Which governorships are pretty much unwinnable for either major party?
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  Which governorships are pretty much unwinnable for either major party?
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Author Topic: Which governorships are pretty much unwinnable for either major party?  (Read 1959 times)
Orser67
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« on: November 14, 2019, 03:40:56 PM »
« edited: November 14, 2019, 06:03:44 PM by Orser67 »

In light of questions regarding whether Democrats could ever win in MS following Jim Hood's defeat, I was wondering about which states are pretty much only winnable for one party in gubernatorial elections. As a semi-objective starting point, I made this map of states colored red or blue in which:

*The last two gubernatorial elections were won by the same party by a margin of at least 5 percent
*Trump or Clinton won by at least 5 points in 2016
*Both senators are members of the dominant party
*The last two Senate races were won by the same party by a margin of at least 5 percent

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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2019, 03:45:46 PM »

I think Oregon is winnable for Republicans and Alabama unwinnable for Democrats, but otherwise I agree with the map.
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OBD
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2019, 03:48:46 PM »

I think Oregon is winnable for Republicans and Alabama unwinnable for Democrats, but otherwise I agree with the map.
Agreed, though some states like Indiana are becoming more and more unwinnable for the minority party.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2019, 03:58:03 PM »

While Washington gubernatorial races tend to be closer, I'd add it to the map, at this point. McKenna was by far the best candidate Republicans could have run, and he still lost. Yes, by under 5, but it wasn't by less than 1%, either. While Kim Wyman might be able to keep it close, I really don't even see her pulling it off.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2019, 03:59:40 PM »

I think Oregon is winnable for Republicans and Alabama unwinnable for Democrats, but otherwise I agree with the map.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2019, 04:10:09 PM »

Make OR winnable and flip AL/MS and I agree
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2019, 04:46:23 PM »

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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2019, 06:11:13 PM »

This is what I'm thinking. I'm probably using a somewhat more stringent definition of "unwinnable" than other posters have so far.

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2019, 06:22:08 PM »

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2019, 08:09:16 PM »

*Clears throat*

Democrats: Florida.

That is all.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2019, 09:19:55 PM »


Not sure that Virginia is unwinnable yet for Republicans, though it is headed that way. But I can see where you're going with Colorado. The Republicans have lost four straight gubernatorial elections here in a row, and the last Republican victory was in 2002 with Bill Owens. Owens is also the only Republican Governor that Colorado has had in the last 44 years, since 1975. Given Colorado's ongoing transition into a Safe Democratic state, I don't see the drought being broken anytime soon.
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Galeel
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« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2019, 10:59:15 AM »

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2019, 11:03:39 AM »

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.

There is some validity to this. Wyoming, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas all had Democratic governors as recently as 2010; only in this decade have they moved "beyond reach" for the Democrats. California and New York, likewise, had Republican governors during the last decade, and Chris Christie just left office in New Jersey a few years ago. But other states have had a much longer drought: Oregon hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1982, and South Dakota last elected a Democratic governor in 1974.
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Galeel
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« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2019, 11:13:58 AM »

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.

There is some validity to this. Wyoming, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas all had Democratic governors as recently as 2010; only in this decade have they moved "beyond reach" for the Democrats. California and New York, likewise, had Republican governors during the last decade, and Chris Christie just left office in New Jersey a few years ago. But other states have had a much longer drought: Oregon hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1982, and South Dakota last elected a Democratic governor in 1974.

It's true that some states have had a longer drought, but that's just a coincidence. Oregon came pretty close to electing a Republican in 2018, and South Dakota almost elected a Democrat. There are enough examples of deep blue states electing republican governors and deep red states electing democratic governors that I am confident in saying it is possible everywhere.
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Orser67
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« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2019, 11:51:58 AM »

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.

