Rasmussen: TX Gov - Perry leads Strayhorn by 19%; Bell trails Strayhorn by 7%
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  Rasmussen: TX Gov - Perry leads Strayhorn by 19%; Bell trails Strayhorn by 7%
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: TX Gov - Perry leads Strayhorn by 19%; Bell trails Strayhorn by 7%  (Read 1174 times)
Adlai Stevenson
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« on: January 10, 2006, 12:12:53 PM »

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Texas%20Governor%20January%205.htm

Perry (R) - 40%
Strayhorn (I) - 21%
Bell (D) - 14%
Friedman (I) - 12%

I thought Perry might actually win a majority of the vote but it appears unlikely.  If only Strayhorn was a Democrat.  Also, will Strayhorn beat Bell in the end?  Will even Friedman beat Bell?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2006, 12:19:29 PM »

GO KINKY!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2006, 02:33:15 PM »

Here's the issue:

Perry's 40% is the social conservative, mostly Republican group in Texas and is rock-solid behind him.  The chances of them moving anywhere else is very low at this point, if my known reports are correct.

Strayhorn is stealing roughly 17% of Republicans from Perry according to this poll.  If typical Republican numbers in the state are represented in the poll, that means 8% of the total vote.  13% of her vote is therefore coming from Independents/Democrats.

Kinky is going to be stealing mainly from Bell or another Democrat in the race.  The numbers don't say much on this, but it's fairly obvious.

So, unless one of the other three candidates can start tons of votes from the other two candidates (unlikely) or starts stealing votes from Perry (which would do much more), the race is still essentially Perry's at this point.

As I've said before, Independent candidacy requirements are very tough to meet in Texas, so the possibility of one of the two I's dropping out is higher than normal.

If Kinky drops out, it will help the Democrat immensely to potentially have a chance to win, though it would also help Strayhorn.

If Strayhorn drops out, it will cement Perry in the race.

If both drop out, Perry wins easily.  That is very unlikely to happen, imo.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2006, 03:45:20 PM »

So is there a tiny, tiny chance that it could become competitive if Friedman disappeared?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2006, 04:24:01 PM »

Is there a runoff if noone wins a majority or is that just for primaries?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2006, 07:13:23 PM »

So is there a tiny, tiny chance that it could become competitive if Friedman disappeared?

IMO there's more than a tiny, tiny chance if that happened, but that's what would have to happen, and I've been saying it for a while.

Is there a runoff if noone wins a majority or is that just for primaries?

No runoff in the general for anything, yes runoff for primaries.  The Democrat primary is the only one with a real chance of a runoff.
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