Why the Hawley hype?

[Rover]

@Octosteel and @ North Carolina Yankee you guys raise interesting points.
I don't know much about Hawley, but he seems like an interesting candidate for president, I'll look up "TR from a conservative's perspective", do you have a link to the book or is it on kindle?

@Octosteel regarding Trump I've always been skeptical about his ability to deliver any of his promises, because for one he has no governing experience. Though in all fairness to Trump, even let assume he tried to pass a big infrastructure package or a grand vocational apprenticeship program, the biggest obstacle like many have already mentioned would be House and Senate GOP.
Good thing Paul Ryan is no longer a house representative but still the freedom caucus has a significant presence in the house, I don't see them voting for an infrastructure program. They need to be booted out sooner rather than later.

The GOP has a big problem when it comes to healthcare, Obamacare isn't working well, there are a lot of people still uninsured and many people paying high premiums. What's the ideal plan?  I have no idea, but I don't think doing nothing works anymore. The party needs to assign a commission and study carefully what's works, it will take a while to formulate a plan that the party will broadly support and can be sold to the public.

I think Biden will probably win the presidency, the Democrats will keep the house and they might capture the senate. But I don't think Biden would be a happy president, his honeymoon will end the moment he's inaugurated. He'll be dealing with Covid19 economic and health fallout, criminal justice reform, Obamacare, and the left of the democratic party breathing under his neck. I also think he will be physically and mentally exhausted, he'll be inaugurated at the age of 78. He'll be having calls at day and night, meeting on weekdays and weekends, dealing with security, and every problem that arises, this takes a lot from any person. Just look at Obama when he inaugurated in 2008 and the last day of his presidency, he aged over 20 years in 8 years, his hair turned gray and wrinkles were visible all over his face. I'd be truly surprised if Biden was able to serve an entire term, without suffering great mental or physical breakdown, and I don't wish him that, I wish him a long, happy, healthy life.

The Democrats will be extremely joyful when they defeat Trump in November. Just like how many Republicans felt after 2016 winning the presidency by surprise, keeping the house and senate but 2 years later in 2018, the house was lost and the senate was narrowly kept, republicans realized very little been achieved, Obamacare hasn't been fixed or "repealed and replaced", Immigration reform hasn't been delivered and the tax cuts didn't really change public opinion much.

I suspect the Democrats will be equally disappointed by 2022. but who knows what will happen in the future.

I don't think the GOP will win in 2024 if they lose in 2020.

[Rover]

It's called Theodore Roosevelt: Preacher of Righteousness. It's available on JSTOR for free if you have a university or library account.

I think the Freedom Caucus isn't the issue. They know that trump's base is their district's base and they are aware now (they weren't before 2016) that they weren't elected for their economic policies. That's why Mulaney the budget hawk is adding trillions to the budget and Mark Meadows is the Chief of Staff. The real problem is the general leadership and average GOP House member that still have their brains in the Reagan era. But I think if you have a strong republican president with a populist agenda he campaigned on, none of them want to lose their primary enough to oppose it.

Oh I think Biden will have a very hard time. The left is united against trump and will break into a lot of infighting once Biden is in charge if he's not everything they dreamed of and Biden will be less adept at coalition management to Obama who could be all things to all people. Biden is older than Paul von Hindenburg when he was elected President. It's not going to be fun for him


I feel the GOP can pull it together by 2024. They have more of a unifying message that they realize has popular support than they ever did in 2008 or even 2010 when they won their majority. Because I don't think the 2022 GOP will be waging war against it self the way it was doing in 2010.

Thanks, I'll read it soon.
I strongly agree with you in regards to GOP leadership. The GOP establishment does recognize that the nation changed a lot demographically since the 1980s, but they fail or perhaps choose not to acknowledge that the priorities of the voters have changed and the GOP base has changed as well. Since 1988 the republican party has not won a majority of the vote except once in 2004.
The GOP until Romney kept running on the 1980s platform. It isn't a winning strategy anyone. I do think a time in the wilderness might help the GOP.
I strongly believe what would really help most is reforming campaign spending, Koch brothers and other GOP donors do not represent average republican voters and have a lot of influence over GOP candidates. GOP candidates spend a lot of time trying to appease both the donors and the voters and they end up in an impossible position.
The primaries also need to be more rigorous. Candidates like Marjorie Greene shouldn't be allowed to run on a Republican primary race in the first place.
Let also be honest, GOP has a problem with a significant chunk of its primary voters. They elect extremist that couldn't win a general contest.

I think it will be interesting to watch how Joe Biden governs and how he will handle different factions within his party.

[Rover]

Coal industry been struggling all around the world since the 1970s, it been happening in Northern France, southern Belgium, UK and in the Appalachia.

