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Author Topic: It was 3 years ago today  (Read 2405 times)
BigVic
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« on: November 08, 2019, 02:43:07 AM »
« edited: November 08, 2019, 07:53:29 AM by BigVic »
3 years ago today, the biggest upset since the 1948 election occurred when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a boil over despite what the polls said 304-227 with 7 faithless electors.

What were your prediction in the lead up to Election Day 2016?

My prediction was Hillary winning 278-260, 50-50 Senate, GOP House Control. Wisconsin the tipping point state.

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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2019, 03:31:29 AM »
My final prediction was this:



✓ Former SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 308 EVs.; 49.7%
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 230 EVs.; 44.9%


In the summer of 2016 and after the Access Hollywood Tape, I thought the result would be 2012 + AZ and NC.

I'll never forget election night how shocked I was.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2019, 07:10:57 AM »


I strongly believed that Trump would underperform Romney in Kentucky.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2019, 09:34:46 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 09:51:47 AM by L.D. Smith »


Trump/Pence: 279 EV, 50.1%
H. Clinton/Kaine: 259 EV, 48.9%

Basically, while the states were off slightly, things mostly went as I expected them to. Didn't expect Trump to lose by 3 million though.
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WithLeast
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2019, 10:45:20 AM »


Clinton 278
Trump 260

Kind of an odd prediction looking back at it. I was sure that Trump was going to win Florida and Wisconsin but still lose the election and North Carolina was the only state that could get Hillary over 270, so I thought it would go to her.
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here2view
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2019, 11:09:38 AM »


Clinton 302
Trump 236
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2019, 11:00:35 PM »
I honestly dont remember
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coolface1572
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2019, 11:05:12 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 11:12:43 PM by coolface1572 »
Quote from: BigVic on November 08, 2019, 02:43:07 AM
3 years ago today, the biggest upset since the 1948 election occurred when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a boil over despite what the polls said 304-227 with 7 faithless electors.

What were your prediction in the lead up to Election Day 2016?

My prediction was Hillary winning 278-260, 50-50 Senate, GOP House Control. Wisconsin the tipping point state.



My prediction exactly. Though I thought Pennsylvania (and thus the election as a whole) was essentially a coin flip.
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Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2019, 03:44:22 PM »


I thought Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina would be the closest states that could have gone either way.
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BigVic
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2019, 08:20:10 PM »
Quote from: coolface1572 on November 08, 2019, 11:05:12 PM
Quote from: BigVic on November 08, 2019, 02:43:07 AM
3 years ago today, the biggest upset since the 1948 election occurred when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a boil over despite what the polls said 304-227 with 7 faithless electors.

What were your prediction in the lead up to Election Day 2016?

My prediction was Hillary winning 278-260, 50-50 Senate, GOP House Control. Wisconsin the tipping point state.



My prediction exactly. Though I thought Pennsylvania (and thus the election as a whole) was essentially a coin flip.

Also thought the election would come down to WI and PA with the result up in the air for a few days or weeks as Trump refuses to concede and calls out “voter fraud” in both states.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2019, 05:55:16 PM »
Quote from: Cаквояжник on November 08, 2019, 07:10:57 AM


I strongly believed that Trump would underperform Romney in Kentucky.

Trump's 30 point margin in KY is the strongest by a Republican since Nixon 1972. And his 42 point margin in WV is the strongest by any presidential candidate in history, surpassing Lincoln 1864.
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pops
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2019, 09:22:19 PM »


Hillary 279 - Trump 259

With the states I thought would be closest grayed out:
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