2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Massachusetts

[Oryxslayer]

Massachusetts

After a heated discussion on what a fair Massachusetts map would look like in the congressional forum, I figured it would be appropriate if the Bay State was the next on the list to get covered in the redistricting forum. Now the question of what may constitute a fair district here may never get answered because Massachusetts redistricting has long been controlled by the overwhelming democratic supermajorities in the state legislature. These supermajorities and the states 9-0 are the product of a long geographic advantage that does not seem to be vanishing anytime soon. So no matter what happens, Baker and the Republicans can just watch and criticize the process from afar.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion.
 
Redistricting History

The 2000 Massachusetts redistricting was a closed-door affair. At the time there was still a chance of the GOP getting through if one of the districts wasn’t drawn to appropriate specifications. Almost every incumbent had been there for a good period of time, and had their own demands for the contours of the districts. This led to Democratic leadership drawing their own lines in secret and then handing them to Massachusetts redistricting committee right near the deadline to pass. Which they did.

Wikipedia map of Massachusetts Congressional Map from 2000 to 2010

2010 was therefore set up to be different. Everyone desired a more open affair with public input. The significant difference though was that Massachusetts was set to lose one house seat, and no incumbent wanting to throw in the towel. Going in every significant region set up interest groups to ensure that their region or seat was not the one that ended up getting the axe. This being Massachusetts, fair redistricting groups were there as well trying to influence the scene.


The two voices that ended up speaking the loudest were that of the minority community and Western Massachusetts. It would not be hard to make a majority minority district using Boston and the surrounding communities, and it turned out that such a district would end up on the final map.
There were two groups who were pushing such a seat: actual minority residents and the State GOP. Recently elected Senator Scott Brown (remember him?) submitted statements encouraging the creation of the minority seat with the intention of diluting the other deem seats. Unsurprisingly, this was not his own plan, alongside the NC redistricting files on Thomas Hofeller’s computer there was hypothetical plans for just such a seat.

Wikipedia map of the 2010 Massachusetts Congressional Map

But the mappers also took a peculiar interest in the western communities – the exact communities that were behind the population stagnation. The two representatives of the west, John Olver and Richard Neal, both Washington seniority and assignments arguing in their favor. They were both acutely aware of how the west would be losing a seat under a farer plan, and argued for two clear western seats. Olver’s late retirement brought the number of necessary incumbents to please down to 9, but the end map would still preserve the west’s dual representation. The great irony was that 8 days after the lines signed into law Barney Frank retired. He would later accuse the legislature of picking favorites when they took New Bedford and other south coast towns and gave them to Keating, who had previously relocated to his vacation address on the cape.

Since the 2011 Redistricting

The GOP’s gamble for the majority minority seat turned out to be a big self-own. No seats were gained, and the decision facilitated the separation of the deep-blue but white parts of Boston from the minority parts. Massachusetts is so blue that minority pack doesn’t rob the Dems of seats, and it even facilitated Pressley’s rise to congress. 

Instead what has happened is that the GOP failed to capitalize on the large pool of potential swing voters that were accessible to them, especially after every contentious democratic primary. The GOP made targets based on Brown and Baker’s results in certain seats and tended to leave the rest uncontested. Despite the GOP wave nationally, the Democrats got a larger share of the vote congressionally in 2014 purely because the GOP abandoned a bunch of seats. The one seat the GOP contested consistently was MA09, and Keating hasn’t been in truly serious danger any time. The problem for the republicans here is that getting over the democratic base and convincing swingy’er democrats to vote red is challenging enough, without even considering the the states trend towards a bandwagon effect, something that has benefiting Keating each time. The one time the GOP got close was when Tierney’s wife got convicted for tax fraud in and he tried to still run with the corruption allegations over his head. In the end, the GOP still couldn’t crack Massachusetts blue hue, only the democratic primary electorate could.

Four incumbents have so far survived from 2010: Neal, McGovern, Lynch, and Keating. Remarkably, they are all rather young for incumbents with their tenure.  I don’t see any of them retiring soon except maybe out of personal preference or if they get thrown under the bus when it comes time to map. Neal and Keating have drawn primary challengers before, but both have easily won reelection. Once again, Massachusetts displays its greater tendency to bandwagon when someone is inevitable.

