2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland  (Read 22609 times)
Gass3268
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« on: May 06, 2020, 11:07:41 AM »
« edited: May 06, 2020, 11:10:54 AM by Gass3268 »

The Maryland Democratic Party cares not about your talk of fair districts. Especially not if Ruppersberger wants to keep his twin military bases and Hoyer gets his seat that can survive AA primary challengers thanks to his strength in the north PG area.

8-0


7-1 with 3 AAs



The main concern for the state Democrats has to be the State Supreme Court is now majority Republican. The legislature should look into stripping redistricting from the court's jurisdiction.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2020, 01:09:17 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.

Nah, Dems need to go for the 8-0 sweep. Especially if Republicans are going to go nuts in other states.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2021, 02:13:58 PM »

DRA now has 2020 data for Maryland. Here is how the proposed MD map would perform under 2020 numbers:



MD-01: Biden +75.0
MD-02: Biden +51.8
MD-03: Biden +58.5
MD-04: Biden +54.4
MD-05: Biden +31.6
MD-06: Biden +31.1
MD-07: Trump +7.7
MD-08: Trump +14

Given the trends in up county Montgomery Country and Fredrick County, this MD-07 would probably be competative by the end of the decade.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2021, 08:51:21 AM »

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2021, 09:37:16 AM »

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.

Do you have a link? MD-04 is based in the least Black part of PG County--plus it turns MD-05 into a Black-influence seat.

Unfortunately I can't find it. I saw it over a week ago.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2021, 07:14:13 PM »

#3 is my favorite. Gets rid of Harris and is cleaner than the current map.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2021, 05:40:00 PM »

Lol

https://twitter.com/mdhousedems/status/1468364014422044677?s=20
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2022, 12:50:08 PM »

Will be interesting to see what happens when this goes to the state supreme court. The majority is Hogan appointees, but I believe that he's predominately appointed folks who would be labeled moderate Democrats/liberals.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2022, 06:51:54 PM »

New Map
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