2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2d96c7e7-39bd-40d6-833e-bae1c3acbf2d
I drew this map up.

Those R+5 PVIs do not look comfortable for the Republicans at all. Andre Carson of course would be a non-factor, but very risky still. Those seats would have a good chance of voting for Biden this year, e.g.

These are risks inherent in cracking Indianapolis. *If* you split it up, this is the best way to do it.
Also important to note that the R+5 seats will remain R the majority of the time, and there are only 2 of them. Every other R seat is at least mostly safe. So this is a net gain of one for most of the decade - net gain for Rs in my book.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2d96c7e7-39bd-40d6-833e-bae1c3acbf2d
I drew this map up.

Those R+5 PVIs do not look comfortable for the Republicans at all. Andre Carson of course would be a non-factor, but very risky still. Those seats would have a good chance of voting for Biden this year, e.g.

These are risks inherent in cracking Indianapolis. *If* you split it up, this is the best way to do it.
Also important to note that the R+5 seats will remain R the majority of the time, and there are only 2 of them. Every other R seat is at least mostly safe. So this is a net gain of one for most of the decade - net gain for Rs in my book.

cracking Lake County is a better idea.  It is a less blue district and has favorable trends.

[lfromnj]

It says 98% is in for all counties, I think Lake has a few more votes but Biden so far has done pretty bad in Lake county Indiana.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/30/indiana-redistricting-2020-choose-your-own-adventure/

Even the relatively fair 3rd scenario map only has Biden leading by 7k votes while Clinton won it by 20k votes. At the very least the GOP might just draw that swing district and call it a day. The 5th district of course is pretty easy by just removing all but the richest parts of northern Marion.

[StateBoiler]

It says 98% is in for all counties, I think Lake has a few more votes but Biden so far has done pretty bad in Lake county Indiana.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/30/indiana-redistricting-2020-choose-your-own-adventure/

Even the relatively fair 3rd scenario map only has Biden leading by 7k votes while Clinton won it by 20k votes. At the very least the GOP might just draw that swing district and call it a day. The 5th district of course is pretty easy by just removing all but the richest parts of northern Marion.

Leyva who was not a strong candidate by any means in the 1st is above 40%, the strongest a Republican (well, Leyva really, who is 0-8 now being district nominee starting in 2002) has done there as far back as I've looked.

[ProgressiveModerate]

IN-1 is D +3.14
IN-2 is R + 10.73

Everything else is safe

My quick attempt to try to gerrymander IN for the GOP. I think it's going to be very hard to make IN-1 red without brining IN-2 too much into play unless the GOP is willing to do something very obscene. Their best bet is to make it a swing district that Democrats actually have to spend time and money in to defend. Cracking Marion would also be very risky since if the gerrymander starts to backfire over the decade depending upon coming political re alignments, it could go very wrong. They are definately going to try to optimize the Marion vote sink though my shifting the district north to prevent IN-5 or it's equivalent from becoming too D-friendly down the road.

[lfromnj]

There are still a few parts in north marion the GOP will scoop up, its the most red and the richest parts, the GOP is too addicted to donors.

[Idaho Conservative]

IN-1 is D +3.14
IN-2 is R + 10.73

Everything else is safe

My quick attempt to try to gerrymander IN for the GOP. I think it's going to be very hard to make IN-1 red without brining IN-2 too much into play unless the GOP is willing to do something very obscene. Their best bet is to make it a swing district that Democrats actually have to spend time and money in to defend. Cracking Marion would also be very risky since if the gerrymander starts to backfire over the decade depending upon coming political re alignments, it could go very wrong. They are definately going to try to optimize the Marion vote sink though my shifting the district north to prevent IN-5 or it's equivalent from becoming too D-friendly down the road.

You can use Baird's district to crack Lake County rather than Walorski.  It's possible to make IN-1 lean republican (although not safe) while keeping everyone else pretty safe.  And clearly cracking Indi is a non-starter.  in 2010 that would've been the better district to crack but now clearly Lake is the best choice.  It swung towards Trump in 2020.

[StateBoiler]

IN-1 is D +3.14
IN-2 is R + 10.73

Everything else is safe

My quick attempt to try to gerrymander IN for the GOP. I think it's going to be very hard to make IN-1 red without brining IN-2 too much into play unless the GOP is willing to do something very obscene. Their best bet is to make it a swing district that Democrats actually have to spend time and money in to defend. Cracking Marion would also be very risky since if the gerrymander starts to backfire over the decade depending upon coming political re alignments, it could go very wrong. They are definately going to try to optimize the Marion vote sink though my shifting the district north to prevent IN-5 or it's equivalent from becoming too D-friendly down the road.

Is Allen in the 3rd or 6th? As far as all my connections as they exist in certain counties, the 3rd district as it exists is more or less perfect to me. And I wouldn't be a fan of grabbing Elkhart or South  Bend and putting it in the same district as Fort Wayne.

I think the Democrats would love that 5th. The 6th is prety much a Muncie-centered district.

I still think you leave Lake alone because from the past few elections it's clearly going more red and it has to add redder counties into it to get the population up. And find a more serious congressional candidate. You might not get it in 2022 but by middle of decade you might.

[Idaho Conservative]

IN-1 is R+5, IN-2 is R+9 and IN-4 is R+10.  IN-5 is now R+15.  I did this by pushing the Indianapolis district into southern Hamilton to remove D trending areas.  The only competitive district should be IN-1, Trump won it by a double digit margin so it will definitely be lean/likely R. 

