2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Skill and Chance]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

[lfromnj]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

[Skill and Chance]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

[lfromnj]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

Oh of course. I am just pointing out Virginia is more brutal because the fastest growing county was Loudoun which went from barely D to completely Safe D.

[Spectator]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

Oh of course. I am just pointing out Virginia is more brutal because the fastest growing county was Loudoun which went from barely D to completely Safe D.

In the next decade or so, the swing in Exurban Atlanta will be even more dramatic. A Democrat will probably win Forsyth County by 2030 at this rate. Compare all the 2020 Atlanta counties to how they voted in 2004 and you also see some 40-60% swings.

[Non Swing Voter]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

Oh of course. I am just pointing out Virginia is more brutal because the fastest growing county was Loudoun which went from barely D to completely Safe D.

I think it's the same thing though.  They are all growing because D voters are moving in and they're connected to the metro areas.  Whether they start at an R or D baseline.

This is happening everywhere.  The problem for the GOP in VA and GA in particular is that at the same time the rural areas are shrinking a lot.  In NC at least the rurals seem to be holding somewhat steady. 

This is somewhat off topic but I read this article today about PA, same thing, though to a lesser extent because D areas aren't growing as fast:

https://www.inquirer.com/news/rural-census-pennsylvania-voting-money-20210918.html

[lfromnj]

Why can't they just keep Poor Richmond whole.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1439754670965239810?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1439754674492563461?s=20

Apply face to hand.

[Non Swing Voter]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1442120423987101698

Seems like the commission came out with a map. Looks closer to the GOP map although a few compromises existed . I wonder if Dems were just over worried about the state supreme court drawing a massive gerrymander that they decided to compromise. In reality the state supreme court is fairly moderate and I highly doubt anything super hackish would have been done.

Median seats are the Eastern Shore to VA beach one(Trump +1) and Clarke + Outer Loudoun(Clinton +3) .

I am certain Biden won that median seat, he also flipped the Richmond seat at Trump +5 and the Stafford+Fredricksburg+King Georges) He may have flipped the Trump +8 VA beach seat as well.

Putting Fredricksburg with Stafford instead of Spotsylvania is definitely a good part of the deal Democrats got.

[Skill and Chance]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

[lfromnj]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022.  

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).  

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job. This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ.  

Doubt it. Maybe a pure private citizen commission where the citizens are randomly selected like Jury Duty but if you allow self selection, activists like Eid will do outrageous stuff like split East Lansing and Lansing. I can't think of anything as bad on this map besides some weird funky lines regarding VRA.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1442120423987101698

Seems like the commission came out with a map. Looks closer to the GOP map although a few compromises existed . I wonder if Dems were just over worried about the state supreme court drawing a massive gerrymander that they decided to compromise. In reality the state supreme court is fairly moderate and I highly doubt anything super hackish would have been done.

Median seats are the Eastern Shore to VA beach one(Trump +1) and Clarke + Outer Loudoun(Clinton +3) .

I am certain Biden won that median seat, he also flipped the Richmond seat at Trump +5 and the Stafford+Fredricksburg+King Georges) He may have flipped the Trump +8 VA beach seat as well.

Putting Fredricksburg with Stafford instead of Spotsylvania is definitely a good part of the deal Democrats got.

It's likely a map Biden won 25 seats on. Northam won 21 and Kaine 26, and the Number that is most relevant to the future is somewhere in between those two. The 2016 numbers are not really accurate anymore.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1442120423987101698

Seems like the commission came out with a map. Looks closer to the GOP map although a few compromises existed . I wonder if Dems were just over worried about the state supreme court drawing a massive gerrymander that they decided to compromise. In reality the state supreme court is fairly moderate and I highly doubt anything super hackish would have been done.

Median seats are the Eastern Shore to VA beach one(Trump +1) and Clarke + Outer Loudoun(Clinton +3) .

I am certain Biden won that median seat, he also flipped the Richmond seat at Trump +5 and the Stafford+Fredricksburg+King Georges) He may have flipped the Trump +8 VA beach seat as well.

Putting Fredricksburg with Stafford instead of Spotsylvania is definitely a good part of the deal Democrats got.

It's likely a map Biden won 25 seats on. Northam won 21 and Kaine 26, and the Number that is most relevant to the future is somewhere in between those two. The 2016 numbers are not really accurate anymore.

I mean Democrats didn't even flip the current 4th Richmond seat which voted for Clinton in 2019. Now it is Trump +5.

They also didn't flip the current VA beach seat that voted for Clinton by 1 which is now Trump +1.

However winning that 21st seat in Loudoun county is very much a reach for the GOP.

Also the GOP does need to win the Roanake seat.

[Skill and Chance]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022.  

