Elizabeth Warren 2020 Megathread v2 (pg 35 - Emily List support)

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1200367457916968961

 This is why you can't sleep on Warren.

It doesn't mean that they'll specifically vote for her though. If there's one thing I ascribe to it's that most Americans are indeed in favor of most liberal or progressive policies but will draw the line when it comes to voting for a liberal or progressive candidate. It demonstrates how superficial our politics are-driven more by personality than by policy or practicality.

[GP270watch]

 Not all of them have to vote for her just a few, we are so polarized that small shifts in turnout or swing votes can make a big difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden ended the Harris movement and Buttigieg ended the Warren movement

[GP270watch]

 I think reports of Elizabeth Warren political demise have been greatly exaggerated. She's most likely going to win the Democratic Party nomination.

[Shadows]

Warren down to 12% in MC Early State Polls (Biden 25%, Bernie 20% Pete 13%). She is now 4th. Nationally she has fallen to 15% but the Early State numbers have fallen much more dramatically & are ominous. While Warren falls 6% in Early States, Pete gets 5%.

Personally I think the fall is likely much more bigger in Iowa & NH with Pete probably gaining 10-12% in both @ the expense of Warren given Pete's poor numbers in NV or SC.

She really has to turn it around soon, possibly ace the next debates.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Warren down to 12% in MC Early State Polls (Biden 25%, Bernie 20% Pete 13%). She is now 4th. Nationally she has fallen to 15% but the Early State numbers have fallen much more dramatically & are ominous. While Warren falls 6% in Early States, Pete gets 5%.

Personally I think the fall is likely much more bigger in Iowa & NH with Pete probably gaining 10-12% in both @ the expense of Warren given Pete's poor numbers in NV or SC.

She really has to turn it around soon, possibly ace the next debates.

We're still two months from the first votes.  Most voters are only now starting to pay attention, and I suspect Buttigieg is just the flavor of moment.  If his surge ends, all those wine-track voters will likely move back into the Warren column.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren is done, they said the same thing about Harris was temporarily down. If you look at the Super Tuesday states, they favor Biden and always have been. Only Biden and Harris can win substantially, AA and Latinos voters, that's why Biden is way ahead in Cali. Most people in Cali have stopped supporting Warren and have Biden signs

I will continue my boycott of donations to Biden campaign, but will give donations to Kennedy and Bollier, the winners of 2020

[GoTfan]

Warren down to 12% in MC Early State Polls (Biden 25%, Bernie 20% Pete 13%). She is now 4th. Nationally she has fallen to 15% but the Early State numbers have fallen much more dramatically & are ominous. While Warren falls 6% in Early States, Pete gets 5%.

Personally I think the fall is likely much more bigger in Iowa & NH with Pete probably gaining 10-12% in both @ the expense of Warren given Pete's poor numbers in NV or SC.

She really has to turn it around soon, possibly ace the next debates.

We're still two months from the first votes.  Most voters are only now starting to pay attention, and I suspect Buttigieg is just the flavor of moment.  If his surge ends, all those wine-track voters will likely move back into the Warren column.

Problem is that Buttigieg hasn't really been scrutinised at all because the media adores him.

[KaiserDave]

Any chance of picking up Harris supporters?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1200367457916968961

 This is why you can't sleep on Warren.

It doesn't mean that they'll specifically vote for her though. If there's one thing I ascribe to it's that most Americans are indeed in favor of most liberal or progressive policies but will draw the line when it comes to voting for a liberal or progressive candidate. It demonstrates how superficial our politics are-driven more by personality than by policy or practicality.

Or that a lot of people support a few progressive policies, but oppose a platform that combines many progressive policies together.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Any chance of picking up Harris supporters?

I think she will definitely win at least some of them. Just look at James Monroe as an example.

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1200367457916968961

 This is why you can't sleep on Warren.

It doesn't mean that they'll specifically vote for her though. If there's one thing I ascribe to it's that most Americans are indeed in favor of most liberal or progressive policies but will draw the line when it comes to voting for a liberal or progressive candidate. It demonstrates how superficial our politics are-driven more by personality than by policy or practicality.

Or that a lot of people support a few progressive policies, but oppose a platform that combines many progressive policies together.

That's actually a pretty good observation. That definitely could be also.

[Shadows]

Harris was @ 2-3% odd nationally & has very little support in Iowa & NH. Monrning Consult stopped reporting her 2nd choice. Even if Warren gets 30-40% of those supporters, it is a less than 1% bump for her & even lower in Iowa & NH.