People are turning their back against coal for many reasons, back in 70s and 80s coal mines were becoming economically unviable and later the environmental issues were being taken seriously.

Coal mining also been proven deeply harmful to miners health-wise. Many miners were contracting pneumoconiosis, silicosis, diffuse fibrosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. I watched a documentary a while ago of old miners in France discussing the health impacts breathing all toxic fumes did to their lungs and health, none of them wanted their kids to follow suit and work in the mines.

Sad thing, much of those mining communities won't ever recover, those mining towns were built around coal. Once the mines are closed the community falls apart, young people move away for better job opportunities and old people are left behind.
Unless a new industry is established, there is no future to appalachian coalfield towns. This is not unique to the coal industry. It been happening to other industries, i.e. the copper industry in michigan peninsula, the iron ores of Northern minnesota. Once the industry is gone, all is left are ghost towns.

There is no future for coal and once Joe Biden gets elected we will join the Paris accord again, many environmental regulations will have to be imposed causing many coal mines to close.
I don't agree with Hillary Clinton, particularly don't agree with how she said “We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business". But I do agree with her in investing heavily with renewable and green energy in the Appalachia.

[Rover]

Ronald Reagan fought unfair trade practices by imposing import quotas on steel, machine tools and Japanese cars, and using a 50 percent tariff to save Harley-Davidson. But like OSR already alluded that doesn't make him an anti-free trade. Sometimes you have to use protectionist means to enhance free trade.

The biggest flow in Reagans presidency is his educational policy. This been a massive issue for the GOP. W Bush tried to do something with no child left behind, the act was rushed, it became a quick fix rather than a long term solution.
Of course teachers unions are a major obstucle to any meaningful reform.

[Rover]

@DeadPrez
You raise good points, but regarding balancing the budget, I don't think the GOP are interested in balancing the budget.
I was born in 1990, in my lifetime the budget was balanced under Clinton in the 1990s. Then Bush came the surplus turned into a deficit. Obama reduced the deficit, Trump came and the deficit went up again.
GOP tried to cut spending, Bush seriously tried to privatize social security but he failed. The military eats up a large portion of the budget and for the GOP cutting the military budget is a big no-no.
Trump introduced unpaid-for tax cuts, that saw the deficit go up again.
Ironically for all talk of fiscal responsibility from the GOP, the Democrats have been more fiscally responsible than the GOP in the past 30 years.

If the GOP are serious about balancing the budget, then the party needs to embrace raising taxes on the wealthy and the upper-middle classes.
The military budget needs to be cut. Pentagon more than once recommended the number of bases in the mainland should be reduced, but many congress members been resisting such cuts, those cuts would save billions of $$$.

Pentagon Proposes Closing Almost 180 U.S. Military Bases
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/pentagon-proposes-closing-almost-180-u-s-military-bases

Base closings ‘hot potato’ issue again as Pentagon insists new round could save tens of billions
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/14/base-closings-hot-potato-issue-again-as-pentagon-insists-new-round-could-save-tens-of-billions.html

Plans for a new base closing round may be running out of time: Report
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/08/15/plans-for-a-new-base-closing-round-may-be-running-out-of-time-report/

Neither are gonna be easy choices. But cutting things like education, healthcare, or disability benefits are deeply unpopular with the public.

GOP obsession with tax cuts has become a problem. Tax cuts aren't as popular as they used to be, Trump tax cuts didn't change public opinion and they're blowing up the deficit.

[Rover]

@DeadPrez
You raise good points, but regarding balancing the budget, I don't think the GOP are interested in balancing the budget.
I was born in 1990, in my lifetime the budget was balanced under Clinton in the 1990s. Then Bush came the surplus turned into a deficit. Obama reduced the deficit, Trump came and the deficit went up again.
GOP tried to cut spending, Bush seriously tried to privatize social security but he failed. The military eats up a large portion of the budget and for the GOP cutting the military budget is a big no-no.
Trump introduced unpaid-for tax cuts, that saw the deficit go up again.
Ironically for all talk of fiscal responsibility from the GOP, the Democrats have been more fiscally responsible than the GOP in the past 30 years.

If the GOP are serious about balancing the budget, then the party needs to embrace raising taxes on the wealthy and the upper-middle classes.
The military budget needs to be cut. Pentagon more than once recommended the number of bases in the mainland should be reduced, but many congress members been resisting such cuts, those cuts would save billions of $$$.

