LA-Mason Dixon: Edwards +2

[Tender Branson]

https://www.ksla.com/2019/11/11/poll-louisiana-governors-race-tight-runoff-nears

Link got deleted for some reason ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

[Person Man]

He's improving. It's going to be close but he should be able to win.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Wow, who knew Eddie Rispone looks embalmed.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Mason-Dixon on 2019-11-11

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Xing]

It's gonna be close. A governor with a +16 approval rating shouldn't be in any danger of losing re-election, but the magic (R) is a powerful thing in red states. (Yes, I know it wasn't enough for Bevin to win, but still helped him enormously, given how unpopular he was.)

[Tender Branson]

Compared to the same poll a month ago, the Edwards lead is down from 9 to 2.

[2016]

Job Approval for Trump is KEY here. I haven't seen it.

Prediction: If the Presidents JA is at 60% or above Rispone is going to squeak this out otherwise JBE wins.

[Bidenworth2020]

Not looking good for Edwards, tbh.

[Frenchrepublican]

Close to what I expected. The early voting trends are good for Edwards, especially the strong black turnout, the big question is if democrats have simply cannibalized voting day voters or if these voters are new ones who didn’t vote in the primary

[jamestroll]

Look at my new username

[cvparty]

what even is the edwards-rispone demographic

[Pericles]

That approval rating for JBE is good but not great, still I think he will win a close one.

[Canis]

what even is the edwards-rispone demographic

People who change their mind really quickly

[2016]

Crosstabs for this Poll (Finally)

https://media.graytvinc.com/documents/LA1119Poll.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, JBE +2 is pretty much my prediction, although I wouldn’t be too surprised by a very narrow Rispone victory. I don’t really see how Beshear's victory tells us anything about this race, and I think people are reading too much into the early vote.

[Adam Griffin]

If he actually gets a combined 6% of the GOP October vote and breaks even/slightly leads with non-primary voters, then he's on the verge of snagging this.

He probably needs 6 points more of the October-GOP vote than Rispone gets of the October-DEM vote to be secure (this poll shows him getting 4 points more; 6% versus 2%).

[Gone to Carolina]

Since I did this for KY figured I do it for LA as well.

Mason-Dixon Polling by Region v. Actual Results by Region

New Orleans Area -
- Mason-Dixon: Edwards +17
- Actual: Edwards +18.89

Baton Rouge Area -
- Mason-Dixon: Edwards +15
- Actual: Edwards +11.44

South Central LA -
- Mason-Dixon: Rispone +20
- Actual: Rispone +19.58

Northern LA -
- Mason-Dixon: Rispone +16
- Actual: Rispone +9.34

[MT Treasurer]

Mason Dixon has been excellent this year. Far and away the best pollster of this election cycle, which is even more impressive when you consider how difficult polling can be these days.

[Tender Branson]

Mason Dixon has been excellent this year. Far and away the best pollster of this election cycle, which is even more impressive when you consider how difficult polling can be these days.

Mason-Dixon has always been pretty solid in the South for decades.

I follow polls since 15 years now and even before that they had a good reputation there, but in the last years they produced hardly any polls or some flawed ones.

But now it seems they are back and they should be a good indicator for 2020.