[Blue3]

I thought Warren was doing poorly because she tried to moderate, saying public option first then M4A a few years later.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I thought Warren was doing poorly because she tried to moderate, saying public option first then M4A a few years later.

You've got this backwards.  It was her earlier moderation on health care that was elevating her for a while.  Being committed to M4A in principle while being comically vague on the specifics is actually the wishy-washy "moderate" position (it's working for Sanders!), and Warren's decision to treat M4A as a real policy to be enacted and not just a slogan to campaign on was a terrible decision, electorally speaking.  It's frustrating because her M4A plan is actually impressively pragmatic and maybe even doable, but in going farthest left on this issue she torpedoed a lot of her crossover appeal.  It's doubly frustrating because Warren clearly doesn't see health care as the top priority and would much rather be talking about her proposed anti-corruption measures.

Warren can still recover and may yet win the nomination, but bowing to pressure and releasing a plan for M4A, even a good plan, was a mistake.

[GP270watch]

 She hasn't made any real mistakes on Healthcare except being realistic and detailed. There's an old saying that's attributed to Reagan about politics that "When you're explaining, you're losing."

 But Warren doesn't care she's not going to win because she's the most likable, or charismatic, or most ideological pure. Her brand is diagnosing big structural problems, finding solutions, and navigating those fixes through a resistant and awful bureaucracy that's almost entirely owned by the few and powerful. That is how she wins, that's how she persisted when people wrote off her campaign in the past.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

She hasn't made any real mistakes on Healthcare except being realistic and detailed. There's an old saying that's attributed to Reagan about politics that "When you're explaining, you're losing."

 But Warren doesn't care she's not going to win because she's the most likable, or charismatic, or most ideological pure. Her brand is diagnosing big structural problems, finding solutions, and navigating those fixes through a resistant and awful bureaucracy that's almost entirely owned by the few and powerful. That is how she wins, that's how she persisted when people wrote off her campaign in the past.

Her mistake was to be unrealistic and detailed.

[GP270watch]

 Not true, it is reality that many other developed nations have universal healthcare provided primarily by the government or so heavily regulated that they control costs and spend less per capita than The United States. That is the reality no matter what opponents of single payer healthcare might want it to be.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So what was she supposed to do?  Not have a plan? Then people would be screeching about how she wants medicare for all doesnt have a plan to pay for it. Damned if you do damned if you dont

[Pericles]

Any chance of picking up Harris supporters?

Buttigieg and Warren probably get the biggest shares of Harris supporters.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

She hasn't made any real mistakes on Healthcare except being realistic and detailed. There's an old saying that's attributed to Reagan about politics that "When you're explaining, you're losing."

Well, Reagan was running as Republican, so that makes sense.

[Heebie Jeebie]

So what was she supposed to do?  Not have a plan? Then people would be screeching about how she wants medicare for all doesnt have a plan to pay for it. Damned if you do damned if you dont

The only reason she fully embraced M4A to begin with is that she correctly calculated that she'd eventually need to win over Sanders's supporters if she wants the nomination.  But to accomplish that, she didn't need to go any further on the issue than Sanders was willing to go. Even Sanders recognizes that M4A is a political loser if you treat it as an actual policy idea and not just a campaign slogan. Warren's mistake was not being as cynical as Sanders.

[redjohn]

What's Warren's path after losing IA, NH, NV, and SC? Her campaign's best hope is to somehow pull out NH, which I doubt happens if she comes in third in Iowa. If she can't do that, though, she probably loses every Super Tuesday state besides Massachusetts. It's conceivable she wins Maine, but beyond that I don't think she has a good shot in any other states. If she doesn't win either of the first two contests I think her campaign is over.

[jacobmeteorite]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1201456502520852481

I truly believe moments like this will win her the presidency.

[GoTfan]

What's Warren's path after losing IA, NH, NV, and SC? Her campaign's best hope is to somehow pull out NH, which I doubt happens if she comes in third in Iowa. If she can't do that, though, she probably loses every Super Tuesday state besides Massachusetts. It's conceivable she wins Maine, but beyond that I don't think she has a good shot in any other states. If she doesn't win either of the first two contests I think her campaign is over.

Her campaign rested on stealing Sanders' thunder, which was always going to be a tall order. That plainly hasn't happened.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1201456502520852481

I truly believe moments like this will win her the presidency.

I'm not so sure about that. It's a very touching moment, but empathy doesn't seem to sell well to the general voting populace anymore.