2000: John Mccain vs Al Gore

[One Term Floridian]

I don't think McCain's campaign would have targeted WV anywhere near as aggressively as Karl Rove did for W. It would stay Dem at least this time around.

I have McCain winning 279 electoral votes, with a few different states and margins than in 2000 IRL. As for the popular vote, I think Gore still narrowly wins it and the election hinges on MO, with McCain winning it by a razor thin margin of about 0.13% like in 2008.

Would have been a very interesting election, I think Gore might have ended up picking someone other than Lieberman this time around with McCain likely picking Mike DeWine for VP.

McCain would have likely been a more competent war leader during 9/11 and its aftermath and would have had an easy time winning re-election against Howard Dean, winning 348 electoral votes.

[One Term Floridian]

Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-TN) / Representative Richard Gephardt (D-MO) - 329 EVs, 50%
Senator John S. McCain III (R-AZ) / Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-CT) - 209 EVs, 47%
Others - 0 EVs, 3%

McCain would almost have certainly lost, he was a poor campaigner. Gore would have been more comfortable pinning himself to Clinton. He wouldn't have targeted WV that heavily and the South would not have transitioned over to the GOP as heavily as with Bush. Evangelicals would stay with Gore, and McCain would do well with hispanics and suburban voters winning NV, VA, and CO.

I could see this happening, especially what you said about Gore doing significantly better in the South. But Lieberman was still a Democrat at the time and would not have joined the McCain ticket, even if given the opportunity.