2021

Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way: there is 0% chance of a commission. Such a change to redistricting law would require a constitutional amendment. Similar to Virginia constitutional change in Massachusetts requires action in dual sessions before being put to the voters. Therefore, there is simply not enough legal time for a commission to go into effect for this cycle. Fair districts, be they those that respect the states partisanship or it’s communities, are not going to happen. Despite this handicap, it should be expected that the legislature adopts ‘good-govt’ standards similar to what they did in 2010. Massachusetts is an activist state that would near unanimously approve a commission amendment if it made its way to the voters, so when overwhelming citizen pressure comes, the legislature will naturally give some ground. In 2010, these standards included: an open submission link, citizen panels, and a decision to avoid splitting towns or city neighborhoods when possible.

A Majority Minority 7th that takes in swingy'er suburbs than Somerville. Going to the south shore is hard because of Lynch's home address

Now the key to Massachusetts in 2020 is going to be unpacking both the 5th and the 7th. The 5th has only got more and more blue as the decade progressed, so it can lose some of its blue voters to fortify her northern neighbors. MA07 is even more peculiar. Now that an actual minority, Pressley, is in MA07 the seat can drop the Uber-Dem white bedroom towns to the north of Boston and pick up some less-than-safe blue towns either to the south or west. Boston’s non-white pop is actually growing, but it’s integrated into the white precincts – not stuck in the Dorchester region. This also gives the 5th even more space to maneuver, since the lost Somerville naturally fits into the northern seats. Kennedy’s old 4th should also be unpacked somewhat – the SW suburbs have gotten bluer and the district could be used to grab more rural red turf. 

The general base of districts shouldn’t be changing that much since incumbents will naturally want to preserve their loyal core of voters. The 1st should be in the west, the 2nd in the center, the 3rd in the Lowell-Lawrence region, the 4th in SW, the 5th in the suburbs, the 6th in Essex, the 7th in Boston, the 8th in the South Shore, and the 9th in the Cape and South Coast. However, the precise lines of these regional seats are up in the air. Every district should have no trouble hitting Clinton+20 over Trump at minimum if the right seats are unpacked. Only Keating really needs reinforcements, and Brockton is right there to lock down his seat. The guy’s house is on the cape, he should have nothing wrong with any lines as long as he keeps New Bedford, the Cape, and the Islands.

What’s left to decide

Will there be any successful primaries against the long-term incumbents? I doubt so, but maybe some gets through. Will anyone retire? None are old, or particularly long-serving. Therefore, the only real question is who succeeds Kennedy and from where. If the 4th keeps getting represented by the near suburbs like Brookline then the district is going to look very different from someone hailing from the SW.

[Skill and Chance]

I think there is a potential independent commission initiative in play in MA?

[TML]

It seems that this state is one of the tougher ones to cater to Republicans. 538's Atlas of Redistricting suggests that it is possible to create three districts which have a near-even PVI in favor of the Republicans, or create four swing districts with one being R-leaning and the other three being D-leaning. Other than that, it seems to be impossible to create any districts where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win.

[Nyvin]

It seems that this state is one of the tougher ones to cater to Republicans. 538's Atlas of Redistricting suggests that it is possible to create three districts which have a near-even PVI in favor of the Republicans, or create four swing districts with one being R-leaning and the other three being D-leaning. Other than that, it seems to be impossible to create any districts where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win.

You would need some REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting district lines to eek out four swing seats in Mass.

[TML]

It seems that this state is one of the tougher ones to cater to Republicans. 538's Atlas of Redistricting suggests that it is possible to create three districts which have a near-even PVI in favor of the Republicans, or create four swing districts with one being R-leaning and the other three being D-leaning. Other than that, it seems to be impossible to create any districts where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win.

You would need some REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting district lines to eek out four swing seats in Mass.

Would this be consider "REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting"?

[Oryxslayer]

It seems that this state is one of the tougher ones to cater to Republicans. 538's Atlas of Redistricting suggests that it is possible to create three districts which have a near-even PVI in favor of the Republicans, or create four swing districts with one being R-leaning and the other three being D-leaning. Other than that, it seems to be impossible to create any districts where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win.