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).  

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job. This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ.  

Doubt it. Maybe a pure private citizen commission where the citizens are randomly selected like Jury Duty but if you allow self selection, activists like Eid will do outrageous stuff like split East Lansing and Lansing. I can't think of anything as bad on this map besides some weird funky lines regarding VRA.

Eid's just one vote out of >10 and you need a supermajority to pass a map.  CO had a "Trump really won 2020" guy on their commission, but I believe he resigned.  As long as the activist isn't the sole tiebreaker*, this isn't a huge problem and the likelihood of an activist for the other side also being there is reasonably high.  

*This system can and does fail.  It's probably going to happen 2 cycles in a row in AZ in favor of opposite parties and there's a high risk the independent on the MT commission is going to do this too.

[lfromnj]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022.  

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).  

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job. This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ.  

Doubt it. Maybe a pure private citizen commission where the citizens are randomly selected like Jury Duty but if you allow self selection, activists like Eid will do outrageous stuff like split East Lansing and Lansing. I can't think of anything as bad on this map besides some weird funky lines regarding VRA.

Eid's just one vote out of >10 and you need a supermajority to pass a map.  CO had a "Trump really won 2020" guy on their commission, but I believe he resigned.  As long as the activist isn't the sole tiebreaker*, this isn't a huge problem and the likelihood of an activist for the other side also being there is reasonably high.  

*This system can and does fail.  It's probably going to happen 2 cycles in a row in AZ in favor of opposite parties and there's a high risk the independent on the MT commission is going to do this too.

Note It is not attacking the partisanship of the activists or even indies. However when you put a bunch of normies with 1 or 2 activists who are taking the largest active role they can push the commission heavily. For example commissioner Szetla in Michigan was "outed" as a Emily LIST funder but honestly she seems ok and relatively normal. Eid however is taking maps from twitter Democrats determined to gerrymander the state and because he is the loudest voice in the room of normies he gets a lot of what he wants.

In Colorado the Trump won 2020 guy isn't an activist and he's actually a normie. He also did not resign, he just lost his chairship. Just recently during a fight between 2 other commissioners he called for a calming down.  IIRC he also voted to end "prison gerrymandering".

 The actual activists on the Colorado commission are Simone Tafoya who was a Reid/Udall aid and is pushing for 5-3 or 5-1-2 maps while Bill Leone who was a lawyer somewhere in the Bush admin. He was the one fighting with Tafoya. This counter activism from Leone has probably prevented the map from going to what Democrats want despite the very good lobbying they have been doing. Leone did not vote to end prison gerrymandering btw.

[Nyvin]

It looks like they took the GOP map and just made a few minor tweeks to it.   Democrats can still easily win a majority but it's definitely a map that favors the Republicans.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like they took the GOP map and just made a few minor tweeks to it.   Democrats can still easily win a majority but it's definitely a map that favors the Republicans.

Are you surprised they have apparently all agreed to this?

[Nyvin]

It looks like they took the GOP map and just made a few minor tweeks to it.   Democrats can still easily win a majority but it's definitely a map that favors the Republicans.

Are you surprised they have apparently all agreed to this?

I would hope since they more or less used the GOP map for the Senate the Democrats would get their map for either congressional or house (with adjustments obviously).  

I'm counting 20 seats that Biden most likely won by double digits (12 in NoVA, 1 Charlottesville, 3 Richmond, 4 Tidewater) so the GOP definitely has an uphill battle for a majority considering there's a good number of competitive districts after that.  

The Stafford district is 50.7% Biden to 47.0% Trump in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Curious if it would have been possible for Democrats to draw 2/3rds majorities if they still had control under the 2011 rules? 

[lfromnj]

Curious if it would have been possible for Democrats to draw 2/3rds majorities if they still had control under the 2011 rules?  

For the State senate with some moderate baconmandering of NOVA yes. I think 5 Richmond would have been needed and 6 in the Hampton roads. Obviously Charlottesville and Roanoke makes that 13. After that you need 14 more and the current map has 12.

Also I think they could get 2 out of Albemarle if neither one goes to Creigh Deeds home.

[Non Swing Voter]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

No.  It's not.  That's terrible thinking.  It's absurd for one party to enact commissions in safe states and the other party gerrymander.  That makes for one party rule and if anything then they'll end up passing some crap at the federal level that undermines these commissions. 

[S019]

It looks like they took the GOP map and just made a few minor tweeks to it.   Democrats can still easily win a majority but it's definitely a map that favors the Republicans.

Are you surprised they have apparently all agreed to this?

The Republicans had all the leverage here, since the backdrop is punting it to a Republican Supreme Court, it makes sense that Democrats exacted some concessions rather than throw it to the court, where they get none.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.