IA-University of Iowa: Warren leads Sanders, Buttigieg, and Biden 23-18-16-15

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 465 likely voters, conducted October 28th to November 10th.

Warren — 23%
Sanders — 18%
Buttigieg — 16%
Biden — 15%
Yang — 3%
Gabbard — 3%
Steyer — 3%
Harris — 2%
Klobuchar — 1%
Castro — 1%
Booker — 0%
O'Rourke — 0%
Delaney — 0%
Bennet — 0%
Bullock — 0%
Ryan — 0%

https://clas.uiowa.edu/polisci/sites/clas.uiowa.edu.polisci/files/Hawkeye%20Poll%20(Nov%202019)%20-%20Iowa%20Democratic%20Caucuses%20-%20topline.pdf

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I prefer this one

[eric82oslo]

Most of this poll was conducted before the Yang campaign spent massively on TV ads in Iowa. Adds which are still running, and might be extended with another week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a shame Biden is having so much trouble in IA and it's a swing state

[Beet]

First and second choice:

Warren 46%
Sanders 34%
Buttigieg 27%
Biden 23%
Harris 10%
Klobuchar 7%

[Shadows]

Most of this poll was conducted before the Yang campaign spent massively on TV ads in Iowa. Adds which are still running, and might be extended with another week.

He is not getting 15% so most of his & Gabbard's votes will go to Bernie after not meeting the 15% limit.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I'm cool with this as well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden may lose IA and NH, but when he goes to NV, SC, where Latinos are: he will secure the nomination.  Latinos and AA who flirted with Harris in Cali love Biden here.

[Pollster]

This poll was in the field way too long, and MOE is high here (about the same as Monmouth's 4.7%) but confirms the trends we are seeing: basically a tied race for first, Biden in genuine danger of inviability.

[eric82oslo]

Most of this poll was conducted before the Yang campaign spent massively on TV ads in Iowa. Adds which are still running, and might be extended with another week.

He is not getting 15% so most of his & Gabbard's votes will go to Bernie after not meeting the 15% limit.

Yang Week is in early January (starting on the 5th) when thousands of YangGangers from all across the US will crisscross every single one of the 99 Iowa counties to spread the word. (https://yangweek.org/) This will include at least a couple of big name celebrities as well. Those who think Yang is already doomed in Iowa, don't know what they're talking about. He will peak at the right time, which means during the month of January, not sooner.

[Eraserhead]

RCP hasn't added this one (yet) unfortunately.

[Vosem]

Most of this poll was conducted before the Yang campaign spent massively on TV ads in Iowa. Adds which are still running, and might be extended with another week.

He is not getting 15% so most of his & Gabbard's votes will go to Bernie after not meeting the 15% limit.

Sure, but they aren't the only minor candidates. Polls that have broken out second-choices by where they come from have seen preferences flowing from minor candidates to Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders, followed by a wide gap, then Warren, then Biden. I don't know that it'd be enough to overcome a 5-point Warren lead; in fact I rather doubt this.