2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia  (Read 56793 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #250 on: November 26, 2020, 04:08:56 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

This is a blatant R gerrymander that I don’t think even a 5-1 court would draw.  Even the Dem court in PA drew a pretty fair map.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #251 on: November 26, 2020, 04:11:03 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

That's way too ugly and way beyond what you need for a relatively clean 5-1-5 map.
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S019
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« Reply #252 on: November 26, 2020, 04:14:45 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

That's way too ugly and way beyond what you need for a relatively clean 5-1-5 map.

The goal here was likely/safe 6-5
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« Reply #253 on: November 26, 2020, 05:19:43 PM »

It's really f'ing awful that we are in this position because Dems want to unilaterally be fair.  I'll probably have Comstock as a congresswoman again at this rate.  Meanwhile Texas probably creates a 40-0 Frankenmap.  Democrats are the worst at politics.  They should all retire.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #254 on: November 26, 2020, 05:22:40 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2020, 07:31:02 PM by lfromnj »

It's really f'ing awful that we are in this position because Dems want to unilaterally be fair.  I'll probably have Comstock as a congresswoman again at this rate.  Meanwhile Texas probably creates a 40-0 Frankenmap.  Democrats are the worst at politics.  They should all retire.

Lol what?

no your district will recede back and lose the 2 rural counties due to Loudoun growth and become 100% Safe unless you actually live in Clarke or Frederick.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #255 on: November 26, 2020, 05:30:38 PM »

There's really no evidence that the VA court, which while R has been shown to be rather lackluster in terms of ideological and partisan commitment, will go out of their way to gerrymander VA. What's almost certainly more likely is just the same process that occurred in PA and NC: the court will hire a special master which will draw a roughly fair map.

This kind of panicking over basically nothing is not helpful, especially when said panicking is completely disconnected from reality.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #256 on: November 26, 2020, 05:41:02 PM »

There's really no evidence that the VA court, which while R has been shown to be rather lackluster in terms of ideological and partisan commitment, will go out of their way to gerrymander VA. What's almost certainly more likely is just the same process that occurred in PA and NC: the court will hire a special master which will draw a roughly fair map.

This kind of panicking over basically nothing is not helpful, especially when said panicking is completely disconnected from reality.

The PA court shifted the Bucks district left by a few points, they also managed to put both Mt.Lebanon and Pen hills in PA 17th and got a swing Harrisburg York district. A similar map except the opposite could possibly be expected, see earlier in the thread for my clean maps that do almost the same job as s019's/
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« Reply #257 on: November 26, 2020, 06:07:17 PM »

My guess for a "clean" R gerrymander. Should be 5-1-5:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e049197-dd77-4cc5-aa41-0a139262132d

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« Reply #258 on: November 26, 2020, 06:09:35 PM »

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22



Is this the kind of map a redistricting commission would draw? 
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #259 on: November 26, 2020, 10:57:24 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2020, 11:01:03 PM by LimoLiberal »

Slightly different take.   I'm a big fan of the Shenandoah Valley district btw.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7efb37e-9149-41af-8cbb-1cef67d1af22



Is this the kind of map a redistricting commission would draw?  

I really don't think the commission will give up on Spanberger that easily.

That 7 would be interesting though. Webb would probably run again and win, the six counties between Albemarle and Loudoun/PWC were only like Trump +25,000.
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« Reply #260 on: November 27, 2020, 12:23:33 AM »

Why did dems pass this when they could have gerrymandered?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #261 on: November 27, 2020, 12:37:05 AM »

They didn't.
Well they did in 2019 but when 2020 came they tried to block it but a few true believers voted for it
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« Reply #262 on: November 27, 2020, 10:29:56 AM »


Because Dem politicians are obsessed with being holier than thou rather than actually delivering for their constituents who vote them in.  They constantly act like this is just some theoretical political science class.  It's not.  The real world consequences of their inaction and unilateral disarmament are tax cuts for billionaires.  That's the cold hard reality.  Because they let the other side gerrymander and don't do the same (generally speaking) Republicans have more opportunities to pass bills that the general public doesn't want. 
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slothdem
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« Reply #263 on: November 27, 2020, 10:30:53 AM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #264 on: November 30, 2020, 01:00:45 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #265 on: December 18, 2020, 07:17:10 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.
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« Reply #266 on: December 18, 2020, 07:20:12 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.
I don't think a sustainable 8R-3D is even realistic anymore even with the most hackish R elected officials imaginable holding the crayons. 7-4 might be possible, key word being might. An ironclad 6R-5D is the best option for VA Rs if they had total control.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #267 on: December 18, 2020, 07:21:46 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.

