pick up southern HamCo and northern Marion. Everyone keeps their home except maybe Mrvan, but I didn't care for his home, given he was targeted for drawing out. Perhaps most importantly every GOP incumbent except for Pence (whose seat is a kind of inconvenient (for the INGOP) GOP sink) keeps their geographic base.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/12663fa6-81c9-49f3-a874-1f81e5aaaceb

[I’m not Stu]

Would cracking IN-01 require drawing Walorski out of IN-02?

[Coastal Elitist]

Would cracking IN-01 require drawing Walorski out of IN-02?

No see my map above it satisfies all R incumbents

[I’m not Stu]

Would cracking IN-01 require drawing Walorski out of IN-02?

No see my map above it satisfies all R incumbents

I wonder if the INGOP is willing to draw out Walorski to make an even more extreme map.

[Coastal Elitist]

Would cracking IN-01 require drawing Walorski out of IN-02?

No see my map above it satisfies all R incumbents

I wonder if the INGOP is willing to draw out Walorski to make an even more extreme map.

That's unnecessary. You can split Lake County and still keep Waloriski happy. Actually, in my map Walorski moves to the third and Banks moves to the second. 1 and 2 in this map would be safe with 2020 numbers. https://davesredistricting.org/join/49be7452-47d4-4a53-b273-60f6914084b1

[I’m not Stu]

Does the INGOP care about protecting incumbent Republicans?

[Former President tack50]

I created this map as a fair map though idk how fair it is exactly. Even with 2018-Senate numbers it ends up as a 7-2



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1777ebb1-d716-48d8-a498-1de4822981d6

IN-01 (Gary / coast): Clinton+12, D+7
IN-02 (South Bend area): Trump+24, R+12
IN-03 (Fort Wayne area): Trump+34, R+17
IN-04 (rural northwest Indiana, Terre Haute): Trump+34, R+15
IN-05 (North Indianapolis suburbs): Trump+27, R+17
IN-06 (southeast Indiana, Louisville suburbs): Trump+34, R+15
IN-07 (Indianapolis): Clinton+46, D+17
IN-08 (southwest Indiana): Trump+38, R+17
IN-09 (South Indianapolis suburbs, Bloomington): Trump+27, R+14

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I created this map as a fair map though idk how fair it is exactly. Even with 2018-Senate numbers it ends up as a 7-2



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1777ebb1-d716-48d8-a498-1de4822981d6

IN-01 (Gary / coast): Clinton+12, D+7
IN-02 (South Bend area): Trump+24, R+12
IN-03 (Fort Wayne area): Trump+34, R+17
IN-04 (rural northwest Indiana, Terre Haute): Trump+34, R+15
IN-05 (North Indianapolis suburbs): Trump+27, R+17
IN-06 (southeast Indiana, Louisville suburbs): Trump+34, R+15
IN-07 (Indianapolis): Clinton+46, D+17
IN-08 (southwest Indiana): Trump+38, R+17
IN-09 (South Indianapolis suburbs, Bloomington): Trump+27, R+14

This works well as a fair-nonpartisan map. For a fair-proportional you probably need to get Bloomington in a Dem district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Effort at a fair-proportional IN map. IN-01 has been weakened in its Dem lean, with IN-02 losing most of its most Rep territory. Under these lines Walorski likely loses in 2018. IN-09 now connects Dem-leaning and Dem-trending territory in Indianapolis with Bloomington and is Dem-leaning outright.
It is imperfect however. I will try to do something better while still respecting compactness, something I placed as among my highest concerns when making this map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ad23910-9898-4ff7-b31a-f380446361b7

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I really did not like the prior map all that much. This one is better, at least in my opinion. Big change is IN-01 taking Lafayette, which is more D than northern IN rurals. This rids any chance of a GOP upset there while also allowing the 2nd to retract further and center on urban centers in Northern Indiana.
Indianapolis is also different. 7th is no longer contained to just Marion, while the 5th gets more compact. The Vigo County CD moves south and east and pushes the Perry County CD north in the process. IN-06 becomes a leftover CD by sake of necessity.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c7ae942-5b04-4980-b5c1-93f769b0fe01

[StateBoiler]

Lebanon and Richmond in the same district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lebanon and Richmond in the same district?

An imperfect 6th in return for a better 8th and 9th is something I have no problems with in the broader scheme of things.
Not to mention the whole of the ring of counties around Indianapolis is contained within just 2 districts.

