2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Nyvin]

I see the chances of Carroll County getting put into MD-6 as exactly zero.   Carroll County is way more connected to Baltimore than Frederick and the MD Dems have no interests in making MD-6 safe R (nor any reason to).

Also if Hoyer is gone there is literally no chance that only 2 AA majority seats are made, it will definitely be three.

This is a map I made that really just tries to be fair and not look awful.   6D-1R-1s is probably the best way to describe this map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/76b1fe12-43e7-4677-9ba0-0a18e56bf9f5

[Nyvin]

Almost all the supposed "fair" maps in this thread have intentionally drawn Republican districts.   

[Nyvin]

there's no good reason to cross the bay. it's one of the most obvious natural barriers in the whole country
and there is no "demographics" argument to link the western and eastern shores lol. except maybe the republican demographic

Its not a GOP argument, I genuinely think both of these maps are acceptable but I thought crossing the bay there might be better. The only difference here is crossing the bay creates a swing district in Baltimore while this creates a swing Western shore district.( The weird yellow arm in Montgomery keeps Georgetown whole.) The actual partisan effect in either map is neglible. What a partisan decision! I made a Trump +3.5 instead of Trump +2 district.

Wowwww...remember when I (understandably) got attacked for a map with a Fairfax County quad-cut that at leas followed natural boundaries? Well, that Montgomery quad-cut is twice as bad. Also, keeping the three Southern MD Counties together is so incredibly obvious, just like keeping the Eastern Shore and the counties from Fredrick west together.

There's hardly any road connections between Annapolis and Calvert County too,  MD-4 briefly goes into Anne Arundel county but then veers into Prince George pretty much right away.  Calvert and St Marys counties are only connected by a single bridge.

Going out of the way to create a tossup/tilt R district there is nothing more than partisan gerrymandering.  Same thing for the R districts made in Baltimore County elsewhere.

I mean, it's fine if it's intended to maximize Republican districts in the state, but stating it's "fair" is disingenuous.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/walterolson/status/1443723380029628416

Surprisingly MD-1 (western district) in this is only a bit above Trump+7 and would seem to be trending D.

Of course this is only the Hogan appointed commission and has no real power so this map will never happen.

[Nyvin]

The MD-1 on map 3 is Biden+7.7%,  Harris might be able to survive in that for 2022, but 2024 he'd be gone.

Map 2 has it at like Biden+0.3%

[Nyvin]

It's extremely easy to draw a 6-1-1 map in MD that has 7 Biden seats,  can't the Democrats just clean up the lines a bit and make MD-1 safe R and call it good?  I don't think a full 6-2 is really necessary.

[Nyvin]

There doesn't seem to be any demand that Carroll be put in MD-6.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/TammyBaldwinner/status/1508609771414466565

Time to call the moving vans.

Good, maybe Harris and Sabarnes will both lose their primaries. 

Wouldn't the eastern shore counties want their own rep anyway? 

[Nyvin]

Why did they make MD-7 such a dem pack?  It's 56% BVAP and voted 80% Biden.   They could've taken more of the Essex/Middle River area away from MD-2 and moved MD-7 eastward and still have the district in compliance.

[Nyvin]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Probably lean D this year and then Likely D the rest of the decade.