[Former President tack50]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

[Idaho Conservative]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

you could unpack IN-6.  R+18 wastes a lot of votes.  Also, that IN-7 would've been very close this year, it is less red than the current IN-5

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

you could unpack IN-6.  R+18 wastes a lot of votes.  Also, that IN-7 would've been very close this year, it is less red than the current IN-5

IN-6 is the most unshakably R district in the state. It's malpractice to not use it in a cracking of Indy Dem votes.

[Coastal Elitist]

For what is worth, I decided to see if a 9-0 map is possible, even if it was likely to be a dummymander. The answer seems to be yes, and that it is actually less dumb than what I assumed (still not worth it over 8-1 though)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7e8bc114-85bb-4924-89d7-92b4405d3f1d



IN-01: R+3
IN-02: R+4
IN-03: R+7
IN-04: R+11
IN-05: R+7
IN-06: R+18
IN-07: R+8
IN-08: R+13
IN-09: R+11

So in practice, a map like this is feasable on paper. However it has an extremely serious risk of being a dummymander I imagine.

The 1st and 2nd districts, while leaning Republican, I imagine must not be all that safe?
While on the other hand districts like the 7th I drew here would also not be Safe R at all?

Still, if trends mean that the 1st and 2nd here are (mostly) safe; I wonder if it is worth it for Rs to try a map like this. 8R-0D-1S would be an improvement over the more expected 8R-1D after all.

You can make a stronger 9-0 map check out the one I posted on page 2

[Thunder98]

My relatively clean 7R-2D Map

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1d7c62d4-ec19-4d97-a757-f25f05ae7bb7

[lfromnj]

Closer to 7-1-1. The NW Indiana district only looks like Biden +2.5 after putting the whole counties and giving extra 500 votes to Trump based on the 2 extra precincts.

Not great for incumbents although not a bad map. You did "rescue" the small pocket of the ultra rich parts of NE Marion County that is still a bit red.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My relatively clean 7R-2D Map

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1d7c62d4-ec19-4d97-a757-f25f05ae7bb7

Personally I would rotate 8, 4, and 5 to reduce the size of 8's tail. But it's not a bad map if one's aimed at non-partisan lines.

[Del Tachi]

I was curious how a 2000s-style pack of the Indy suburbs into two districts and the resulting reshuffles in more rural seats would perform nowadays.  Using 2018 population estimates, I think this is pretty close to recreating the 2000s map:



I think this still performs well for the GOP and is just as good at maintaining COI's as the current map.  Metro Indy gets confined to 3 seats, as opposed to the current 5 it's chopped-up between now, which sounds about right (Greater Indy is ~30% of state population.)  The only bad thing about this map, IMO, is the Allen chop but I at least kept the City of Fort Wayne whole.

DRA doesn't have 2016/18 numbers for Indiana, so I drew based on the 2012-16 composite.  All districts are >60% GOP except for IN-02 and IN-09 (which are 57% and 58% GOP, respectively) and the urban Indy pack.  Based on what I know, the GOP map in 2010 was drawn to attach rural Dems to conservative suburbia.  Trends have made it such that in those same seats it is now the rural hinterlands that pull the districts toward the GOP. I think this map is pretty safe for the GOP with some potential for good trends toward them in IN-01

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93a4af01-075d-4549-bf75-9bf06ce9d604



I made this map with the intent to keep incumbents safe and with the same sorta vaguely general base they had before and avoid county splitting. Came out kinda interesting. I like the Indianapolis wrap around district for Spratz. IF there re any obvious problems with it let me know

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is a D Gerrymander of Indiana:



IN-01: D+6
IN-02: R+2
IN-03: R+19
IN-04: R+19
IN-05: D+3
IN-06: R+21
IN-07: D+6
IN-08: R+12
IN-09: R+22

As for that ugly elongated 8th district; after drawing the Dem districts; I wanted a district that at least went for Obama in 2008 and that was the best I could do. I was only capable of getting it to McCain+0.2 in 2008 (I am sure with a couple precinct swaps you could get it to vote Obama) but of course Safe R now. But maybe if the #populists return it might no longer be safe so you never know. It is still the least Republican of the Republican seats that I drew.

[Squidward500]

Here’s one from RRH. It says it’s meant to be a 8-1 but he didn’t have numbers from 2020


https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/12/05/indiana-8-1-redistricting/




Also, that red district looks like a Minecraft guy holding a gun

[Idaho Conservative]

Here’s one from RRH. It says it’s meant to be a 8-1 but he didn’t have numbers from 2020


https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/12/05/indiana-8-1-redistricting/




Also, that red district looks like a Minecraft guy holding a gun

It's 7-1-1  The Lake County seat is D+1 but trending R.  It's Trump+1 or 2 in 2016 but Obama won it by double digits

[Torie]

Somebody has too much time on their hands, and is probably a starving student seeking an advanced degree in political science (the mostly worthless degree known to man, that due to my perspicacity when I realized what a fraud it was, I lost like cheap suit in favor of the degrees that have made me so great), but without further ado - voila!

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/12/19/indianas-1st-congressional-district-a-post-2020-sociocultural-and-political-analysis-redistricting-preview/

[StateBoiler]

What's a full district of Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke for the 1st, is it too large or too small?

Reason I ask is those are the 6 central time zone counties in northwest Indiana.

[Zaybay]

What's a full district of Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke for the 1st, is it too large or too small?

Reason I ask is those are the 6 central time zone counties in northwest Indiana.

Lake, Porter, and LaPorte is already too large for one district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's a full district of Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke for the 1st, is it too large or too small?

Reason I ask is those are the 6 central time zone counties in northwest Indiana.

835,850 people per 2018 population estimates, 98,359 over the quota (737,491), so clearly too big.
Subtract Porter and add Pulaski though, you have 737,958 people, just perfect for a district.