You would need some REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting district lines to eek out four swing seats in Mass.

Would this be consider "REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting"?

All but one still tilt towards the democrats. That single one doesn't even tilt that much in their favor. it's notable that their "Max-R" map is also the same as "Highly-Competative." To actually get seats that would reliably elect R's for the long haul there would need to be a narrow connection through Wrentham at minimum.

[Nyvin]

It seems that this state is one of the tougher ones to cater to Republicans. 538's Atlas of Redistricting suggests that it is possible to create three districts which have a near-even PVI in favor of the Republicans, or create four swing districts with one being R-leaning and the other three being D-leaning. Other than that, it seems to be impossible to create any districts where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win.

You would need some REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting district lines to eek out four swing seats in Mass.

Would this be consider "REALLY crazy, snaky, twisting"?

Kinda hard to make out what they're doing there, but that Bristol seat is about Clinton +9 and the Essex seat is about Clinton +14 (give or take).     The Essex seat would most likely be unwinnable for Republicans since it's trending D.   The Bristol one would only flip in a wave environment for Republicans, maybe.

[Brittain33]

Putting Lowell and Worcester together is ballsy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So where is the residence of the person who won the primary in MA-04?

[Zaybay]

So where is the residence of the person who won the primary in MA-04?

Auchincloss lives and served as a city councilor in Newton. It's a large city that borders Boston in Middlesex county, so his district would have to keep the snake into the Boston suburbs.

Fun fact: Kennedy also lives in Newton, as did his predecessor Barney Frank.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So where is the residence of the person who won the primary in MA-04?

Auchincloss lives and served as a city councilor in Newton. It's a large city that borders Boston in Middlesex county, so his district would have to keep the snake into the Boston suburbs.

Fun fact: Kennedy also lives in Newton, as did his predecessor Barney Frank.

I suppose then the seat shouldn't change too much, since it has to keep that tail.

[Idaho Conservative]

Fair map of MA.  Tried making it clean and compact.  Every district leans Dem due to geography, but districts 2 and 3 have pretty close PVIs at D+2 and D+3 respectively.  However, District 3 went Clinton by 11.3 so it isn't really all that competitive.  District 2 is Clinton+5.7 so it's lean D.  Warren won it by 3.1 in 2018 so it's pretty competitive downballot.  Charlie Baker should lobby for a clean, fair map.  While a Republican tilting district is doable if you get messy, that's a bit more than could realistically be drawn.  Even a fair map will favor Dems but not as much as the current one does.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fair map of MA.  Tried making it clean and compact.  Every district leans Dem due to geography, but districts 2 and 3 have pretty close PVIs at D+2 and D+3 respectively.  However, District 3 went Clinton by 11.3 so it isn't really all that competitive.  District 2 is Clinton+5.7 so it's lean D.  Warren won it by 3.1 in 2018 so it's pretty competitive downballot.  Charlie Baker should lobby for a clean, fair map.  While a Republican tilting district is doable if you get messy, that's a bit more than could realistically be drawn.  Even a fair map will favor Dems but not as much as the current one does.

Interesting how small the 8th is, geographically.

[Idaho Conservative]

Fair map of MA.  Tried making it clean and compact.  Every district leans Dem due to geography, but districts 2 and 3 have pretty close PVIs at D+2 and D+3 respectively.  However, District 3 went Clinton by 11.3 so it isn't really all that competitive.  District 2 is Clinton+5.7 so it's lean D.  Warren won it by 3.1 in 2018 so it's pretty competitive downballot.  Charlie Baker should lobby for a clean, fair map.  While a Republican tilting district is doable if you get messy, that's a bit more than could realistically be drawn.  Even a fair map will favor Dems but not as much as the current one does.

Interesting how small the 8th is, geographically.

well 6 looks bigger than it is due to water precincts

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fair map of MA.  Tried making it clean and compact.  Every district leans Dem due to geography, but districts 2 and 3 have pretty close PVIs at D+2 and D+3 respectively.  However, District 3 went Clinton by 11.3 so it isn't really all that competitive.  District 2 is Clinton+5.7 so it's lean D.  Warren won it by 3.1 in 2018 so it's pretty competitive downballot.  Charlie Baker should lobby for a clean, fair map.  While a Republican tilting district is doable if you get messy, that's a bit more than could realistically be drawn.  Even a fair map will favor Dems but not as much as the current one does.