Pentagon Proposes Closing Almost 180 U.S. Military Bases
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/pentagon-proposes-closing-almost-180-u-s-military-bases

Base closings ‘hot potato’ issue again as Pentagon insists new round could save tens of billions
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/14/base-closings-hot-potato-issue-again-as-pentagon-insists-new-round-could-save-tens-of-billions.html

Plans for a new base closing round may be running out of time: Report
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/08/15/plans-for-a-new-base-closing-round-may-be-running-out-of-time-report/

Neither are gonna be easy choices. But cutting things like education, healthcare, or disability benefits are deeply unpopular with the public.

GOP obsession with tax cuts has become a problem. Tax cuts aren't as popular as they used to be, Trump tax cuts didn't change public opinion and they're blowing up the deficit.

I agree with what I bolded. It's the unholy alliance between the left and right in order to prevent budget cuts. Both get what they want: entitlement spending and military spending.

I don't agree Dems are better at balancing the budget. With Clinton, i must be stressed that the GOP forced him to balance the budget. The GOP rejected every budget Clinton proposed that would have increased deficits. And Obama didn't cut spending. Check the numbers again. Even when you ignore the stimulus, he increased spending.

Certainly, I'd agree with you that the Republican congress was responsible for balancing the budget, It's one of the reasons why I voted for John Kasich in 2016 primaries, he was the house budget committee chairman. Of course, it was much easier to balance the books when the economy was booming in the 1990s.
Regarding Obama, the deficit did in fact go down, he didn't impose major cuts, but he did raise taxes. And the economy was growing hence budget revenue increased. The graph shows the budget deficit since 1981.

[Rover]

@DeadPrez
You raise good points, but regarding balancing the budget, I don't think the GOP are interested in balancing the budget.
I was born in 1990, in my lifetime the budget was balanced under Clinton in the 1990s. Then Bush came the surplus turned into a deficit. Obama reduced the deficit, Trump came and the deficit went up again.
GOP tried to cut spending, Bush seriously tried to privatize social security but he failed. The military eats up a large portion of the budget and for the GOP cutting the military budget is a big no-no.
Trump introduced unpaid-for tax cuts, that saw the deficit go up again.
Ironically for all talk of fiscal responsibility from the GOP, the Democrats have been more fiscally responsible than the GOP in the past 30 years.

If the GOP are serious about balancing the budget, then the party needs to embrace raising taxes on the wealthy and the upper-middle classes.
The military budget needs to be cut. Pentagon more than once recommended the number of bases in the mainland should be reduced, but many congress members been resisting such cuts, those cuts would save billions of $$$.

Pentagon Proposes Closing Almost 180 U.S. Military Bases
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/pentagon-proposes-closing-almost-180-u-s-military-bases

Base closings ‘hot potato’ issue again as Pentagon insists new round could save tens of billions
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/14/base-closings-hot-potato-issue-again-as-pentagon-insists-new-round-could-save-tens-of-billions.html

Plans for a new base closing round may be running out of time: Report
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/08/15/plans-for-a-new-base-closing-round-may-be-running-out-of-time-report/

Neither are gonna be easy choices. But cutting things like education, healthcare, or disability benefits are deeply unpopular with the public.

GOP obsession with tax cuts has become a problem. Tax cuts aren't as popular as they used to be, Trump tax cuts didn't change public opinion and they're blowing up the deficit.

I agree with what I bolded. It's the unholy alliance between the left and right in order to prevent budget cuts. Both get what they want: entitlement spending and military spending.

I don't agree Dems are better at balancing the budget. With Clinton, i must be stressed that the GOP forced him to balance the budget. The GOP rejected every budget Clinton proposed that would have increased deficits. And Obama didn't cut spending. Check the numbers again. Even when you ignore the stimulus, he increased spending.

Certainly, I'd agree with you that the Republican congress was responsible for balancing the budget, It's one of the reasons why I voted for John Kasich in 2016 primaries, he was the house budget committee chairman. Of course, it was much easier to balance the books when the economy was booming in the 1990s.
Regarding Obama, the deficit did in fact go down, he didn't impose major cuts, but he did raise taxes. And the economy was growing hence budget revenue increased. The graph shows the budget deficit since 1981.

Look at the actual numbers. Remove the fact that the stimulus occurred and you will see deficits rose under Obama. The first deficit he had was over 600 billion. That's more than any year for Bush

That is true but the deficit went up due to many factors, including decisions taken by Obama during 2008-2010 but it also increased due to the fallout of the recession.
In all fairness to Obama he did inherent a dreadful economic situation from Bush, many tough decisions had to be taken during obamas first term, the stimulus package sadly wasn't successful.
I honestly believe had McCain won he would've bailed out the auto industry and passed some form a stimulus package. Such decisions would see the deficit increase.
North of the border in Canada the Canadian Prime minister Stephen Harper bailed out the automobiles, even though Canada wasn't hit hard by the 2008 financial crisis like us.