Virginia is a state that will continue to trend Democratic. Even if Nova moderates a bit (very likely but not to the extent some Republicans think it will) the trends towards Democrats in the Richmond area are very promising and the eastern shore is shaky for the GOP at best and there is hardly any room for the GOP to grow in rural VA unless they make significant in roads with African Americans.

The whole circus about this redistricting amendment has been over blown. It probably starts at a 6 D to 5 R  map.
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« Reply #268 on: December 18, 2020, 07:45:24 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.

Virginia is a state that will continue to trend Democratic. Even if Nova moderates a bit (very likely but not to the extent some Republicans think it will) the trends towards Democrats in the Richmond area are very promising and the eastern shore is shaky for the GOP at best and there is hardly any room for the GOP to grow in rural VA unless they make significant in roads with African Americans.

The whole circus about this redistricting amendment has been over blown. It probably starts at a 6 D to 5 R  map.

I mean probably given the 1st is going to be a problem by the end of the decade due to the NoVA growth spreading as far south as like Fredericksburg, and Charlottesville is a problem regardless of where you put it, so in a 6-5 R map at least one seat probably falls before the decade’s end, the safe move is to sink Spanberger by giving her a slice of NoVA (to shore up Wittman) or all of Albermarle (to shore up Good)
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« Reply #269 on: December 19, 2020, 12:44:04 AM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.
I don't think a sustainable 8R-3D is even realistic anymore even with the most hackish R elected officials imaginable holding the crayons. 7-4 might be possible, key word being might. An ironclad 6R-5D is the best option for VA Rs if they had total control.
How's 7-4 even possible?  There have to be 2 VRA seats in southern VA and 3 Dem packs are needed in NoVA.  The best map for Republicans that could be realistically drawn is 6-5 R.  If you get rid of the VRA and draw bacon strips maybe a 7-4 but that's not what's going to happen.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #270 on: December 19, 2020, 09:48:52 AM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw).  

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.
I don't think a sustainable 8R-3D is even realistic anymore even with the most hackish R elected officials imaginable holding the crayons. 7-4 might be possible, key word being might. An ironclad 6R-5D is the best option for VA Rs if they had total control.
How's 7-4 even possible?  There have to be 2 VRA seats in southern VA and 3 Dem packs are needed in NoVA.  The best map for Republicans that could be realistically drawn is 6-5 R.  If you get rid of the VRA and draw bacon strips maybe a 7-4 but that's not what's going to happen.

7-4 would be a massive dummymander.  You at least have to concede Dems two Hampton Roads/Richmond seats and three NOVA seats at this point.
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« Reply #271 on: December 19, 2020, 01:35:45 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.
I don't think a sustainable 8R-3D is even realistic anymore even with the most hackish R elected officials imaginable holding the crayons. 7-4 might be possible, key word being might. An ironclad 6R-5D is the best option for VA Rs if they had total control.
How's 7-4 even possible?  There have to be 2 VRA seats in southern VA and 3 Dem packs are needed in NoVA.  The best map for Republicans that could be realistically drawn is 6-5 R.  If you get rid of the VRA and draw bacon strips maybe a 7-4 but that's not what's going to happen.
A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #272 on: December 19, 2020, 02:05:30 PM »

A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e

Not VRA compliant. That ROVA Dem district is an illegal AA pack.
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« Reply #273 on: December 19, 2020, 02:26:49 PM »

A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e

Not VRA compliant. That ROVA Dem district is an illegal AA pack.

Yeah that one's illegal, it's clear that 2 Hampton/Norfolk AA seats are needed
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #274 on: December 19, 2020, 03:19:43 PM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw). 

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.
I don't think a sustainable 8R-3D is even realistic anymore even with the most hackish R elected officials imaginable holding the crayons. 7-4 might be possible, key word being might. An ironclad 6R-5D is the best option for VA Rs if they had total control.
How's 7-4 even possible?  There have to be 2 VRA seats in southern VA and 3 Dem packs are needed in NoVA.  The best map for Republicans that could be realistically drawn is 6-5 R.  If you get rid of the VRA and draw bacon strips maybe a 7-4 but that's not what's going to happen.
A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e
illegal and NoVA can be packed better
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