2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia  (Read 56790 times)
Stuart98
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« Reply #375 on: September 02, 2021, 03:49:15 PM »

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.
Partisan/bipartisan commissions are bad. I'd like to see a federal law rolling redistricting into another arm of the census bureau, with districts drawn by non-partisan bureaucrats with public input. I don't want a single elected official getting a say in the process beyond that of any other citizen.
That sounds even worse than a commission tbh.

The only way to truly get partisanship / gaming the system out of redistricting is to give it to the computers. We will set allowable deviations by population, compactness, etc. and then let the computers draw the maps.

The only question would be VRA compliance and who decides on the algorithm, but those questions could be handled nationwide and not on a state by state basis. Regardless, this is the only framework that will ever be fair in any sense of the word.
I have yet to see an algorithm that can create better fair maps than a human can. It's probably possible to make one, but it takes a lot more work than any advocating for robomandering has put in. Even if you turn everything over to an algorithm, it's still using weights for criteria determined by a human. You're not eliminating bias; you're obfuscating it.

The census bureau should draw the maps because no group has a better idea of how our communities are connected and divided than they do, and therefore they're the organization best-positioned to draw maps that keep communities of interest together.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #376 on: September 02, 2021, 05:27:32 PM »

I’ve yet to see any compelling definition of a ‘community of interest’ that goes beyond municipality or county borders. You can load racial data into the computer and prioritize minority majority seats if you like, but I’m pretty convinced that neither side really wants a solution, they just want maps that help their cause.

Computers don’t care who wins or loses elections, so I’ll trust any day. Even if it’s as simple as minimizing county splits, prioritizing compactness, and hitting go. I’d rather have that any day of the week than these bs commissions or legislators gerrymandering their own lines to keep their jobs safe from voters.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #377 on: September 03, 2021, 11:37:58 PM »



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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #378 on: September 08, 2021, 01:47:31 PM »



Greater NOVA district proposals. There's some good stuff in here, also some weird proposals like B2 Loudoun.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #379 on: September 08, 2021, 02:09:39 PM »

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #380 on: September 17, 2021, 03:06:38 PM »


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.
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S019
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« Reply #381 on: September 17, 2021, 08:36:52 PM »

Hot take coming, but I anticipate whatever the commission draws is going to get tossed out if the GOP doesn't like it, if they get a bad map, they'll take their chances with a 5-1 R court, which is probably a smart gamble from their perspective.


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

little bit of everything, compact in Fairfax, R gerrymander in NoVA and D gerrymander in Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Also I wonder if that Newport News seat is VRA compliant.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #382 on: September 17, 2021, 08:43:08 PM »

Hot take coming, but I anticipate whatever the commission draws is going to get tossed out if the GOP doesn't like it, if they get a bad map, they'll take their chances with a 5-1 R court, which is probably a smart gamble from their perspective.


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

little bit of everything, compact in Fairfax, R gerrymander in NoVA and D gerrymander in Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Also I wonder if that Newport News seat is VRA compliant.
Newport News CD is 44% black total population and 42% black VAP. Petersburg CD is 40% black total population and 39% black VAP.
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palandio
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« Reply #383 on: September 18, 2021, 02:35:41 AM »


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

Is this a 9-2 Biden map? Looks like a D gambitmander that gambles on current trends to hold. But yes, four of the seats are marginal, so it's a map that leaves Republicans a real chance to come back to 6R-5D and can in that sense be considered a competitive-mander, too, and a fair-non-partisan-map of sorts. An R gerrymander certainly not (at least in 2021) and the concept of fair-proportional map needs further definition because I think that people don't agree on what it means.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #384 on: September 18, 2021, 08:25:27 AM »


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

Is this a 9-2 Biden map? Looks like a D gambitmander that gambles on current trends to hold. But yes, four of the seats are marginal, so it's a map that leaves Republicans a real chance to come back to 6R-5D and can in that sense be considered a competitive-mander, too, and a fair-non-partisan-map of sorts. An R gerrymander certainly not (at least in 2021) and the concept of fair-proportional map needs further definition because I think that people don't agree on what it means.
'Fair-proportional' means a map on giving Rs a share of seats equal to the statewide share.

