2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Virginiá]

It wouldn't be a problem if the justices were picked by some sort of non-partisan nominating commission, or less of a problem if they were at least appointed by governors, but that isn't the case. There really is a substantial conflict of interest issue here with letting Republican members of the commission deadlock on purpose to throw map drawing to the VASC.

Better to just craft a new amendment with less problems than to pass this out of desperation to get something done (even if it creates new problems and/or weakens the movement for real reform).

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's fine to redo the amendment, but they need to be consistent and apply whatever process they propose to the 2021 map even if it isn't in the state constitution yet.  However, it wouldn't be a bad idea to use that leverage to try and make a deal in which a nearby state where Republicans would have controlled the process does the say.  With the way judicial selection is set up in VA, the state supreme court basically is a backdoor for a long term (5-10 yrs or longer) legislative majority's preferences. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded. 

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

[cvparty]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded. 

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

fairfax county, which might have as much population as the rest of the major NOVA counties/cities combined, is barely growing relative to the state at large, so the factor isn’t as massive as you’d expect

[Oryxslayer]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded.  

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

Everything is with current projections. Using 2010 Data, NOVA just barely passed the pop for three districts in PW, Fairfax, Loudoun, and the cities. The Republicans used this to their advantage with VA-10 reaching beyond the core NOVA, and VA-01 reaching in. In 2020, this core NOVA is projected around 3.4 districts of the 11. That's still impressive growth, even if it doesn't demand a fourth district. Even more impressive when you remember that every 11 people added to the state raises the district pop requirements by 1, AKA a miniature version of the California paradox. This distribution favors the democrats, since they have NOVA votes to add into a 4th seat and make it competitive if they are nice, or it allows four districts to have ~70% of their pop in NOVA and 30% cracked outside, if Dems are aggressive.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded.  

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

Everything is with current projections. Using 2010 Data, NOVA just barely passed the pop for three districts in PW, Fairfax, Loudoun, and the cities. The Republicans used this to their advantage with VA-10 reaching beyond the core NOVA, and VA-01 reaching in. In 2020, this core NOVA is projected around 3.4 districts of the 11. That's still impressive growth, even if it doesn't demand a fourth district. Even more impressive when you remember that every 11 people added to the state raises the district pop requirements by 1, AKA a miniature version of the California paradox. This distribution favors the democrats, since they have NOVA votes to add into a 4th seat and make it competitive if they are nice, or it allows four districts to have ~70% of their pop in NOVA and 30% cracked outside, if Dems are aggressive.

Interesting.  If Fairfax + Loudoun + PW + Arlington + Alexandria (and I'm assuming by "cities" you mean the cities within Fairfax and other counties that aren't counted in the county population totals) = 3.4, then I think it would be pretty easy and fair to give Dems 4 districts.  The bulk of the population growth is probably in Loudoun so they could cut out most or all of the PW part of the 10th district while still keeping it lean democrat.  Then extend the PW + Fairfax vote out into a 4th district that runs south toward Richmond.  That seems like the fairest and most cohesive way to clean this up.

1 district based primarily in Arlington + Alexandria with some inner Fairfax.  (very Safe D)

1 district based primarily in Loudoun. (Lean D) (basically the Wexton district but slightly less D)

1 district that's almost all Fairfax.  (Safe D)

1 district that's primarily in Prince William with some Fairfax and some extensions south.  (strong lean D)

[lfromnj]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded.  

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

Everything is with current projections. Using 2010 Data, NOVA just barely passed the pop for three districts in PW, Fairfax, Loudoun, and the cities. The Republicans used this to their advantage with VA-10 reaching beyond the core NOVA, and VA-01 reaching in. In 2020, this core NOVA is projected around 3.4 districts of the 11. That's still impressive growth, even if it doesn't demand a fourth district. Even more impressive when you remember that every 11 people added to the state raises the district pop requirements by 1, AKA a miniature version of the California paradox. This distribution favors the democrats, since they have NOVA votes to add into a 4th seat and make it competitive if they are nice, or it allows four districts to have ~70% of their pop in NOVA and 30% cracked outside, if Dems are aggressive.

Interesting.  If Fairfax + Loudoun + PW + Arlington + Alexandria (and I'm assuming by "cities" you mean the cities within Fairfax and other counties that aren't counted in the county population totals) = 3.4, then I think it would be pretty easy and fair to give Dems 4 districts.  The bulk of the population growth is probably in Loudoun so they could cut out most or all of the PW part of the 10th district while still keeping it lean democrat.  Then extend the PW + Fairfax vote out into a 4th district that runs south toward Richmond.  That seems like the fairest and most cohesive way to clean this up.

1 district based primarily in Arlington + Alexandria with some inner Fairfax.  (very Safe D)

1 district based primarily in Loudoun. (Lean D) (basically the Wexton district but slightly less D)

1 district that's almost all Fairfax.  (Safe D)

1 district that's primarily in Prince William with some Fairfax and some extensions south.  (strong lean D)

A loudon based district without going into fairfax or PWC would be actually lean R. I drew one RN thats +5 Trump and I underpopulated by 50k rurals to account for rurals.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded. 

