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  Talk Elections
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland  (Read 990 times)
EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2020, 05:02:46 pm »

I do wonder if the various asks from the congressmembers are going to be as difficult to satisfy this time round.

Hoyer is likely to be out of Congress within 5 years and as everybody knows this, not many black politicians are going to want to challenge him in a primary and burn any establishment support for the next decade.

If Sarbanes is ever going to go statewide, he needs to do it soon or he'll be yesterday's news (arguably, he already is.) If he no longer has statewide ambitions, he's not going to care about having a foothold in multiple media markets.

And Brown has much less to fear from a primary challenge than Edwards did.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2020, 05:37:17 pm »

It seems obvious Sarbanes is playing to be Cardins heir, I mean they live a few miles from each other. That scenario allows one to theoretically ignore even the most basic qualifications for protection, since he would only be in his new district for one term. This is why his seat is most ideal to become the third AA seat if it emerges, since the third seat would naturally need to cross between the media markets, so Sarbanes still keeps his wide constituent outreach for two years.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2020, 06:23:16 pm »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #28 on: June 29, 2020, 09:15:09 pm »

I see the chances of Carroll County getting put into MD-6 as exactly zero.   Carroll County is way more connected to Baltimore than Frederick and the MD Dems have no interests in making MD-6 safe R (nor any reason to).

Also if Hoyer is gone there is literally no chance that only 2 AA majority seats are made, it will definitely be three.

This is a map I made that really just tries to be fair and not look awful.   6D-1R-1s is probably the best way to describe this map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/76b1fe12-43e7-4677-9ba0-0a18e56bf9f5

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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2020, 01:09:17 am »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.

Nah, Dems need to go for the 8-0 sweep. Especially if Republicans are going to go nuts in other states.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #30 on: June 30, 2020, 06:31:50 am »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.

Nah, Dems need to go for the 8-0 sweep. Especially if Republicans are going to go nuts in other states.

I would tend to agree if Republicans are going to be cracking Nashville and Kansas City.  What they can do is substitute white Dems for Republicans in the black majority MD-04 and MD-07 in order to keep those seats majority black while also reducing their Dem performance (although they would still be safer than safe Dem).
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Sol
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« Reply #31 on: June 30, 2020, 07:40:01 am »

I mean, Roll Roons was clearly trying to draw a fair map.

That said, I don't like how his 2nd district hops over the water--IMO the 7th kind of overpacks the Black community in Baltimore. IMO the 7th should go east (or north or south) and then the Western suburbs should go in the 2nd.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #32 on: June 30, 2020, 07:44:23 am »

Here is my attempt at a map that the Dems could theoretically draw while still keeping most of their demands and being an improvement in terms of "prettyness" over the previous map?



MD-01: 62-38 Trump, R+12
MD-02: 57-43 Clinton, D+5
MD-03: 83-17 Clinton (VAP: 38% white, 37% black, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian), D+29
MD-04: 93-7 Clinton (VAP: 59% black, 21% white, 16% Hispanic), D+40
MD-05: 56-44 Clinton (VAP: 68% white, 24% black), D+4
MD-06: 58-42 Clinton, D+5
MD-07: 75-25 Clinton (VAP: 52% black, 41% white) D+25
MD-08: 60-40 Clinton (VAP: 63% white, 18% black, 11% Asian) D+7

So basically incumbents get mostly similar districts to what they represent now minus MD-03, while there is also a 3rd minority coalition district (a 3rd black district can easily be done, but the one who would become black majority is MD-05 which I don't think would happen because of seniority? Hoyer does end up in a district that could theoretically flip in an R wave instead I suppose though
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #33 on: June 30, 2020, 07:46:08 am »

Here is my attempt at a map that the Dems could theoretically draw while still keeping most of their demands and being an improvement in terms of "prettyness" over the previous map?



MD-01: 62-38 Trump, R+12
MD-02: 57-43 Clinton, D+5
MD-03: 83-17 Clinton (VAP: 38% white, 37% black, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian), D+29
MD-04: 93-7 Clinton (VAP: 59% black, 21% white, 16% Hispanic), D+40
MD-05: 56-44 Clinton (VAP: 68% white, 24% black), D+4
MD-06: 58-42 Clinton, D+5
MD-07: 75-25 Clinton (VAP: 52% black, 41% white) D+25
MD-08: 60-40 Clinton (VAP: 63% white, 18% black, 11% Asian) D+7

So basically incumbents get mostly similar districts to what they represent now minus MD-03, while there is also a 3rd minority coalition district (a 3rd black district can easily be done, but the one who would become black majority is MD-05 which I don't think would happen because of seniority? Hoyer does end up in a district that could theoretically flip in an R wave instead I suppose though

No way should the 3rd and 4th be over 80% Clinton.  That packs too many Dem votes.
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