But you are absolutely correct. It is a D gambitmander map.
I wish I had 2020 presidential data. I think Biden probably won 9 seats here, but I have no way of knowing for sure.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #385 on: September 18, 2021, 11:14:13 AM »



Legislative proposals are now accessible on the site. I don't these have any relation to the NOVA lines already drawn by the commission in its various hearings.
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windjammer
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« Reply #386 on: September 18, 2021, 12:09:05 PM »

Hot take coming, but I anticipate whatever the commission draws is going to get tossed out if the GOP doesn't like it, if they get a bad map, they'll take their chances with a 5-1 R court, which is probably a smart gamble from their perspective.


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

little bit of everything, compact in Fairfax, R gerrymander in NoVA and D gerrymander in Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Also I wonder if that Newport News seat is VRA compliant.
For the record the VA supreme court is composed by 4 republicans and 3 democrats. One of the republicans (Mims) have very good relations with the dems
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #387 on: September 18, 2021, 12:40:10 PM »

Hot take coming, but I anticipate whatever the commission draws is going to get tossed out if the GOP doesn't like it, if they get a bad map, they'll take their chances with a 5-1 R court, which is probably a smart gamble from their perspective.


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

little bit of everything, compact in Fairfax, R gerrymander in NoVA and D gerrymander in Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Also I wonder if that Newport News seat is VRA compliant.
For the record the VA supreme court is composed by 4 republicans and 3 democrats. One of the republicans (Mims) have very good relations with the dems

Interesting, so it's not actually a foregone conclusion they will just pick the R map?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #388 on: September 18, 2021, 12:45:27 PM »

Hot take coming, but I anticipate whatever the commission draws is going to get tossed out if the GOP doesn't like it, if they get a bad map, they'll take their chances with a 5-1 R court, which is probably a smart gamble from their perspective.


(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

little bit of everything, compact in Fairfax, R gerrymander in NoVA and D gerrymander in Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Also I wonder if that Newport News seat is VRA compliant.
For the record the VA supreme court is composed by 4 republicans and 3 democrats. One of the republicans (Mims) have very good relations with the dems

Interesting, so it's not actually a foregone conclusion they will just pick the R map?
Yeah I think it'll be an r leaning map but not something egregious
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Nyvin
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« Reply #389 on: September 18, 2021, 01:52:14 PM »



Legislative proposals are now accessible on the site. I don't these have any relation to the NOVA lines already drawn by the commission in its various hearings.

No real surprise that there's Republican and Democrat drawn maps.   The commission can't agree on anything and will most likely (almost certainly) deadlock and be sent to the State Supreme Court.  
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« Reply #390 on: September 18, 2021, 03:26:30 PM »

No real surprise that there's Republican and Democrat drawn maps.   The commission can't agree on anything and will most likely (almost certainly) deadlock and be sent to the State Supreme Court.

It's almost as though this was entirely predicable. And predicted. Because it was all a cynical Republican scheme to trick gullible Democratic voters.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #391 on: September 18, 2021, 03:49:05 PM »

No real surprise that there's Republican and Democrat drawn maps.   The commission can't agree on anything and will most likely (almost certainly) deadlock and be sent to the State Supreme Court. 

If this weren't so critical to the state's future, it'd be hilarious how obvious this result was.
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« Reply #392 on: September 18, 2021, 08:23:24 PM »

Didn't D's pack the state Supreme Court a while back?  So essentially we'll have a "light" D gerrymander (probably an incumbent protection congressional map)?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #393 on: September 18, 2021, 10:15:59 PM »

Didn't D's pack the state Supreme Court a while back?  So essentially we'll have a "light" D gerrymander (probably an incumbent protection congressional map)?

