Which governorships are pretty much unwinnable for either major party?

[Orser67]

In light of questions regarding whether Democrats could ever win in MS following Jim Hood's defeat, I was wondering about which states are pretty much only winnable for one party in gubernatorial elections. As a semi-objective starting point, I made this map of states colored red or blue in which:

*The last two gubernatorial elections were won by the same party by a margin of at least 5 percent
*Trump or Clinton won by at least 5 points in 2016
*Both senators are members of the dominant party
*The last two Senate races were won by the same party by a margin of at least 5 percent

[Orser67]

This is what I'm thinking. I'm probably using a somewhat more stringent definition of "unwinnable" than other posters have so far.

[Orser67]

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.

That may be true about Maryland, but I did say "pretty much unwinnable". So e.g. would the party still be unable to win a gubernatorial election even when it benefits from:

*A good national environment
*A particularly strong candidate
*A particularly weak (but not necessarily Roy Moore-level) opponent
*The opposing party's unpopularity in the state for whatever reason (e.g. Sam Brownback dragging down Republicans in KS in 2018)

[Orser67]

The ones with presidential-year elections are now effectively gone for whatever the state's structurally non-presidential party is.

I don't think you can write off all those states as noncompetitive. 2016 saw Republicans win VT, and Democrats win WV and MT. MO, IN, and OR all saw fairly close races.