Interesting how small the 8th is, geographically.

well 6 looks bigger than it is due to water precincts

That's also true. Overall I guess the land area of 8 is about twice as large as 6?

[Sol]

FWIW the 8th is also a pretty urban seat--Cambridge, Somerville, Allston-Brighton are all pretty densely populated.

[Brittain33]

Do you have racial demographics for the new 6th? That puts Pressley and Lynch in a primary.

[Idaho Conservative]

Fair map of MA.  Tried making it clean and compact.  Every district leans Dem due to geography, but districts 2 and 3 have pretty close PVIs at D+2 and D+3 respectively.  However, District 3 went Clinton by 11.3 so it isn't really all that competitive.  District 2 is Clinton+5.7 so it's lean D.  Warren won it by 3.1 in 2018 so it's pretty competitive downballot.  Charlie Baker should lobby for a clean, fair map.  While a Republican tilting district is doable if you get messy, that's a bit more than could realistically be drawn.  Even a fair map will favor Dems but not as much as the current one does.

Interesting how small the 8th is, geographically.

well 6 looks bigger than it is due to water precincts

That's also true. Overall I guess the land area of 8 is about twice as large as 6?

maybe 1.5x

[Idaho Conservative]

Do you have racial demographics for the new 6th? That puts Pressley and Lynch in a primary.

45% white, 28% black.  Pressley would likely win due to that being such an urban seat, but I think Lynch would run in the 7th.

[mpbond]

Fair map of MA.  Tried making it clean and compact.  Every district leans Dem due to geography, but districts 2 and 3 have pretty close PVIs at D+2 and D+3 respectively.  However, District 3 went Clinton by 11.3 so it isn't really all that competitive.  District 2 is Clinton+5.7 so it's lean D.  Warren won it by 3.1 in 2018 so it's pretty competitive downballot.  Charlie Baker should lobby for a clean, fair map.  While a Republican tilting district is doable if you get messy, that's a bit more than could realistically be drawn.  Even a fair map will favor Dems but not as much as the current one does.

Interesting how small the 8th is, geographically.

Yeah the inner Boston suburbs aren't exactly what comes to mind when one thinks of a typical American suburb- although ironically they were the first. It isn't the land of cul-de-sacs and large back yards. A lot of the housing is double and triple decker homes where each floor is a different unit, all on lots that are less than 1/10th of an acre. Even the wealthier neighborhoods in this area feature large detached homes that take up almost the entire lot. Being the oldest suburbs in America, the density is much more like you would find in Suburban London rather than in the suburbs of any other US city.

[Thunder98]

I was able to make 1 GOP leaning seat in Massachusetts using 2016 Prez data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ad6f06bf-7fdd-4af2-a117-ba26eb8f069e

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was able to make 1 GOP leaning seat in Massachusetts using 2016 Prez data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ad6f06bf-7fdd-4af2-a117-ba26eb8f069e

Lol just goes to show how terrible MA geography is for Rs. In theory, in a fair map purely based on the partisanship you'd expect the GOP to win an average of just under 2 seats in a normal cycle. However unless you go out of your way to draw swing or R leaning districts, any map on 2020 numbers is gonna be 9 solid D seats (I don't think an R seat is even possible on 2020 numbers)

[Thunder98]

Here is a least changed MA map. There is not much else to say really.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/902527fe-906b-4a55-a3f3-02d250d59283

[Brittain33]

Here is a least changed MA map. There is not much else to say really.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/902527fe-906b-4a55-a3f3-02d250d59283

It’s an interesting decision to put Brookline in Lynch’s district. What was on your mind?

[Thunder98]

Here is a least changed MA map. There is not much else to say really.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/902527fe-906b-4a55-a3f3-02d250d59283

It’s an interesting decision to put Brookline in Lynch’s district. What was on your mind?

I don't know tbh, maybe I should've put Brookline in Auchincloss's district?