The state supreme court is elected by the legislature, and most of the current justices were elected by a fully Republican legislature. A couple or so were first appointed into the court system by Democratic governors, but not all. One used to be a Republican state Representative for 14 years, another worked for the Republican-led AG's office for many years.

I'm not 100% on it but I think it's probably fair to say the court leans right.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #394 on: September 18, 2021, 10:18:49 PM »

Didn't D's pack the state Supreme Court a while back?  So essentially we'll have a "light" D gerrymander (probably an incumbent protection congressional map)?

The state supreme court is elected by the legislature, and most of the current justices were elected by a fully Republican legislature. A couple or so were first appointed into the court system by Democratic governors, but not all. One used to be a Republican state Representative for 14 years.

I thought the Dem legislature packed it a while back but maybe it was lower courts.  If the Dems literally handed all power of redistricting to GOP judges then I'm really pissed now.  The unilateral disarmament is absurd.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #395 on: September 18, 2021, 10:21:07 PM »

I thought the Dem legislature packed it a while back but maybe it was lower courts.  If the Dems literally handed all power of redistricting to GOP judges then I'm really pissed now.  The unilateral disarmament is absurd.

Doesn't sound like VA. Democrats have only had full control for less than 2 years now and I don't remember any judicial reform / shenanigans happening.

Illinois Democrats recently passed a new map for the state supreme court for the first time in decades, mostly to shore up incumbent dems. Not that a very strong argument couldn't be made for a new map anyway given how wildly unbalanced some of the district populations had become. Maybe that was what you read? Certainly not West Virginia impeaching the entire supreme court in 2018 to replace them with conservatives Tongue?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #396 on: September 18, 2021, 10:25:03 PM »

I thought the Dem legislature packed it a while back but maybe it was lower courts.  If the Dems literally handed all power of redistricting to GOP judges then I'm really pissed now.  The unilateral disarmament is absurd.

Doesn't sound like VA. Democrats have only had full control for less than 2 years now and I don't remember any judicial reform / shenanigans happening.

Illinois Democrats recently passed a new map for the state supreme court for the first time in decades, mostly to shore up incumbent dems. Not that a very strong argument couldn't be made for a new map anyway given how wildly unbalanced some of the district populations had become. Maybe that was what you read? Certainly not West Virginia impeaching the entire supreme court in 2018 to replace them with conservatives Tongue?

I found what I was thinking of.  I guess they just did it for the appeals court:

https://apnews.com/article/health-courts-coronavirus-pandemic-race-and-ethnicity-virginia-2937c5bf568b2986eede2982e909dd26

At least it shows a willingness to do something... I guess. 
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Virginiá
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« Reply #397 on: September 18, 2021, 10:38:51 PM »

I found what I was thinking of.  I guess they just did it for the appeals court:

https://apnews.com/article/health-courts-coronavirus-pandemic-race-and-ethnicity-virginia-2937c5bf568b2986eede2982e909dd26

At least it shows a willingness to do something... I guess. 

Yeah not applicable for redistricting since the VASC handles deadlocks, but wow I totally missed this. And that happened nearly a year ago. Good to know!
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S019
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« Reply #398 on: September 19, 2021, 01:02:19 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4bbecefb-4372-49f5-8475-da5771167081 VA Senate D
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e2c62df1-6679-4500-b459-b9fd7bb07b95 VA Senate R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/06813899-7514-420c-823b-f7bfad997aed VA House R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5faf048d-191c-4437-bf1f-e9a9d4c53dc5 VA House D
I converted all four VA map proposals to DRA by using the VA Commission's shapefiles
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #399 on: September 19, 2021, 02:29:34 AM »


The R gerrymandered NOVA senate districts based in Loudoun are dummymanders.  There's way too much growth in the urban parts of the county for the rural areas to maintain power.  JFC I was there just today and the traffic is sickening.
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