That may be true about Maryland, but I did say "pretty much unwinnable". So e.g. would the party still be unable to win a gubernatorial election even when it benefits from:

*A good national environment
*A particularly strong candidate
*A particularly weak (but not necessarily Roy Moore-level) opponent
*The opposing party's unpopularity in the state for whatever reason (e.g. Sam Brownback dragging down Republicans in KS in 2018)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2019, 12:25:13 PM »

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Joseph Cao
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« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2019, 07:31:31 AM »

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.

That may be true about Maryland, but I did say "pretty much unwinnable". So e.g. would the party still be unable to win a gubernatorial election even when it benefits from:

*A good national environment
*A particularly strong candidate
*A particularly weak (but not necessarily Roy Moore-level) opponent
*The opposing party's unpopularity in the state for whatever reason (e.g. Sam Brownback dragging down Republicans in KS in 2018)

Taking this into account, I’d substitute Washington for Oregon on your map, add Alabama, and maaaaybe strike Delaware or South Carolina. I could see either of those last two being won by the minority party at the state level given, say, a Kobach–like majority–party candidate, a Billie Suttonesque minority–party candidate, and a favourable national environment.
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2019, 07:57:52 AM »

I don't see Republicans winning CA or NY anytime soon. Probably WA and OR as well.

On the Dem side, WY, ID, UT, TN, OK (inb4 IceSpear), AR, AL, NE, ND.
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Sol
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« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2019, 10:23:03 AM »

Every state is winnable for both parties. If it wasn't for Larry Hogan, everyone would have Maryland on this list, but they have a Republican governor.

This. Of course it's easier than in others, but if Doug Jones can win AL-Sen anyone can win anywhere in the right circumstances.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2019, 07:46:59 PM »

As my map indicate, IL MN, NM, CO, NY, CA, WA, PA, NJ and Va for Dems and FL, GA, SC, TN, TX, OH, UT, IN, MO, WY, OK for the Rs


AZ, IA, NH, MD, VT are pickups for Dems in 2022
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2019, 12:29:39 PM »


This, plus I'd add Virginia in the Democratic column at this point. I can't see the GOP winning it any time soon.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2019, 01:31:27 PM »

None. There is no state that is unwinnable for either major party at the gubernatorial level. If California  Or Maryland can have a Republican Governor than Republicans can win anywhere, and if Doug Jones can win in Alabama (in a senate election no less) than Democrats can win anywhere. Governor elections are just naturally less polarized and can more easily attract moderate candidates from the opposing party that have strong bipartisan appeal.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2019, 01:59:20 PM »

None. There is no state that is unwinnable for either major party at the gubernatorial level. If California  Or Maryland can have a Republican Governor than Republicans can win anywhere, and if Doug Jones can win in Alabama (in a senate election no less) than Democrats can win anywhere. Governor elections are just naturally less polarized and can more easily attract moderate candidates from the opposing party that have strong bipartisan appeal.

California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2006, which is an eternity in politics. Also, there are several Republican states with more unfavorable demographics for Democrats than AL, which at least has a solid black and urban base (and to a lesser extent favorable suburban trends) for Democrats to build upon. Just because Democrats (narrowly) won a special election in Alabama doesn’t mean that they can realistically expect to win ND and AR in a regular year.

You have a point about Hogan, but I’d argue there are Democratic states which have a more unpersuadable and radicalized Democratic electorate which isn’t going to consider voting for any Republican under any circumstances.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2019, 06:14:39 PM »

The ones with presidential-year elections are now effectively gone for whatever the state's structurally non-presidential party is.

There isn't going to be a Republican governor in Washington any time soon, or a Democratic governor in North Dakota.
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Orser67
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« Reply #24 on: November 23, 2019, 12:16:57 PM »

The ones with presidential-year elections are now effectively gone for whatever the state's structurally non-presidential party is.

I don't think you can write off all those states as noncompetitive. 2016 saw Republicans win VT, and Democrats win WV and MT. MO, IN, and OR all saw fairly close races.
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