Bush 1992. Dole overpreformed a bit if anything, and the GOP had little trouble holding most of it's 1994 coattails downballot.
Bush 92 got more EV than Dole , and lost by a smaller PV margin than Dole did. Heck I would say 92 was less of a defeat for HW than 08 was for McCain
In 08, McCain faced structural disadvantages that no GOP candidate could have overcome. In 92, HW Bush's defeat had more to do with the incredible political strength of Clinton. Bush would have defeated a Brown or Tsongas. Even then, Bush closed the gap to 2-3 points in the week before the election. Then, the Caspar Weinberger indictment proved to be an October surprise, hurting Bush's momentum.
It is interesting how the October surprises tend to hurt Republicans.
1992: Weinberger indictment
2000: W Bush DUI in Maine
2012: Romeny's 47% video tape
2016: Access Hollywood
In 2004, Bin Laden put out a tape to get Bush re-selected.