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

fairfax county, which might have as much population as the rest of the major NOVA counties/cities combined, is barely growing relative to the state at large, so the factor isn’t as massive as you’d expect

It's gained about 70,000 since 2010, which is like 5 or 6% growth so far.   Not as big as Loudoun's 90,000 person growth, which is closer to 30%, but still high when you consider that there are counties in SW Virginia that have lost about 8 or 9% of their population since 2010.  Fairfax's population might be "low" relative to the state at large simply because other parts of NoVa have grown so rapidly they are weighting up the average for the entire state.

Also by 4, I should have clarified that I mean 4 based in NoVa but not necessarily entirely in NoVa. 

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BPaves/status/1234647938011406337

[Oryxslayer]

Not that this bill has amendments so that the commission no longer truly an attempt by the GOP to hold some say in this as they lose control of the state. The bill was opposed by  Filler-Corn for instance until the amendments.

Read more here: https://mynorthwest.com/1744814/after-delay-virginia-democrats-advance-redistricting/

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1235680451039293455

Hey look it's that dirty trick I expected earlier.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1235680451039293455

Hey look it's that dirty trick I expected earlier.

Party leadership literally saving idiot progressives from themselves.

[Idaho Conservative]

It passed

[Mr.Phips]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass. 

[Idaho Conservative]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass. 

Why?

[Mr.Phips]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass. 

Why?

Because of the backup plan for when the commission deadlocks.  Redistricting power going to the right wing state Supreme Court is unacceptable.

[lfromnj]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass.  

Why?

Because of the backup plan for when the commission deadlocks.  Redistricting power going to the right wing state Supreme Court is unacceptable.

https://twitter.com/SchneiderG/status/1236373907881558017

Party leadership literally saving idiot progressives from themselves.

btw it was more a mix of progressives in NOVA and swing seat moderates but whatever. Its hillarious how split Ds are with regards to redistricting, much more so than Rs in MOST states. Its so easy for Republicans to either bribe moderates,or good government reformers, or Minority legislators.

[Nyvin]

As far as I can tell,  there are no changes made to this amendment,  it still gives the State Supreme Court pretty much unregulated control of map making if the commission deadlocks,  which is god awful.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats should continue to gerrymander until there is a national consensus on this issue.  Why do Democrats always stupidly hold themselves to a higher standard?  If the GOP is going to continue to gerrymander throughout the south then Dems need to balance that out in states like Virginia. 

[lfromnj]

I am still confused about what exactly is happening Rn but if the amendment has passed and passes the electorate in 2020 the VA rs should push for this map using the state supreme court tie breaker

Its a 5D 6 R map with the only seat that is within 10 points being VA 2 which moves from Trump +3.5 to Trump +7.9 which would make Luria the sure loser in 2018 and would probably lose in 2022 due to the inelasticity of this district, both AA districts have similar compositions to the current one at 44% for VA 3 and 46% for VA 4. Spanberger gets screwed here from Trump +7 to Trump +14 . So Likely/Safe R there. And VA 5th stays at Trump +14. VA 10 goes to Clinton +26 and VA 1 is Trump +15. Anyway dont see any trends really vulnerable unless Hanover county starts zooming left in Suburban richmond

Each District has a clear COI or two within here IMO
3 Concentric NOVA, one exurban NOVA + tidewater which isnt super large, Shenandoah VA 6, Richmond gets split into black urban east and western white suburban with a few rurals. VA 2 is a bit ugly but still mostly white Hampton roads while VA 3 is black hampton roads. Roanake + SW  VA 9. Only problem is VA 5 is always the oddball out with no clear COI.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So Virginia Democrats just signed Luria’s and Spanberger’s death warrants. Nice.

[windjammer]

So Virginia Democrats just signed Luria’s and Spanberger’s death warrants. Nice.

To be honest,
Democrats appointed 3 of the 7 Justices. I'm not sure if all republicans appointed justices are such partisan hacks.

[Zaybay]

I doubt that the every GOP justice would want to throw away their credibility, future, and gravitas for the congressional GOP. And before anyone says "of course they will, they're GOP justices!", we've already seen Republican justices go against the party when it comes to gerrymandering all the time, from NC to OH to PA.

Whats more likely is just a rather bland, fair-ish map. Its not the gerrymander that the Dems could have made, but its at least a bit more kind to the Democrats than the current map.

[lfromnj]

I doubt that the every GOP justice would want to throw away their credibility, future, and gravitas for the congressional GOP. And before anyone says "of course they will, they're GOP justices!", we've already seen Republican justices go against the party when it comes to gerrymandering all the time, from NC to OH to PA.

Whats more likely is just a rather bland, fair-ish map. Its not the gerrymander that the Dems could have made, but its at least a bit more kind to the Democrats than the current map.

In NC the case was decided on partisan lines and in PA it was one D judge joining the 2 Republican judges.

[Zaybay]

I doubt that the every GOP justice would want to throw away their credibility, future, and gravitas for the congressional GOP. And before anyone says "of course they will, they're GOP justices!", we've already seen Republican justices go against the party when it comes to gerrymandering all the time, from NC to OH to PA.

Whats more likely is just a rather bland, fair-ish map. Its not the gerrymander that the Dems could have made, but its at least a bit more kind to the Democrats than the current map.

In NC the case was decided on partisan lines and in PA it was one D judge joining the 2 Republican judges.

I was referring to all of the court cases that have dealt with gerrymandering, such as ones that have faced superior courts, not just the ones that the supreme courts of each state have faced.