[Hope For A New Era]

Indiana

No county cuts except Marion, which is cut almost in a perfectly straight line (the only deviations are to make the airport and the city of Beech Grove be all in one district, which conveniently makes the population work perfectly)

All incumbents kept in their own districts

Partisan lean mostly preserved -
01 made into a swing district, so Republicans can gain but no one will say gerrymander because it's still D-leaning (Clinton +6 in 2016)
02 moved left a bit by the addition of LaPorte - cannot be avoided in a no-county-cuts map unless you want to make it really ugly (still Trump +17 in 2016)
05 dragged off to the east to make it strongly R again (as drawn here it's Trump +24 in 2016)

[StateBoiler]

Lebanon and Richmond in the same district?

An imperfect 6th in return for a better 8th and 9th is something I have no problems with in the broader scheme of things.

Your southwest district runs from Evansville to west of Lafayette. People on that Tippecanoe County line: "we either vote with Gary or we vote with Evansville".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lebanon and Richmond in the same district?

An imperfect 6th in return for a better 8th and 9th is something I have no problems with in the broader scheme of things.

Your southwest district runs from Evansville to west of Lafayette. People on that Tippecanoe County line: "we either vote with Gary or we vote with Evansville".

Those counties have nowhere else to go. IN-01's shape cannot be seriously changed.
It makes the most sense for IN-08 to take those counties in, unless maybe there is a radical reworking of rural Indiana that moves IN-06 west so that IN-08 has to take from IN-09 and then IN-09 takes from IN-06 so that all three districts are back at quota.

[StateBoiler]

Lebanon and Richmond in the same district?

An imperfect 6th in return for a better 8th and 9th is something I have no problems with in the broader scheme of things.

Your southwest district runs from Evansville to west of Lafayette. People on that Tippecanoe County line: "we either vote with Gary or we vote with Evansville".

Those counties have nowhere else to go. IN-01's shape cannot be seriously changed.
It makes the most sense for IN-08 to take those counties in, unless maybe there is a radical reworking of rural Indiana that moves IN-06 west so that IN-08 has to take from IN-09 and then IN-09 takes from IN-06 so that all three districts are back at quota.

I'm actually on a political redistricting panel for Indiana that is going to make requests for changes for "this is how districts should be drawn" which will then drive the creation of our map for Congress and state legislature using those principles. I quietly have a lot of criticism for this section of the board because it seems to solely exist just to satisfy people's intellectual masturbation to create a result from a puzzle of in the case of Indiana "divide by 9, now make a map". If people had an overriding purpose guiding them in what they were doing or they were attempting reform in what they were doing or they actually were lobbying for what they create, that's one thing, but unless everyone is staying quiet on the ultimate masters they serve that could use what they create, I have to ask the question of why? What's the goal here unless it's just to show off your mapmaking skills? I can create a map probably where for a district I go from Angola in the northeast corner to Evansville in the southwest corner just following the Ohio and Kentucky state borders, but what would be the point of doing so? We're not looking at results whereby you crunch data to understand voting patterns and why people and communities voted the way they did. We're drawing lines for no rhyme or reason.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lebanon and Richmond in the same district?

An imperfect 6th in return for a better 8th and 9th is something I have no problems with in the broader scheme of things.

Your southwest district runs from Evansville to west of Lafayette. People on that Tippecanoe County line: "we either vote with Gary or we vote with Evansville".

Those counties have nowhere else to go. IN-01's shape cannot be seriously changed.
It makes the most sense for IN-08 to take those counties in, unless maybe there is a radical reworking of rural Indiana that moves IN-06 west so that IN-08 has to take from IN-09 and then IN-09 takes from IN-06 so that all three districts are back at quota.

I'm actually on a political redistricting panel for Indiana that is going to make requests for changes for "this is how districts should be drawn" which will then drive the creation of our map for Congress and state legislature using those principles. I quietly have a lot of criticism for this section of the board because it seems to solely exist just to satisfy people's intellectual masturbation to create a result from a puzzle of in the case of Indiana "divide by 9, now make a map". If people had an overriding purpose guiding them in what they were doing or they were attempting reform in what they were doing or they actually were lobbying for what they create, that's one thing, but unless everyone is staying quiet on the ultimate masters they serve that could use what they create, I have to ask the question of why? What's the goal here unless it's just to show off your mapmaking skills? I can create a map probably where for a district I go from Angola in the northeast corner to Evansville in the southwest corner just following the Ohio and Kentucky state borders, but what would be the point of doing so? We're not looking at results whereby you crunch data to understand voting patterns and why people and communities voted the way they did. We're drawing lines for no rhyme or reason.

Is wanting compactness a crime?
Also: it is not a stretch to extend IN-08 up north just one or two counties more. Especially if IN-09 is being turned into a dedicated Southern Indiana district.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is a wacky 7-1 Pubmander map by cracking Gary.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9bf8b1eb-499e-49fd-b984-e34107b321d0