[Rover]

@DeadPrez
You raise good points, but regarding balancing the budget, I don't think the GOP are interested in balancing the budget.
I was born in 1990, in my lifetime the budget was balanced under Clinton in the 1990s. Then Bush came the surplus turned into a deficit. Obama reduced the deficit, Trump came and the deficit went up again.
GOP tried to cut spending, Bush seriously tried to privatize social security but he failed. The military eats up a large portion of the budget and for the GOP cutting the military budget is a big no-no.
Trump introduced unpaid-for tax cuts, that saw the deficit go up again.
Ironically for all talk of fiscal responsibility from the GOP, the Democrats have been more fiscally responsible than the GOP in the past 30 years.

If the GOP are serious about balancing the budget, then the party needs to embrace raising taxes on the wealthy and the upper-middle classes.
The military budget needs to be cut. Pentagon more than once recommended the number of bases in the mainland should be reduced, but many congress members been resisting such cuts, those cuts would save billions of $$$.

Pentagon Proposes Closing Almost 180 U.S. Military Bases
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/pentagon-proposes-closing-almost-180-u-s-military-bases

Base closings ‘hot potato’ issue again as Pentagon insists new round could save tens of billions
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/14/base-closings-hot-potato-issue-again-as-pentagon-insists-new-round-could-save-tens-of-billions.html

Plans for a new base closing round may be running out of time: Report
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/08/15/plans-for-a-new-base-closing-round-may-be-running-out-of-time-report/

Neither are gonna be easy choices. But cutting things like education, healthcare, or disability benefits are deeply unpopular with the public.

GOP obsession with tax cuts has become a problem. Tax cuts aren't as popular as they used to be, Trump tax cuts didn't change public opinion and they're blowing up the deficit.

I agree with what I bolded. It's the unholy alliance between the left and right in order to prevent budget cuts. Both get what they want: entitlement spending and military spending.

I don't agree Dems are better at balancing the budget. With Clinton, i must be stressed that the GOP forced him to balance the budget. The GOP rejected every budget Clinton proposed that would have increased deficits. And Obama didn't cut spending. Check the numbers again. Even when you ignore the stimulus, he increased spending.

Certainly, I'd agree with you that the Republican congress was responsible for balancing the budget, It's one of the reasons why I voted for John Kasich in 2016 primaries, he was the house budget committee chairman. Of course, it was much easier to balance the books when the economy was booming in the 1990s.
Regarding Obama, the deficit did in fact go down, he didn't impose major cuts, but he did raise taxes. And the economy was growing hence budget revenue increased. The graph shows the budget deficit since 1981.

Look at the actual numbers. Remove the fact that the stimulus occurred and you will see deficits rose under Obama. The first deficit he had was over 600 billion. That's more than any year for Bush

That is true but the deficit went up due to many factors, including decisions taken by Obama during 2008-2010 but it also increased due to the fallout of the recession.
In all fairness to Obama he did inherent a dreadful economic situation from Bush, many tough decisions had to be taken during obamas first term, the stimulus package sadly wasn't successful.
I honestly believe had McCain won he would've bailed out the auto industry and passed some form a stimulus package. Such decisions would see the deficit increase.
North of the border in Canada the Canadian Prime minister Stephen Harper bailed out the automobiles, even though Canada wasn't hit hard by the 2008 financial crisis like us.

Clinton is as much to blame as Bush as is both parties in Congress for the 2008 Financial crisis. The derivatives that caused the exposure financially to so many firms were legalized in the late 1990s via the Commodities Futures Modernization Act. Passed in the dead of night by voice vote and signed into law by Bill Clinton. The legalization of Mortgage Backed Securities, the repeal of glass steagal, the pushing of bad mortgages by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, all had their beginnings in the 1990s. It is true that Bush's ownership society push combined with Greenspan's low interest rates played a role in stoking the blaze, but as far back as 2003 Bush, McCain and others tried to reign in Fannie and Freddie only to be blocked by Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and Hillary Clinton. Then in 2008 they turn around an demand to know why Bush hadn't acted sooner. Dodd was also implicated in the Countrywide Financial scandal at the same time, where had received a loan at sub market rates, along with a few others. This combined with his essentially abandoning Connecticut in 2007 to camp out in Iowa, iis why for most of 2009 Rob Simmons was considered a likely pickup in CT for the Republicans. But Dodd dropped out and Simmons got outspent by Linda McMahon in the primary.

I just noticed your replay.
Many of those reforms had the support of the GOP in Congress. Republicans pushed hard for repeal of glass steagal. Bill Clinton signed them into law.
Much like NAFTA, it was heavily negotiated by George H Bush, Clinton made minor tweaks and signed it into law.